Jinnan Wang

Spatial and temporal trends in the mortality burden of air pollution in China: 2004–2012

While recent assessments have quantified the burden of air pollution at the national scale in China, air quality managers would benefit from assessments that disaggregate health impacts over regions and over time. We took advantage of a new 10×10km satellite-based PM2.5 dataset to analyze spatial and temporal trends of air pollution health impacts in China, from 2004 to 2012. Results showed that national PM2.5 related deaths from stroke, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer increased from approximately 800,000 cases in 2004 to over 1.2 million cases in 2012. The health burden exhibited strong spatial variations, with high attributable deaths concentrated in regions including the Beijing-Tianjin Metropolitan Region, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Sichuan Basin, Shandong, Wuhan Metropolitan Region, Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan, Henan, and Anhui, which have heavy air pollution, high population density, or both. Increasing trends were found in most provinces, but with varied growth rates. While there was some evidence for improving air quality in recent years, this was offset somewhat by the countervailing influences of in-migration together with population growth. We recommend that priority areas for future national air pollution control policies be adjusted to better reflect the spatial hotspots of health burdens. Satellite-based exposure and health impact assessments can be a useful tool for tracking progress on both air quality and population health burden reductions.

Can China Comply with Its 12th Five-Year Plan on Industrial Emissions Control: A Structural Decomposition Analysis

Chinas rapid economic growth has caused serious environmental problems, resulting in the implementation of two major measures-end-of-pipe facilities and the phasing out of backward capacity-to reduce Chinas industrial emissions as part of its 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP, 2006-2010). It is important to determine whether China can meet the targets set forth in its 12th FYP (2011-2015) for industrial pollution reduction using these same solutions. In this paper, structural decomposition analysis (SDA) was used to identify the contributions of the adopted measures-as well as other underlying factors-and to evaluate the feasibility of the reduction target in Chinas 12th FYP. Results show that the decrease in major industrial pollutant emissions achieved during the 11th FYP resulted from improved technological efficiency, including end-of-pipe abatement efficiency and pollutant generation intensity. The same measures adopted during Chinas 12th FYP can address the problem of industrial wastewater emissions resulting from economic growth when the economic structure is kept constant. But it may not fulfill its commitment of reducing industrial atmospheric pollutants emissions unless the economic structure and growth patterns are drastically reformed.

The nexus between urbanization and PM2.5 related mortality in China

The launch of Chinas new national urbanization plan, coupled with increasing concerns about air pollution, calls for better understandings of the nexus between urbanization and the air pollution-related health. Based on refined estimates of PM2.5 related mortality in China, we developed an Urbanization-Excess Deaths Elasticity (U-EDE) indicator to measure the marginal PM2.5 related mortality caused by urbanization. We then applied statistical models to estimate U-EDE and examined the modification effects of income on U-EDE. Urbanization in China between 2004 and 2012 led to increased PM2.5 related mortality. A 1% increase in urbanization was associated with a 0.32%, 0.14%, and 0.50% increase in PM2.5 related mortality of lung cancer, stroke, and ischemic heart disease. U-EDEs were modified by income with an inverted U curve, i.e., lower marginal impacts at the lowest and highest income levels. In addition, we projected the future U-EDE trend of China as a whole and found that China had experienced the peak of U-EDE and entered the second half of the inverted U-shaped curve. In the near future, national average U-EDE in China will decline along with the improvement of income level if no dramatic changes happen. However, the decreased U-EDE only implies that marginal PM2.5-related mortality brought by urbanization would decrease in China. Total health damage of urbanization will keep going up in the predictable future because the U-EDE is always positive.

Unequal Exchange of Air Pollution and Economic Benefits Embodied in China’s Exports

As the worlds factory, China has enjoyed huge economic benefits from international export but also suffered severe environmental consequences. Most studies investigating unequal environmental exchange associated with trade took China as a homogeneous entity ignoring considerable inequality and outsourcing of pollution within China. This paper traces the regional mismatch of export-induced economic benefits and environmental costs along national supply chains by using the latest multiregional input-output model and emission inventory for 2012. The results indicate that approximately 56% of the national GDP induced by exports has been received by developed coastal regions, while about 72% of air pollution embodied in national exports, measured as aggregated atmospheric pollutant equivalents (APE), has been mainly incurred by less developed central and western regions. For each yuan of export-induced GDP, developed regions only incurred 0.4-0.6 g APE emissions, whereas less developed regions from western or central China had to suffer 4-8 times the amount of emissions. This is due to poorer regions providing lower value added and higher emission-intensive inputs and having lower environmental standards and less efficient technologies. Our results may pave a way to mitigate the unequal relationship between developed and less developed regions from the perspective of environment-economy nexus.

Environmental incidents in China: Lessons from 2006 to 2015

Environmental incidents are among the most significant environmental challenges in China. Hundreds of environmental incidents occur every year, endangering human health and ecosystems. In this paper, we conducted an analytical study of environmental incidents from 2006 to 2015 in China. We first examined the spatiotemporal characteristics of the total 5213 incidents based on the statistical data collected from the China Statistical Yearbook on Environment. We then examined the characteristics of the sources of risk, causes of harm and resulting damage of environmental incidents based on first-hand data from 1369 cases collected by the Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) of China, which obtains detailed incident information. The results show that (1) there was a significant downward trend in the overall number of environmental incidents between 2006 and 2015, and developed eastern regions were high incidence areas; (2) hazardous chemicals were the main risk stressors; (3) production safety accidents and traffic accidents were the two major causes, and (4) most of these incidents resulted in polluted water and air. This paper is the first to provide a longitudinal analysis of the full scope of environmental incidents across the different regions of China, which has useful implications for policy-making and environmental management.

Revealing Environmental Inequality Hidden in China’s Inter-regional Trade

Trade among regions or countries not only allows the exchange of goods and services but also leads to the transfer of pollution. The unequal exchange of goods and services and associated value added and pollution may be subject to environmental inequality in China given that Chinese provinces are in different development stages. By using the latest multiregional input-output tables and the sectoral air pollutant emission inventory in 2012, we traced emissions and value added along Chinas domestic supply chains. Here, we show that 62%-76% of the consumption-based air-pollutant emissions of richer regions (Beijing-Tianjin, East Coast and South Coast) were outsourced to other regions; however, approximately 70% of the value added triggered by these regions final consumption was retained within the region. Some provinces in western China, such as Guizhou, Ningxia, and Yunnan, not only incurred net pollution inflows but also suffered a negative balance of value added when trading with rich provinces. Addressing such inequalities could provide not only a basis for determining each provinces responsibility for pollution control but also a model for other emerging economies.