Jiří Borovička

A 500-kiloton airburst over Chelyabinsk and an enhanced hazard from small impactors

Most large (over a kilometre in diameter) near-Earth asteroids are now known, but recognition that airbursts (or fireballs resulting from nuclear-weapon-sized detonations of meteoroids in the atmosphere) have the potential to do greater damage than previously thought has shifted an increasing portion of the residual impact risk (the risk of impact from an unknown object) to smaller objects. Above the threshold size of impactor at which the atmosphere absorbs sufficient energy to prevent a ground impact, most of the damage is thought to be caused by the airburst shock wave, but owing to lack of observations this is uncertain. Here we report an analysis of the damage from the airburst of an asteroid about 19 metres (17 to 20 metres) in diameter southeast of Chelyabinsk, Russia, on 15 February 2013, estimated to have an energy equivalent of approximately 500 (±100) kilotons of trinitrotoluene (TNT, where 1 kiloton of TNT = 4.185×1012 joules). We show that a widely referenced technique of estimating airburst damage does not reproduce the observations, and that the mathematical relations based on the effects of nuclear weapons—almost always used with this technique—overestimate blast damage. This suggests that earlier damage estimates near the threshold impactor size are too high. We performed a global survey of airbursts of a kiloton or more (including Chelyabinsk), and find that the number of impactors with diameters of tens of metres may be an order of magnitude higher than estimates based on other techniques. This suggests a non-equilibrium (if the population were in a long-term collisional steady state the size-frequency distribution would either follow a single power law or there must be a size-dependent bias in other surveys) in the near-Earth asteroid population for objects 10 to 50 metres in diameter, and shifts more of the residual impact risk to these sizes.

The trajectory, structure and origin of the Chelyabinsk asteroidal impactor

Earth is continuously colliding with fragments of asteroids and comets of various sizes. The largest encounter in historical times occurred over the Tunguska river in Siberia in 1908, producing an airburst of energy equivalent to 5–15 megatons of trinitrotoluene (1 kiloton of trinitrotoluene represents an energy of 4.185 × 1012 joules). Until recently, the next most energetic airburst events occurred over Indonesia in 2009 and near the Marshall Islands in 1994, both with energies of several tens of kilotons. Here we report an analysis of selected video records of the Chelyabinsk superbolide of 15 February 2013, with energy equivalent to 500 kilotons of trinitrotoluene, and details of its atmospheric passage. We found that its orbit was similar to the orbit of the two-kilometre-diameter asteroid 86039 (1999 NC43), to a degree of statistical significance sufficient to suggest that the two were once part of the same object. The bulk strength—the ability to resist breakage—of the Chelyabinsk asteroid, of about one megapascal, was similar to that of smaller meteoroids and corresponds to a heavily fractured single stone. The asteroid broke into small pieces between the altitudes of 45 and 30 kilometres, preventing more-serious damage on the ground. The total mass of surviving fragments larger than 100 grams was lower than expected.

Two components in meteor spectra

Abstract Through an analysis of fireball spectra it was found that meteor heads consist of two parts with quite different temperatures. The spectra of both parts can be fitted with a simple thermal equilibrium model. The temperature of the main spectrum is about 4000 K, and that of the second spectrum is about 10,000 K. There is little evidence for a dependence of temperatures on the meteor velocity. However, the mass and luminosity of the second part relative to the main part grows rapidly with meteor velocity. The high temperature part forms only 0.02% of the meteor vapor envelope in slow meteors but accounts for more than 5% in fast meteors. In fast meteors most of the light is produced in this part, mainly by the CaII lines. This fact influences the meteor luminous efficiency and color index. The traditional classification of meteor spectra reflects the variable intensity of the second spectrum. In the high temperature region the density is also enhanced. This region is very probably related to the meteor shock wave.

Atmospheric deceleration and light curves of Draconid meteors and implications for the structure of cometary dust

Aims. The observation of Draconid meteors was used to infer information on the structure, porosity, strength, and composition of the dust of comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner. Methods. Stereoscopic video and photographic observations of six faint and one bright Draconid meteors provided meteor morphologies, heights, light curves, and atmospheric decelerations. The spectrum of the bright meteor was also obtained. We developed a simple model of meteoroid ablation and fragmentation. The model assumes that cometary meteoroids are composed of constituent grains. Results. By fitting the observed decelerations and light curves, we have found that the grain mass range was relatively narrow in all meteoroids but differed from case to case. Some meteoroids were coarse grained with grain masses 10 −9 to 10 −10 kg, others were fine grained with grain masses one order of magnitude lower. Individual mm-sized meteoroids contained tens of thousands to almost a million grains (assuming grain density close to 3000 kg m −3 ). The meteoroids were porous aggregates of grains, having porosities of about 90% and bulk densities of 300 kg m −3 . Grain separation started after the surface of the meteoroid received energy of 10 6 Jm −2 . The separation continued during the first half of meteor trajectories. We call this phase erosion. The energy needed for grain erosion was 15−30× lower than the energy of vaporization. However, 30% of the largest meteoroid was resistant to thermal erosion; this part disrupted later mechanically under a very low dynamic pressure of 5 kPa. The relative abundances of Na, Mg, and Fe were nearly chondritic, but differential ablation caused preferential loss of sodium at the beginning of the trajectory.

Atmospheric trajectories and light curves of shower meteors

Double station data on 496 meteors belonging to several meteor showers were obtained within the program of the video meteor observations during years 1998-2001. Analyzed meteors cover a range of photometric masses from 10 -7 to 10 -4 kg with a corresponding range of maximum brightness from +4.7 to -2.1 absolute magnitude. Atmospheric trajectories of Perseid, Orionid and Leonid meteors are analysed. These typical cometary high velocity meteors are compared to Geminid meteors with probable asteroidal origin and Taurid meteors - another cometary shower with significantly lower entry velocity. The light curses of the studied meteors vary widely, but generally are nearly symmetrical with the point of maximum brightness located close the to middle of the luminous trajectory. Small differences between showers are reported. We found that the height data are in good agreement with the dust-ball model predictions. The only difference is the beginning height behaviour. The beginning heights of cometary meteors increase with increasing photometric mass. These meteoroids probably contain a volatile part which starts to ablate before we are able to detect the meteors. The Geminid meteors are a different case. They start to ablate suddenly and their beginning height is almost constant in the whole range of studied meteoroid masses. In this case we observe real beginnings of meteor ablation.

Time Resolved Spectroscopy of a Leonid Fireball Afterglow

Two video spectra of a meteoric afterglow were obtained for the first time during the 1999 Leonid aircraft campaign. The train was produced by a −13 magnitude Leonid fireball at a relatively low height between 91-75 km. The meteor spectrum has a strong hydrogen emission, proportional to 10–20 II atoms per one Fe atom The train spectrum consisted of a red continuum, yellow continuum, and about 50 atomic lines between 3700–9000 A. The yellow continuum, possibly due to NO2, was also detected in the persistent train. The red continuum is interpreted as a thermal radiation of dust from meteoric debris at about 1400 K. Evidence for secondary ablation is found in the afterglow. The atomic lines decayed within seconds of the meteor. The lines of Fe I, Mg I, Na I, Ca I, Ca II, Cr I, Mn I, K I, and possibly Al I were present in the glow together with the 5577 A forbidden O I line. The gas temperature in the train was close to 5000 K at the beginning and decayed to 1200 K within two seconds. However, thermal equilibrium was not satisfied for all populated levels.

Automation of the Czech part of the European fireball network: equipment, methods and first results

In the last several years the manually operated fish-eye cameras in the Czech part of the European fireball Network (EN) have been gradually replaced with new generation cameras, the modern and sophisticated completely autonomous fireball observatories (AFO), which were recently developed in the Czech Republic. The main motivation for construction of this new observing system was to continue in regular fireball observations and to make these observations more complex and efficient. In this paper we briefly describe basic design and work of this new instrument and its deployment at the Czech stations of the EN. The current dislocation of the individual stations and their equipment is also discussed. Along with this new modern instrument we developed also new software for measurement of photographic negatives which makes this time consuming work more efficient and easier. The AFOs provide us with data on fireballs far richer and more interesting than those we were able to get in the past. This is illustrated by the cases of two recently observed fireballs which were recorded by the AFOs. We describe the high precision of all the measureded values as well as the very detailed information about light curves in both cases.

Optical observations of enhanced activity of the 2005 Draconid meteor shower

Context. The enhanced activity of the Draconid meteor shower was observed on October 8, 2005 using video and photographic cameras. Aims. The aim of this paper is to use a higher than usual number of recorded meteors to look at some physical properties of the Draconid meteoroids, to describe the activity profile, and to infer meteor orbits. Methods. Video data on meteors are used for the determination of the meteor shower activity. Double station data provide precise beginning heights of the meteors as well as their radiants and orbits. Beginning heights and light curves of all meteors are used for investigation of meteoroid properties. Results. Only the descending branch of the enhanced activity was observed between 17:30 and 19 UT. The mass distribution index is similar to the 1998 return. Beginning heights of the Draconid meteors are several kilometres higher in comparison with other meteors of similar velocity. Light curves are nearly symmetrical, with a slight preference of early maxima. Both results are consistent with the very fragile nature of Draconid meteoroids.

High-resolution modelling of meteoroid ablation

Context. The structure and composition of meteoroids is of great interest because of the insight it provides into their parent asteroids and comets. Aims. Recently acquired, high-resolution video measurements of meteors will be used to evaluate two models of meteoroid ablation. Methods. Ten meteors were observed with the Canadian Automated Meteor Observatory (CAMO), which uses pairs of mirrors to track meteors telescopically in the sky with a resolution of up to 3 meters per pixel. Two meteoroid ablation models were used to fit the wide-field light curves and deceleration measurements of the meteors, and the wakes predicted by each model were compared to the wakes measured in the telescopic system. Results. Both models produced satisfactory fits to the wide field measurements, but both were very poor at predicting the narrow field brightness profiles of the meteors. Conclusions. Models of meteoroid fragmentation in the atmosphere need significant improvement to match observations. Data from the CAMO observatory mirror systems provide significant constraints and can be used in the development of a new model of meteoroid ablation.

Catalogue of representative meteor spectra

Aims. We present a library of low-resolution meteor spectra that includes sporadic meteors, members of minor meteor showers, and major meteor showers. These meteors are in the magnitude range from +2 to −3, corresponding to meteoroid sizes from 1 mm to 10 mm. Methods. Parallel double-station video observations allowed us to compute heliocentric orbits for all meteors. Most observations were performed during the periods of activity of major meteor showers in the years between 2006 and 2012. Spectra are classified according to relative intensities of the low-temperature emission lines of Mg, Na, and Fe. Results. Shower meteors were found to be of normal composition, except for Southern δ Aquariids and some members of the Geminid shower, neither of which have Na in the meteor spectra. Variations in Na content are typical for the Geminid shower. Three populations of Na-free mereoroids were identified. The first population are iron meteorites, which have an asteroidal-chondritic origin, but one meteoroid with low perihelion (0.11 AU) was found among the iron meteorites. The second population were Sun-approaching meteoroids in which sodium is depleted by thermal desorption. The third population were Na-free meteoroids of cometary origin. Long exposure to cosmic rays on the surface of comets in the Oort cloud and disintegration of this crust might be the origin of this population of meteoroids.