Jiri Parenica

Incremental value of biomarkers to clinical variables for mortality prediction in acutely decompensated heart failure: the Multinational Observational Cohort on Acute Heart Failure (MOCA) study.

AIM This study aims to evaluate the incremental value of plasma biomarkers to traditional clinical variables for risk stratification of 30-day and one-year mortality in acutely decompensated heart failure (ADHF). METHODS AND RESULTS Through an international collaborative network, individual patient data on 5306 patients hospitalized for ADHF were collected. The all-cause mortality rate was 11.7% at 30 days and 32.9% at one year. The clinical prediction model (age, gender, blood pressure on admission, estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), sodium and hemoglobin levels, and heart rate) had a c-statistic of 0.74 for 30-day mortality and 0.73 for one-year mortality. Several biomarkers measured at presentation improved risk stratification when added to the clinical model. At 30 days, the net reclassification improvement (NRI) was 28.7% for mid-regional adrenomedullin (MR-proADM; p<0.001) and 25.5% for soluble (s)ST2 (p<0.001). At one year, sST2 (NRI 10.3%), MR-proADM (NRI 9.1%), amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP; NRI 9.1%), mid-regional proatrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP; NRI 7.4%), B-type natriuretic peptide (NRI 5.5%) and C-reactive protein (CRP; NRI 5.3%) reclassified patients with ADHF (p<0.05 for all). CRP also markedly improved risk stratification of patients with ADHF as a dual biomarker combination with MR-proADM (NRI 36.8% [p<0.001] for death at 30 days) or with sST2 (NRI 20.3%; [p<0.001] for one-year mortality). CONCLUSION In this study, biomarkers provided incremental value for risk stratification of ADHF patients. Biomarkers such as sST2, MR-proADM, natriuretic peptides and CRP, reflecting different pathophysiologic pathways, add prognostic value to clinical risk factors for predicting both short-term and one-year mortality in ADHF.

Baseline characteristics and hospital mortality in the Acute Heart Failure Database (AHEAD) Main registry

IntroductionThe prognosis of patients hospitalized with acute heart failure (AHF) is poor and risk stratification may help clinicians guide care. The objectives of the Acute Heart Failure Database (AHEAD) registry are to assess patient characteristics, etiology, treatment and outcome of AHF.MethodsThe AHEAD main registry includes patients hospitalized for AHF in seven centers with a Catheterization Laboratory Service in the Czech Republic. The data were collected from September 2006 to October 2009. The inclusion criteria for the database adhere to the European guidelines for AHF (2005) and patients were systematically classified according to the basic syndromes, type and etiology of AHF.ResultsOf 4,153 patients, 12.7% died during hospitalization. The median length of hospitalization was 7.1 days. Mean age of patients was 71.5 ± 12.4 years; men were younger (68.6 ± 12.4 years) compared to women (75.5 ± 11.5 years) (P < 0.001). De-novo heart failure was seen in 58.3% of the patients. According to the classification of heart failure syndromes, acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) was reported in 55.3%, hypertensive AHF in 4.4%, pulmonary edema in 18.4%, cardiogenic shock in 14.7%, high output failure in 3.3%, and right heart failure in 3.8%. The mortality of cardiogenic shock was 62.7%, of right AHF 16.7%, of pulmonary edema 7.1%, of high output HF 6.1%, whereas the mortality of hypertensive AHF or ADHF was < 2.5%. According to multivariate analyses, low systolic blood pressure, low cholesterol level, hyponatremia, hyperkalemia, the use of inotropic agents and norepinephrine were predictive parameters for in-hospital mortality in patients without cardiogenic shock. Severe left ventricular dysfunction and renal insufficiency were predictive parameters for mortality in patients with cardiogenic shock. Invasive ventilation and age over 70 years were the most important predictive factors for mortality in both genders with or without cardiogenic shock.ConclusionsThe AHEAD Main registry provides up-to-date information on the etiology, treatment and hospital outcomes of patients hospitalized with AHF. The results highlight the highest risk patients.

Association Between Elevated Blood Glucose and Outcome in Acute Heart Failure Results From an International Observational Cohort

OBJECTIVE The aim of this analysis was to assess the association between elevated blood glucose level and mortality in acute heart failure (AHF). BACKGROUND Elevated blood glucose has been reported to be prognostically meaningful in patients with cardiac diagnoses, such as coronary artery disease. The short-term prognostic impact of hyperglycemia in AHF is unknown, however. METHODS In a multinational cohort of AHF, we examined the ability of blood glucose concentrations at presentation to predict all-cause mortality by 30 days. Fully adjusted models for prognosis included a previous diagnosis of diabetes mellitus as a covariate. RESULTS A total of 6,212 subjects with AHF (mean age, 72 years; 52.5% male) were studied; the median blood glucose concentration on arrival at the hospital was 7.5 mmol/l (135 mg/dl), and 41% had a previous diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM). After 30 days, 618 patients (10%) had died. Compared with survivors, decedents had significantly higher median blood glucose concentrations (8.9 mmol/l vs. 7.4 mmol/l; p < 0.0001). In the fully adjusted model, an elevated blood glucose level was an independent predictor of 30-day mortality in AHF (odds ratio: 2.19; 95% confidence interval: 1.69 to 2.83; p < 0.001). The risk associated with an elevated blood glucose level appeared consistent across all subgroups of patients, including patients with preserved (hazard ratio: 5.41; 95% confidence interval: 2.44 to 12.0; p < 0.0001) and impaired systolic function (hazard ratio: 2.37; 95% confidence interval: 1.57 to 3.59; p < 0.0001). Furthermore, in reclassification analyses, elevated blood glucose added significant prognostic information to clinical parameters alone (4.4% net reclassification improvement; p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS Among patients with AHF, blood glucose concentrations at presentation are powerfully prognostic for 30-day mortality, independent of a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus or other clinical variables. Because blood glucose is easily modifiable, it may represent a valid target for therapeutic intervention.

Direct Comparison of 4 Very Early Rule-Out Strategies for Acute Myocardial Infarction Using High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin I

Background: Four strategies for very early rule-out of acute myocardial infarction using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) have been identified. It remains unclear which strategy is most attractive for clinical application. Methods: We prospectively enrolled unselected patients presenting to the emergency department with symptoms suggestive of acute myocardial infarction. The final diagnosis was adjudicated by 2 independent cardiologists. Hs-cTnI levels were measured at presentation and after 1 hour in a blinded fashion. We directly compared all 4 hs-cTnI–based rule-out strategies: limit of detection (LOD, hs-cTnI<2 ng/L), single cutoff (hs-cTnI<5 ng/L), 1-hour algorithm (hs-cTnI<5 ng/L and 1-hour change<2 ng/L), and the 0/1-hour algorithm recommended in the European Society of Cardiology guideline combining LOD and 1-hour algorithm. Results: Among 2828 enrolled patients, acute myocardial infarction was the final diagnosis in 451 (16%) patients. The LOD approach ruled out 453 patients (16%) with a sensitivity of 100% (95% confidence interval [CI], 99.2%–100%), the single cutoff 1516 patients (54%) with a sensitivity of 97.1% (95% CI, 95.1%–98.3%), the 1-hour algorithm 1459 patients (52%) with a sensitivity of 98.4% (95% CI, 96.8%–99.2%), and the 0/1-hour algorithm 1463 patients (52%) with a sensitivity of 98.4% (95% CI, 96.8%–99.2%). Predefined subgroup analysis in early presenters (⩽2 hours) revealed significantly lower sensitivity (94.2%, interaction P=0.03) of the single cutoff, but not the other strategies. Two-year survival was 100% with LOD and 98.1% with the other strategies (P<0.01 for LOD versus each of the other strategies). Conclusions: All 4 rule-out strategies balance effectiveness and safety equally well. The single cutoff should not be applied in early presenters, whereas the 3 other strategies seem to perform well in this challenging subgroup. Clinical Trial Registration: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00470587.

Long-term survival following acute heart failure: The Acute Heart Failure Database Main registry (AHEAD Main)

BACKGROUND The in-hospital mortality of patients with acute heart failure (AHF) is reported to be 12.7% and mortality on day 30 after admission 17.2%. Less information is known about the long-term prognosis of those patients discharged after hospitalization. As such, the aim of this study was to investigate long-term survival in a cohort of patients who had been hospitalized for AHF and then discharged. METHODS The AHEAD Main registry includes 4153 patients hospitalized for AHF in 7 different medical centers, each with its own cathlab, in the Czech Republic. Patient survival rates were evaluated in 3438 patients who had survived to day 30 after admission, and were used as a measurement of long-term survival. RESULTS The most common etiologies were acute coronary syndrome (32.3%) and chronic ischemic heart disease (20.1%). The survival rate after day 30 following admission was 79.7% after 1 year and 64.5% after 3 years. No statistically significant difference in syndromes was found in survival after day 30. Independent predictors of a worse prognosis were defined as follows: age>70 years, comorbidities, severe left ventricular systolic dysfunction, valvular disease or ACS as an etiology of AHF. A better prognosis was defined for de-novo AHF patients, and those who were taking ACE inhibitors at the time of discharge. In a sub-analysis, high levels of natriuretic peptides were the most powerful predictors of high-risk, long-term mortality. CONCLUSION The AHEAD Main registry provides up-to-date information on the long-term prognosis of patients hospitalized with AHF. The 3-year survival of patients following day 30 of admission was 64.5%. Higher age, LV dysfunction, comorbidities and high levels of natriuretic peptides were the most powerful predictors of worse prognosis in long-term survival.

Precipitating factors and 90‐day outcome of acute heart failure: a report from the intercontinental GREAT registry

Several clinical conditions may precipitate acute heart failure (AHF) and influence clinical outcome. In this study we hypothesized that precipitating factors are independently associated with 90‐day risk of death in AHF.

Clinical Effect of Sex-Specific Cutoff Values of High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T in Suspected Myocardial Infarction.

Importance It is currently unknown whether the uniform (universal clinical practice for more than 2 decades) or 2 sex-specific cutoff levels are preferable when using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) levels in the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Objective To improve the management of suspected AMI in women by exploring sex-specific vs uniform cutoff levels for hs-cTnT. Design, Setting, and Participants In an ongoing prospective, diagnostic, multicenter study conducted at 9 emergency departments, the present study evaluated patients enrolled from April 21, 2006, through June 5, 2013. The participants included 2734 adults presenting with suspected AMI. Duration of follow-up was 2 years, and data analysis occurred from June 5 to December 21, 2015. Interventions The final diagnosis was centrally adjudicated by 2 independent cardiologists using all available information, including measurements of serial hs-cTnT blood concentrations twice: once using the uniform 99th percentile cutoff value level of 14 ng/L and once using sex-specific 99th percentile levels of hs-cTnT (women, 9 ng/L; men, 15.5 ng/L). Main Outcomes and Measures Diagnostic reclassification in women and men using sex-specific vs the uniform cutoff level in the diagnosis of AMI. Results Of the 2734 participants, 876 women (32%) and 1858 men (68%) were included. Median (interquartile range) age was 68 (55-77) and 59 (48-71) years, respectively. With the use of the uniform cutoff value, 127 women (14.5%) and 345 men (18.6%) received a final diagnosis of AMI. Among these, at emergency department presentation, levels of hs-cTnT were already above the uniform cutoff value in 427 patients (sensitivity, 91.3% [95% CI, 85%-95.6%] in women vs 90.7% [95% CI, 87.1%-93.5% in men]; specificity, 79.2% [95% CI, 76.1%-82.1%] in women vs 78.5% [95% CI, 76.4%-80.6%] in men). After readjudication using sex-specific 99th percentile levels, diagnostic reclassification regarding AMI occurred in only 3 patients: 0.11% (95% CI, 0.02-0.32) of all patients and 0.6% (95% CI, 0.13-1.85) of patients with AMI. The diagnosis in 2 women was upgraded from unstable angina to AMI, and the diagnosis in 1 man was downgraded from AMI to unstable angina. These diagnostic results were confirmed when using 2 alternative pairs of uniform and sex-specific cutoff values. Conclusions and Relevance The uniform 99th percentile should remain the standard of care when using hs-cTnT levels for the diagnosis of AMI.

The Effectiveness of Inodilators in Reducing Short Term Mortality among Patient with Severe Cardiogenic Shock: A Propensity-Based Analysis

Background The best catecholamine regimen for cardiogenic shock has been poorly evaluated. When a vasopressor is required to treat patients with the most severe form of cardiogenic shock, whether inodilators should be added or whether inopressors can be used alone has not been established. The purpose of this study was to compare the impact of these two strategies on short-term mortality in patients with severe cardiogenic shocks. Methods and Results Three observational cohorts of patients with decompensated heart failure were pooled to comprise a total of 1,272 patients with cardiogenic shocks. Of these 1,272 patients, 988 were considered to be severe because they required a vasopressor during the first 24 hours. We developed a propensity-score (PS) model to predict the individual probability of receiving one of the two regimens (inopressors alone or a combination) conditionally on baseline-measured covariates. The benefit of the treatment regimen on the mortality rate was estimated by fitting a weighted Cox regression model. A total of 643 patients (65.1%) died within the first 30 days (inopressors alone: 293 (72.0%); inopressors and inodilators: 350 (60.0%)). After PS weighting, we observed that the use of an inopressor plus an inodilator was associated with an improved short-term mortality (HR: 0.66 [0.55–0.80]) compared to inopressors alone. Conclusions In the most severe forms of cardiogenic shock where a vasopressor is immediately required, adding an inodilator may improve short-term mortality. This result should be confirmed in a randomized, controlled trial.

GRACE Score among Six Risk Scoring Systems (CADILLAC, PAMI, TIMI, Dynamic TIMI, Zwolle) Demonstrated the Best Predictive Value for Prediction of Long-Term Mortality in Patients with ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction.

Aim To compare the prognostic accuracy of six scoring models for up to three-year mortality and rates of hospitalisation due to acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in STEMI patients. Methods and Results A total of 593 patients treated with primary PCI were evaluated. Prospective follow-up of patients was ≥3 years. Thirty-day, one-year, two-year, and three-year mortality rates were 4.0%, 7.3%, 8.9%, and 10.6%, respectively. Six risk scores—the TIMI score and derived dynamic TIMI, CADILLAC, PAMI, Zwolle, and GRACE—showed a high predictive accuracy for six- and 12-month mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.73–0.85. The best predictive values for long-term mortality were obtained by GRACE. The next best-performing scores were CADILLAC, Zwolle, and Dynamic TIMI. All risk scores had a lower prediction accuracy for repeat hospitalisation due to ADHF, except Zwolle with the discriminatory capacity for hospitalisation up to two years (AUC, 0.80–0.83). Conclusions All tested models showed a high predictive value for the estimation of one-year mortality, but GRACE appears to be the most suitable for the prediction for a longer follow-up period. The tested models exhibited an ability to predict the risk of ADHF, especially the Zwolle model.

AHEAD score--Long-term risk classification in acute heart failure.

BACKGROUND The role of co-morbidities in the prognosis of patients hospitalized for AHF was examined using the AHEAD (A--atrial fibrillation, H--haemoglobin<130 g/l for men and 120 g/l for women (anaemia), E--elderly (age>70years), A--abnormal renal parameters (creatinine>130 μmol/l), D--diabetes mellitus) scoring system. METHODS AHEAD--multicentre prospective Czech registry of AHF patients; GREAT registry--international cohort of AHF patients. Data from 5846 consecutive patients hospitalized for AHF (AHEAD registry; derivation cohort) were analysed to build the AHEAD score. Each risk factor of the AHEAD score was counted as 1 point. The model was validated externally using an international cohort of similar patients in the GREAT registry (6315). RESULTS Main outcome was one year all-cause mortality. The mean age of patients was 72±12 years, with 61.6% of patients aged >70 years; 43.4% were women. Atrial fibrillation was present in 30.7%, anaemia in 38.2%, creatinine>130 mmol/l (abnormal renal parameters) in 30.1%, and diabetes mellitus in 44.0%. The mean AHEAD score was 2.1. In patients with AHEAD scores of 0-5, the one-year mortality rates were 13.6%, 23.4%, 32.0%, 41.1%, 47.7%, and 58.2%, respectively (p<0.001), and the 90 month mortality rates were 35.1%, 57.3%, 73.5%, 84.8%, 88.0%, and 91.7%, respectively (p<0.001). CONCLUSION The AHEAD is a simple scoring system based on the analysis of co-morbidities for the estimation of the short and long term prognosis of patients hospitalized for AHF.