Joachim De Weerdt

Migration and Economic Mobility in Tanzania: Evidence from a Tracking Survey

This study explores to what extent migration has contributed to improved living standards of individuals in Tanzania. Using a thirteen-year panel survey, we find that migration between 1991 and 2004 added 36 percentage points to consumption growth. Although moving out of agriculture resulted in much higher growth than staying in agriculture, growth was always greater in any sector if the individual physically moved. As to why more people do not move given the high returns to geographical mobility, analysis finds evidence consistent with models in which exit barriers set by home communities prevent the migration of some categories of people.

Adult mortality and consumption growth in the age of HIV / AIDS.

This article uses a 13‐year panel of individuals in Tanzania to assess how adult mortality shocks affect both the short‐ and long‐run consumption growth of surviving household members. Using unique data that tracks individuals from 1991 to 2004, we examine consumption growth, controlling for a set of initial community, household, and individual characteristics; the effect is identified using the sample of households in 2004 that grew out of baseline households. We find robust evidence that an affected household will see consumption drop 7% within the first 5 years after the adult death. With high growth in the sample over this time period, this creates a 19 percentage point growth gap with the average household. There is some evidence of persistent effects of these shocks for up to 13 years, but these effects are imprecisely estimated and not significantly different from zero. The impact of female adult death is found to be particularly severe.

Orphanhood and Human Capital Destruction: Is There Persistence Into Adulthood?

This article presents unique evidence that orphanhood matters in the long run for health and education outcomes in a region of northwestern Tanzania. We study a sample of 718 non-orphaned children surveyed in 1991–1994 who were traced and reinterviewed as adults in 2004. A large proportion, 19%, lost one or more parents before age 15 in this period, allowing us to assess permanent health and education impacts of orphanhood. In the analysis, we control for a wide range of child and adult characteristics before orphanhood, as well as community fixed effects. We find that maternal orphanhood has a permanent adverse impact of 2 cm of final height attainment and one year of educational attainment. Expressing welfare in terms of consumption expenditure, the result is a gap of 8.5% compared with similar children whose mothers survived until at least their 15th birthday.

Social Identity and the Formation of Health Insurance Networks

Abstract  In a panel survey of an informal insurance network in Tanzania we find none of the tell-tale signs that insurance transfers follow reciprocal risk sharing arrangements among self-interested individuals: insurance remittances do not occur through informal loans; transfers are not regressive; and they do not fall when shocks are repeated over time. The evidence of unreciprocated transfers occurring between kin is suggestive of risk sharing based on altruism or social norms.

Moving out of Poverty in Tanzania: Evidence from Kagera

This paper uses linked qualitative and quantitative data to explore the growth trajectories of matched households in the Kagera region of Tanzania, finding that agriculture and trade provided the two main routes out of poverty. The interplay between initial conditions, shocks, networks and experiences of life beyond their village determine whether a person moves out of poverty in the following decade.Abstract This paper uses linked qualitative and quantitative data to explore the growth trajectories of matched households in the Kagera region of Tanzania, finding that agriculture and trade provided the two main routes out of poverty. The interplay between initial conditions, shocks, networks and experiences of life beyond their village determine whether a person moves out of poverty in the following decade.

The intergenerational impact of the African orphans crisis: a cohort study from an HIV/AIDS affected area

BACKGROUND In sub-Saharan Africa, the prevalence of orphanhood among children has been greatly exacerbated by the HIV/AIDS pandemic. If orphanhood harms a childs development and these effects perpetuate into adult life, then the African orphan crisis could seriously jeopardize the continents future generations. Whether or not there exists an adverse, causal and intergenerational effect of HIV/AIDS on development is of crucial importance for setting medical priorities. This study is the first to empirically investigate the impact of orphanhood on health and schooling using long-term longitudinal data following children into adulthood. METHODS We examined a cohort of 718 children interviewed in the early 1990s and again in 2004. Detailed survey questionnaires and anthropometric measurements were administered at baseline and during a follow-up survey. Final attained height and education (at adulthood) between children who lost a parent before the age of 15 and those who did not were compared. RESULTS On average, children who lose their mother before the age of 15 suffer a deficit of around 2 cm in final attained height (mean 1.96; 95% CI 0.06-3.77) and 1 year of final attained schooling (mean 1.01; 95% CI 0.39-1.81). This effect is permanent and the hypothesis that it is causal cannot be rejected by our study. Although fathers death is a predictor of lower height and schooling as well, we reject the hypothesis of a causal link. CONCLUSIONS The African orphan crisis, exacerbated by the HIV/AIDS epidemic will have important negative intergenerational effects.

Methodological issues in the study of the socioeconomic consequences of HIV/AIDS

Rigorous empirical research on the socioeconomic effects of AIDS is important for developing appropriate strategies to mitigate impacts and ultimately improve living standards. This paper provides a broad overview of the challenges in studying the impact of the epidemic on individuals, households and economies, drawing examples from existing studies. We start with a discussion of macro-economic studies and argue that they reach vastly different conclusions about the impact of AIDS, depending on what parameter assumptions they make. Whereas microstudies could provide insights into some of these parameters and effects, there are many technical hurdles to overcome. We discuss the use of comparator groups, spillover effects, longitudinal datasets and the time horizons of studies. Under scrutiny of these technical requirements, the existing empirical evidence of the impoverishing effects of AIDS deaths on African households seems unexpectedly limited. After many years of study, large gaps remain in the empirical literature with regard to our understanding of the magnitude and heterogeneity of these impacts. We conclude that the literature thus far has not convincingly shown that AIDS is the main contributor to low levels and high inequities of socioeconomic outcomes in Africa. Demand for research on the causal impact of HIV/AIDS on poverty is only increasing with the scaling up of antiretroviral treatment.

What Does Variation in Survey Design Reveal About the Nature of Measurement Errors in Household Consumption

This paper uses data from eight different consumption questionnaires randomly assigned to 4,000 households in Tanzania to obtain evidence on the nature of measurement errors in estimates of household consumption. While there are no validation data, the design of one questionnaire and the resources put into its implementation make it likely to be substantially more accurate than the others. Comparing regressions using data from this benchmark design with results from the other questionnaires shows that errors have a negative correlation with the true value of consumption, creating a non-classical measurement error problem for which conventional statistical corrections may be ineffective.

Risk sharing and internal migration

Over the past two decades, more than half the population in rural Tanzania migrated within the country, profoundly changing the nature of traditional institutions such as informal risk sharing. Mass internal migration has created geographically disperse networks, on which the authors collected detailed panel data. By quantifying how shocks and consumption co-vary across linked households, they show how migrants unilaterally insure their extended family members at home. This finding contradicts risk-sharing models based on reciprocity, but is consistent with assistance driven by social norms. Migrants sacrifice 3 to 7 percent of their very substantial consumption growth to provide this insurance, which seems too trivial to have any stifling effect on their growth through migration.

The Challenge of Measuring Hunger

There is widespread interest in the number of hungry people in the world and trends in hunger. Current global counts rely on combining each countrys total food balance with information on distribution patterns from household consumption expenditure surveys. Recent research has advocated for calculating hunger numbers directly from these same surveys. For either approach, embedded in this effort are a number of important details about how household surveys are designed and how these data are then used. Using a survey experiment in Tanzania, this study finds great fragility in hunger counts stemming from alternative survey designs. As a consequence, comparable and valid hunger numbers will be lacking until more effort is made to either harmonize survey designs or better understand the consequences of survey design variation.