Jinjun Xue

How High is Urban Unemployment in China

Rapid economic growth and radical structural transformation pose a challenge to official statisticians as they seek to encompass new economic activities and phenomena. The accuracy of official statistics is liable to come into question. Urban unemployment in China is a good example. This paper estimates the urban unemployment rate using administrative statistics, population census data and a recent sample survey data set, and provides a critique showing in some detail how and why Chinese unemployment statistics are a minefield for the unwary and unemployment is so difficult to measure. Nevertheless, it is found that the urban unemployment rate rose rapidly over the 1990s and exceeded 11% in 1999 and 2000. The paper concludes by considering the implications of the findings for understanding unemployment, for policy, and for the collection of statistics.

Carbon footprint of China's belt and road

Four years ago, China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative in an effort to lead globalization and regional economic cooperation with countries situated along the land-based “Silk Road Economic Belt” and the oceangoing “Maritime Silk Road.” The initiative promotes trade between China and

Income Determination and Income Discrimination in Shenzhen

Shenzhen is not only one of the fastest-growing urban agglomerations in mainland China, Shenzhen also stands for a unique, most rapid and successful transformation into an urban market economy. How important are personal characteristics, social norms and policy-related discriminatory factors for income determination in such an extraordinary city? This paper estimates the income effect of non-productivity-related discriminatory factors (like personal characteristics, social norms and policies), compared with productivity-related returns on human capital. The design of the Shenzhen Household Survey 2005 enables the inclusion of a large set of discriminating factors in a Mincer Becker type of income model, together with a unique look at the migrant population in this urban centre. The results show that the human capital approach holds. Strong evidence is also found of a significant influence of social norms and policies, which is particularly relevant in a developing and transitional economy, even in such an exceptional city. The most important discriminating factor appears to be the hukou registration system. The on-going existence of these non-productivity-related discriminating factors can be regarded as indicative of an on-going process of transition towards a fully functioning market economy.

GLOBALIZATION, LIBERALIZATION AND INCOME INEQUALITY: THE CASE OF CHINA

This paper studies the mutual effects of globalization, liberalization and income inequality using a case study of China. Comparing the trends of economic growth and income distribution, we found that the economic reform and opening-up policy promoted Chinas rapid growth while inducing an expansion in income disparity. We also found that the income gap had been a force driving Chinas high growth in its earlier transition period but began to be an obstacle as the Chinese economy became more globalized and liberalized. To enhance future economic development, China must reduce this inequality.

Growth with Inequality:An International Comparison on Income Distribution

In the era of globalization and liberalization, the world is enjoying high growth as well as suffering from the ill-effects of unequal distribution of its economic outcomes. The activities of anti-government demonstrations in China and across the world via the Occupy Wall Street Movement highlight that inequality has become an international phenomenon. It is apparent in both poor countries under authoritarianism and rich countries governed by a democratic regime. Thus, inequality has become not only a hurdle to development but also a threat to social and political stability. The spread of the Jasmine Revolution across parts of North Africa and the Arab Spring are illustrative of what can happen under certain circumstances. This book confirms the inconsistencies between high growth and increasing inequality via a series of case studies across 11 countries, numerous regions, and OECD members. Many of the case studies draw upon original household surveys. Our findings indicate the seriousness of income inequality, explore factors that have caused the inequality and analyze their economic and social consequences. The book raises, and deals with, three key questions: (1) Can high growth reduce inequality gradually? (2) Can government intervention be effective in equalizing income distribution? (3) Is the income disparity an engine for, or an obstacle of, high growth? Contents: Globalization, Liberalization, Growth and Income Inequality: Growth and Inequality in China Growth and Inequality in Hong Kong Growth and Inequality in the United States Growth and Inequality in India Growth and Inequality in Germany Growth and Inequality in Korea Growth and Inequality in the UK Growth and Inequality in Indonesia Growth and Inequality in Thailand Growth and Inequality in Singapore Growth and Inequality in Japan Factor and Policy Analysis on Income Inequality: Informal Employment and Income Disparity Educational Disparity and Income Disparity Housing Inequality and Underlying Factors in Urban China Agriculture Profitability and Income Disparity Labor Migration and Income Inequality Income Inequality, Labor Migration and the Lewis Tuning Point Trade-offs and Complementarities Between Growth and Inequality in OECD Countries Readership: Researchers, students, government officers and general readers interested in income distribution studies. Key Features: Income disparity is a hot topic in the 21st century. This book reflects the latest developments of economic growth and income disparity with case studies of 11 countries. It reveals how serious is the inequality, where inequality comes from and how to deal with these issues The book contains basic theories and analysis and methodologies for the subject of income distribution which helps readers to have a better understanding about growth and inequality and learn how to analyze the issues The empirical researchers conducted in the book are based on original household surveys and the latest public data. It displays a real picture of the countries with reliable data The authors are leading experts of the field and are from countries like China, India, Korea, Japan, the UK, the USA and Germany. They elaborate on the economic growth and income disparity in depth. Meanwhile, the emerging economies like China and India are main targets in the book

PRODUCTION SHARING, DEMAND SPILLOVERS AND CO2 EMISSIONS: THE CASE OF CHINESE REGIONS IN GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS

Recent trade literature highlights production sharing among economies [Johnson, R and G Noguera (2012). Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added. Journal of International Economics, 86(2), 224–236), and some studies report that 20–25% of CO2 emissions can be attributed to international trade [Peters, G, J Minx, C Weber and O Edenhofer (2011). Growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 to 2008. Proceedings the National Academy of Sciences USA, 108(21), 8903–8908.]. However, the mechanism explaining how and to what extent production sharing affects CO2 emissions remains unclear. This study, as an extension of [Meng, B, J Xue, K Feng, D Guan and X Fu (2013a). China’s interregional spillover of carbon emissions and domestic supply chains. Energy Policy, 61, 1305–1321.], adopts the perspective of demand spillovers to provide new insights regarding the position of Chinese domestic-regions’ production in Global Value Chains (GVCs) and their associated CO2 emissions. To this end, we employed a new type of World Input-Output Database (WIOD) in which China’s domestic interregional input–output table for 2007 is endogenously embedded. The pattern of China’s regional demand spillovers across both domestic regions and countries is revealed by employing this new database. These results were then connected to endowments theory, which helps to make sense of the empirical results. It is found that China’s regions are located relatively upstream in GVCs, and had CO2 emissions in net exports, which were entirely predicted by the environmental extended Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek (HOV) model. Our study points to micro policy instruments to combat climate change: for example, tax reform for energy inputs that helps to change the production pattern, which then has an impact on trade patterns and so forth.

The emission reduction effect and economic impact of an energy tax vs. a carbon tax in China : a dynamic CGE model analysis

Carbon tax and energy tax are among the hot discussions in China. This study conducts simulation studies on them with a CGE model and analyzes their economic impacts, especially on the energy-intensive sectors. The Chinese economy is affected at an acceptable level by the two taxes in different scenarios. The import and export of energy-intensive industries are changed, leading to improved domestic competitiveness. Compared with implementing a single tax, a combined carbon-energy tax reduces more emissions with relatively smaller economic costs. For China, the sooner such taxes are launched, the smaller the economic costs and the more significant emission reductions.

Consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions accounting with capital stock change highlights dynamics of fast-developing countries

Traditional consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions accounting attributed the gap between consumption-based and production-based emissions to international trade. Yet few attempts have analyzed the temporal deviation between current emissions and future consumption, which can be explained through changes in capital stock. Here we develop a dynamic model to incorporate capital stock change in consumption-based accounting. The new model is applied using global data for 1995–2009. Our results show that global emissions embodied in consumption determined by the new model are smaller than those obtained from the traditional model. The emissions embodied in global capital stock increased steadily during the period. However, capital plays very different roles in shaping consumption-based emissions for economies with different development characteristics. As a result, the dynamic model yields similar consumption-based emissions estimation for many developed countries comparing with the traditional model, but it highlights the dynamics of fast-developing countries.Traditional carbon accounting attributes gap between consumption- and production-based emissions to international trade. The authors develop a dynamic model that incorporates capital stock change and find it improves estimates for fast-developing countries.

Consumption and Savings of Migrant Households: 2008–14

China’s economic growth can be divided into two phases: the export-oriented phase and the domestic demand-driven phase. The main dividing point is the onset of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In late 2008 and early 2009, China’s exports fell by more than 20 per cent, which alerted Chinese policymakers to the unreliability of growth depending purely on exports. Government spending on domestic infrastructure was the main driver of China’s economic recovery from the GFC. Thereafter, many other policies were enacted to stimulate domestic demand, including increasing public sector wages and agricultural price subsidies, increasing public holidays to encourage tourism, providing subsidies for farmers to purchase electrical goods and cars and speeding up social insurance reform to reduce precautionary savings. To date, the transition from export-led to domestic demand-driven growth is ongoing, and its success, to a large extent, depends on household consumption and saving responses.