Jo Jakobsen

Economic nationalism and FDI

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to focus on the relationship between economic nationalism and foreign direct investment (FDI) in emerging markets, seeking to establish whether public opinion and prevailing preferences regarding FDI affect the location decisions of multinational companies.Design/methodology/approach – Drawing on public opinion data from 42 non‐Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development countries 1990‐2005, the paper performs a time series cross‐section analysis of the relationship between economic nationalism and FDI. The first main variable measures the extent to which the public holds a positive view of major (domestic) companies. It is hypothesized that in societies where nationalist sentiments dominate, the public prefers indigenous to foreign firms. This induces host authorities to institute more stringent foreign investment rules, which deters FDI. Second, the paper also examines how the publics distribution along the left‐right axis affects FDI patterns. A left‐lea...

Why do poor countries suffer costly conflict? Unpacking per capita income and the onset of civil war

Empirical studies on the causes of civil war robustly show that poor countries are more likely to suffer civil war than rich ones. However, the interpretations of this finding differ. The literature proposes three different causal mechanisms: (1) poverty leads to grievances; (2) income proxies the opportunity-cost of rebelling; and (3) income proxies state capacity. Using factor analysis, logistic modeling and multiple imputation, we test which of the three possible explanations can best explain the link between poverty and conflict. We find per capita income to belong to a wealth/poverty dimension, and to have little in common with “pure” measures of grievance and state capacity. Thus our findings support the opportunity-cost argument. The wealth dimension is also shown to be the most important underlying cause of civil war.

Democratic peace and the norms of the public: a multilevel analysis of the relationship between regime type and citizens’ bellicosity, 1981–2008

The democratic peace literature has convincingly shown that democracies do not fight other democracies. Theoretical explanations of this empirical phenomenon often claim that the citizenry in democracies prefers peaceful resolution of interstate conflicts. Still, there is a dearth of studies exploring the public’s preferences and values directly. We seek to rectify this by investigating, in a novel way, the relationship between regime type and citizens’ bellicosity. A comprehensive multilevel research design is employed, with data spanning 72 countries over the period of 1981–2008. This enables us to test one of the theoretical mainstays of the democratic peace thesis, viz., that regime type helps shape individuals’ attitudes toward war-fighting. Our results lend special support to normative democratic peace theory: Citizens of democracies are significantly more pacifistic than citizens of non-democracies. This result upholds when we rigorously control for other relevant factors, including specific characteristics of individuals and rival theoretical explanations.

Fool's gold: major sport events and foreign direct investment

Whether or not a city or a country should bid to host the Olympics or one of the big international football tournaments is often the source of heated debates. One question that is always raised is whether hosting such an event yields positive economic benefits. Using data from the period 1970–2009 we investigate whether there is a link between hosting a major sport event and the amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) a country receives. We employ time-series cross-section data for countries that have hosted either the Summer Olympics, the Winter Olympics, the FIFA World Cup or the UEFA European Championship in that period. While our overall results, on balance, offer support to the ‘pessimistic’ side of the debate about the economic effects of hosting mega events, our findings also indicate that some FDI benefits might still accrue to the host. Results are not unambiguous, however. More detailed analysis suggests that staging the Olympics has virtually no effect on FDI inflows, whereas hosting a major, nationwide football tournament might have a small positive impact on foreign investment, particularly in the years leading up to the event. These latter results seem to be driven by smaller nations.

Democrats, Republicans—or Both? An Empirical Analysis of the Effects of the Composition of State Governments on FDI, 1977–2004

Does the partisan composition of state governments in the United States influence the location decisions of foreign multinational companies? This article argues that it does. We contend that partisan differences over state economic development policies still exist. Whereas Republicans tend to prefer an investment-driven (supply-side) growth model, Democrats favor a consumption-driven (demand-side) path to growth. Both sets of policies are of value to foreign direct investment; thus, multinationals do not favor one party over the other. A useful blend of policy measures is sought by foreign firms, making split state government preferable over unified government. Our arguments are comprehensively tested in a time-series cross-section analysis covering the period 1977–2004, with results supporting our claims.

Tripwires and free-riders: Do forward-deployed U.S. troops reduce the willingness of host-country citizens to fight for their country?

ABSTRACT This article investigates the relationship between U.S. overseas troops and the willingness of the citizens of host states to fight for their country. The study joins the long-running debate about burden-sharing and free-riding among U.S. allies. Unlike most previous empirical studies, we focus on non-material or intangible measures of the underlying concepts. Our dependent variable estimates the proportion of citizens expressing a willingness to fight for their country. Scores at the aggregate-national as well as the individual level are shaped by the presence of U.S. military forces, which act as a “tripwire” signaling credible security commitments. This increases opportunities of (non-material) free-riding. We present both bivariate and multivariate analyses covering the period 1981–2014 to test this supposition. Findings indicate that once U.S. troop levels reach a certain threshold (between 100 and 500 troops), citizens’ willingness to fight drops significantly. This likely reflects non-material free-riding.

Moving to the Gulf: an empirical analysis of the patterns and drivers of migration to the GCC countries, 1960–2013

Abstract The migration system in the Persian (Arabian) Gulf is among the largest such systems in the world. This article identifies the major interacting elements of this system, which primarily includes countries in South Asia and the Middle East, and discusses its generating forces and developments over the past five and a half decades. Departing from panel data from the World Bank and the UN’s population database, which hitherto have been largely under-analysed, we investigate the dynamics of migrations in the period 1960–2013. The panel data are combined with cross-sectional outlooks of contemporary trends and are related to political and economic developments in the region. It is suggested that the patterns of migrations in the Gulf may be explained with reference to the economic, political and demographic idiosyncrasies of the system, and to the migration policies of the GCC countries. In short, the key drivers of GCC migration patterns include: (1) socio-economic realities, in particular income differentials between migrant senders and migrant receivers as well as impressive growth rates in the Gulf region; (2) historical, cultural and institutional proximity among the constituent states in the system; and (3) the particularities of the Gulf states’ liberal labour-migrant regimes, which contrast starkly with their restrictive refugee and naturalisation policies.

The Game: A Rational Actor Approach to the US-led Invasion of Iraq, 2003

Abstract This article employs game theory to explain the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, seeking in particular to improve the understanding of why the Iraqi dictator chose a path of action that ultimately led to his downfall. The main argument is that Saddam Hussein lacked information about his opponents payoffs and was lured by the possibility of becoming the undisputed leading figure of the Arabic world. The analysis shows that even if the threat of an allied attack in the end proved credible, Iraq could – quite rationally – have chosen to stand firm.

Nexus of armed conflicts and migrations to the Gulf: migrations to the GCC from war-torn source countries in Asia, Africa and the Arab neighbourhood

ABSTRACT Majority of temporary labour migrants in the Gulf originate in countries that are not involved in devastating armed conflicts. Migrations from conflict-ridden countries to the Gulf are not negligible, however, and they have been growing in the last decades. The overview of migrations from the major refugee-producing countries suggests that we may distinguish between different categories of mixed migrations; inter alia, migrants who migrated to the Gulf prior to, during and after the armed conflicts in their home countries. We argue that these migrations happened in parallel with the tremendous economic growth that the Gulf countries have experienced in the last decades. Of note, however, is that they also coincide with escalations of armed conflicts in several sending countries, which may indicate that some of these migrations are also the result of war- or security-related push forces. We also contend that the dynamics of migrations from countries in conflict may in addition be related to the foreign policies of the Gulf countries, which are often closely related to their treatment of different migrant groups.

Is European NATO really free-riding? Patterns of material and non-material burden-sharing after the Cold War

ABSTRACT Does European NATO free-ride on America? This article uses a mixed-methods approach to explore developments after the Cold War. I investigate both “material” measures, such as military expenditure and troop numbers, and a “non-material” indicator that draws on survey data of the public’s willingness to fight for their country. Results and conclusions are not univocal. On the one hand, European NATO members have generally reduced their military spending (relative to GDP), abolished conscription and downsized their military forces. Their citizens’ self-reported willingness to fight has also been quite low after the Cold War, in particular in states that host US military bases. On the other hand, some of these developments can surely be explained by a decrease in threat perceptions in Europe. Trends changed markedly after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, which moved many allies – in particular new NATO member states – to increase their defence efforts.