Joachim Gurtz

Advanced flood forecasting in Alpine watersheds by coupling meteorological observations and forecasts with a distributed hydrological model

Abstract Flood forecasting may be improved by coupling atmospheric and hydrological models. To investigate the current potential of such an approach in complex mountain watersheds, the authors carried out a number of combined high-resolution one-way driven model experiments to generate runoff hydrographs for seven extreme flood events which occurred in the Lago Maggiore basin between 1993 and 2000. The Alpine Ticino–Verzasca–Maggia basin (2627xa0km2) is located directly to the south of the main Alpine ridge embracing a great part of the drainage area of Lago Maggiore. For this basin, the grid-based hydrological catchment model WaSiM-ETH was employed to determine the continuous runoff hydrographs. In the model experiments, two different sets of meteorological input data were used: (1) surface observation data from station measurements and from weather radar, and (2) forecast data from five different high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with grid cell sizes between 2 and 14xa0km. This paper presents and compares selected results of these flood runoff simulations with particular attention to the experimental design of the model coupling. The configuration and initialization of the hydrological model runs are outlined as well as the down-scale techniques which proved to provide an adequate spatial interpolation of the meteorological variables onto the 500xa0m×500xa0m grid of the hydrological model. In order to evaluate the various hydrological model results as generated from the different outputs from the five NWP models, some coupled experiments with ‘non-standard’ NWP model outputs have been carried out. In particular, the results of these sensitivity studies point to inherent limits of high-resolution flood runoff predictions in complex mountain terrain.

Spatially distributed hydrotope-based modelling of evapotranspiration and runoff in mountainous basins

River basins in mountainous regions are characterized by strong variations in topography, vegetation, soils, climatic conditions and snow cover conditions, and all are strongly related to altitude. The high spatial variation needs to be considered when modelling hydrological processes in such catchments. A complex hydrological model, with a great potential to account for spatial variability, was developed and applied for the hourly simulation of evapotranspiration, soil moisture, water balance and the runoff components for the period 1993 and 1994 in 12 subcatchments of the alpine/pre-alpine basin of the River Thur (area 1703 km2). The basin is located in the north-east of the Swiss part of the Rhine Basin and has an elevation range from 350 to 2500 m a.s.l. A considerable part of the Thur Basin is high mountain area, some of it above the tree-line and a great part of the basin is snow covered during the winter season. n n n nIn the distributed hydrological model, the 12 sub-basins of the Thur catchment were spatially subdivided into sub-areas (hydrologically similar response units—HRUs or hydrotopes) using a GIS. Within the HRUs a hydrologically similar behaviour was assumed. Spatial interpolations of the meteorological input variables wereemployed for each altitudinal zone. The structure of the model components for snow accumulation and melt, interception, soil water storage and uptake by evapotranspiration, runoff generation and flow routing are briefly outlined. The results of the simulated potential evapotranspiration reflect the dominant role of altitudinal change in radiation and albedo of exposure, followed by the influence of slope. The actual evapotranspiration shows, in comparison with the potential evapotranspiration, a greater variability in the lower and medium altitudinal zones and a smaller variability in the upper elevation zones, which was associated with limitations of available moisture in soil and surface depression storages as well as with the evaporative demand of the local vegetation. The higher altitudinal dependency and variability of runoff results from the strong increase in precipitation and the decrease in evaporation with increased altitude. An increasing influence of snow cover on runoff as well as evapotranspiration with altitude is obvious. The computed actual evapotranspiration and runoff were evaluated against the observed values of a weighting lysimeter and against runoff hydrographs. Copyright

Probabilistic Flood Forecasting with a Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System: Selected Case Studies

A high-resolution atmospheric ensemble forecasting system is coupled to a hydrologic model to investigate probabilistic runoff forecasts for the alpine tributaries of the Rhine River basin (34 550 km 2 ). Five-day ensemble forecasts consisting of 51 members, generated with the global ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), are downscaled with the limited-area model Lokal Modell (LM). The resulting limited-area ensemble prediction system (LEPS) uses a horizontal grid spacing of 10 km and provides one-hourly output for driving the distributed hydrologic model Precipitation–Runoff–Evapotranspiration–Hydrotope (PREVAH) hydrologic response unit (HRU) with a resolution of 500 500 m 2 and a time step of 1 h. The hydrologic model component is calibrated for the river catchments considered, which are characterized by highly complex topography, for the period 1997–98 using surface observations, and validated for 1999–2002. This study explores the feasibility of atmospheric ensemble predictions for runoff forecasting, in comparison with deterministic atmospheric forcing. Detailed analysis is presented for two case studies: the spring 1999 flood event affecting central Europe due to a combination of snowmelt and heavy precipitation, and the November 2002 flood in the Alpine Rhine catchment. For both cases, the deterministic simulations yield forecast failures, while the coupled atmospheric–hydrologic EPS provides appropriate probabilistic forecast guidance with early indications for extreme floods. It is further shown that probabilistic runoff forecasts using a subsample of EPS members, selected by a cluster analysis, properly represent the forecasts using all 51 EPS members, while forecasts from randomly chosen subsamples reveal a reduced spread compared to the representative members. Additional analyses show that the representation of horizontal advection of precipitation in the atmospheric model may be crucial for flood forecasts in alpine catchments.

Turbulence Structure and Exchange Processes in an Alpine Valley: The Riviera Project.

During a special observing period (SOP) of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP), boundary layer processes in highly complex topography were investigated in the Riviera Valley in southern Switzerland. The main focus was on the turbulence structure and turbulent exchange processes near the valley surfaces and free troposphere. Due to the anticipated spatial inhomogeneity, a number of different turbulence probes were deployed on a cross section through the valley. Together with a suite of more conventional instrumentation, to observe mean meteorological structure in the valley, this effort yielded a highly valuable dataset. The latter is presently being exploited to yield insight into the turbulence structure in very complex terrain, and its relation to flow regimes and associated mean flow characteristics. Specific questions, such as a detailed investigation of turbulent exchange processes over complex topography and the validity of surface exchange parameterizations in numerical models for such surfaces, t...

Climate dynamics and extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe

Past changes and possible future variations in the nature of extreme precipitation and flood events in Central Europe and the Alpine region are examined from a physical standpoint. An overview is given of the following key contributory physical processes: (1) the variability of the large-scale atmospheric flow and the associated changes of the North-Atlantic storm track; (2) the feedback process between climate warming and the water cycle, and in particular the potential for more frequent heavy precipitation events; and (3) the catchment-scale hydrological processes associated with variations in major river flooding events and that are related to land-use changes, river training measures, and shifts in the proportion of rain to snowfall. In this context an account is provided of the possible future forecasting and warning methodologies based upon high-resolution weather prediction and runoff models. Also consideration is given to the detectability of past (future) changes in observed (modeled) extreme events. It is shown that their rarity and natural fluctuation largely impedes a detection of systematic variations. These effects restrict trend analysis of such events to return periods of below a few months. An illustration using daily precipitation from the Swiss Alps does yield evidence for pronounced trends of intense precipitation events (return period 30 days), while trends of stronger event classes are not detectable (but nevertheless can not be excluded). The small detection probability for extreme events limits possible mitigation of future damage costs through an abatement of climate change alone, and points to the desirability of developing improved early forecasting/warning systems as an additional no-regret strategy.

Swiss prealpine Rietholzbach research catchment and lysimeter: 32 year time series and 2003 drought event

[1]xa0The prealpine Rietholzbach research catchment provides long-term continuous hydroclimatological measurements in northeastern Switzerland, including lysimeter evapotranspiration measurements since 1976, and soil moisture measurements since 1994. We analyze here the monthly data record over 32 years (1976–2007), with a focus on the extreme 2003 European drought. In particular, we assess whether the well-established hypothesis that the 2003 event was due to spring precipitation deficits is valid at the site. The Rietholzbach measurements are found to be internally consistent and representative for a larger region in Switzerland. Despite the scale discrepancy (3.14 m2 versus 3.31 km2), the lysimeter seepage and catchment-wide streamflow show similar monthly dynamics. High correlations are further found with other streamflow measurements within the Thur river basin (1750 km2) and—for interannual anomalies—also in most of northern Switzerland. Analyses for 2003 confirm the occurrence of extreme heat and drought conditions at Rietholzbach. However, unlike findings from regional-scale modeling studies, they reveal a late onset of the soil moisture deficit (from June onward), despite large precipitation deficits from mid-February to mid-April. These early spring deficits were mostly compensated for by decreased runoff during this period and excess precipitation in the preceding weeks to months (including in the 2002 fall). Our results show that evapotranspiration excess in June 2003 was the main driver initiating the 2003 summer drought conditions in Rietholzbach, contributing 60% of the June 2003 water storage deficit. Finally, long-lasting drought effects on the lysimeter water storage due to rewetting inhibition were recorded until spring 2004.

A model approach for in- and outflow calculation of upper lake constance: —An investigation of a 60 year time span and observations about the flood of 1999

Abstract The revised empirical model for in- and outflow calculation of Upper Lake Constance has provided satisfying results supported by measured values. The given model was implemented to simulate total water inputs of the lake during the period from 1941 to 2000 with emphasis on the flood conditions of 1999. Analysis of annual water input development reveals a tendency toward slight increases until the 1960s. Thereafter, a reduction in inputs can be noted. This trend probably continues to hold true to present. Weather conditions of given individual years have caused distinct fluctuations to the water budget. Unusual meteorological conditions led to extreme flooding in early May of 1999. Daily water inputs of up to 200 mio m 3 generated the highest water levels ever observed for this time of the year. Continual extraordinarily high water inputs occurring from February until July and then again from September until the end of 1999 resulted in the second largest annual total water input recorded since 1941.