Joan K. Morris

Use of blood pressure lowering drugs in the prevention of cardiovascular disease: meta-analysis of 147 randomised trials in the context of expectations from prospective epidemiological studies

Objectives To determine the quantitative efficacy of different classes of blood pressure lowering drugs in preventing coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, and who should receive treatment. Design Meta-analysis. Data source Medline (1966-2007). Study selection Randomised trials of blood pressure lowering drugs recording CHD events and strokes. 108 trials studied differences in blood pressure between study drug and placebo (or control group not receiving the study drug) (“blood pressure difference trials”), and 46 trials compared drugs (“drug comparison trials”). Seven trials with three randomised groups fell into both categories. The results were interpreted in the context of those expected from the largest published meta-analysis of cohort studies, totalling 958 000 people. Participants 464 000 people defined into three mutually exclusive categories: participants with no history of vascular disease, a history of CHD, or a history of stroke. Results In the blood pressure difference trials β blockers had a special effect over and above that due to blood pressure reduction in preventing recurrent CHD events in people with a history of CHD: risk reduction 29% (95% confidence interval 22% to 34%) compared with 15% (11% to 19%) in trials of other drugs. The extra effect was limited to a few years after myocardial infarction, with a risk reduction of 31% compared with 13% in people with CHD with no recent infarct (P=0.04). In the other blood pressure difference trials (excluding CHD events in trials of β blockers in people with CHD), there was a 22% reduction in CHD events (17% to 27%) and a 41% (33% to 48%) reduction in stroke for a blood pressure reduction of 10 mm Hg systolic or 5 mm Hg diastolic, similar to the reductions of 25% (CHD) and 36% (stroke) expected for the same difference in blood pressure from the cohort study meta-analysis, indicating that the benefit is explained by blood pressure reduction itself. The five main classes of blood pressure lowering drugs (thiazides, β blockers, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, and calcium channel blockers) were similarly effective (within a few percentage points) in preventing CHD events and strokes, with the exception that calcium channel blockers had a greater preventive effect on stroke (relative risk 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 0.98). The percentage reductions in CHD events and stroke were similar in people with and without cardiovascular disease and regardless of blood pressure before treatment (down to 110 mm Hg systolic and 70 mm Hg diastolic). Combining our results with those from two other studies (the meta-analyses of blood pressure cohort studies and of trials determining the blood pressure lowering effects of drugs according to dose) showed that in people aged 60-69 with a diastolic blood pressure before treatment of 90 mm Hg, three drugs at half standard dose in combination reduced the risk of CHD by an estimated 46% and of stroke by 62%; one drug at standard dose had about half this effect. The present meta-analysis also showed that drugs other than calcium channel blockers (with the exception of non-cardioselective β blockers) reduced the incidence of heart failure by 24% (19% to 28%) and calcium channel blockers by 19% (6% to 31%). Conclusions With the exception of the extra protective effect of β blockers given shortly after a myocardial infarction and the minor additional effect of calcium channel blockers in preventing stroke, all the classes of blood pressure lowering drugs have a similar effect in reducing CHD events and stroke for a given reduction in blood pressure so excluding material pleiotropic effects. The proportional reduction in cardiovascular disease events was the same or similar regardless of pretreatment blood pressure and the presence or absence of existing cardiovascular disease. Guidelines on the use of blood pressure lowering drugs can be simplified so that drugs are offered to people with all levels of blood pressure. Our results indicate the importance of lowering blood pressure in everyone over a certain age, rather than measuring it in everyone and treating it in some.

Homocysteine and cardiovascular disease: evidence on causality from a meta-analysis

Abstract Objective: To assess whether the association of serum homocysteine concentration with ischaemic heart disease, deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, and stroke is causal and, if so, to quantify the effect of homocysteine reduction in preventing them. Design: Meta-analyses of the above three diseases using (a) 72 studies in which the prevalence of a mutation in the MTHFR gene (which increases homocysteine) was determined in cases (n=16 849) and controls, and (b) 20 prospective studies (3820 participants) of serum homocysteine and disease risk. Main outcome measures: Odds ratios of the three diseases for a 5 μmol/l increase in serum homocysteine concentration. Results: There were significant associations between homocysteine and the three diseases. The odds ratios for a 5 μmol/l increase in serum homocysteine were, for ischaemic heart disease, 1.42 (95% confidence interval 1.11 to 1.84) in the genetic studies and 1.32 (1.19 to 1.45) in the prospective studies; for deep vein thrombosis with or without pulmonary embolism, 1.60 (1.15 to 2.22) in the genetic studies (there were no prospective studies); and, for stroke, 1.65 (0.66 to 4.13) in the genetic studies and 1.59 (1.29 to 1.96) in the prospective studies. Conclusions: The genetic studies and the prospective studies do not share the same potential sources of error, but both yield similar highly significant results—strong evidence that the association between homocysteine and cardiovascular disease is causal. On this basis, lowering homocysteine concentrations by 3 μmol/l from current levels (achievable by increasing folic acid intake) would reduce the risk of ischaemic heart disease by 16% (11% to 20%), deep vein thrombosis by 25% (8% to 38%), and stroke by 24% (15% to 33%). What is already known on this topic There is an association between serum homocysteine concentration and cardiovascular disease, but it is not known whether the association is causal A common single gene mutation that reduces the activity of an enzyme involved in folate metabolism (MTHFR) is associated with a moderate (20%) increase in serum homocysteine What this study adds A meta-analysis of MTHFR studies shows a significantly higher risk of both ischaemic heart disease and deep vein thrombosis (with or without pulmonary embolism) in people with the MTHFR mutation A meta-analysis of prospective studies shows a significant association between homocysteine concentration and ischaemic heart disease similar in size to that expected from the results of the MTHFR studies and a significant association with stroke The MTHFR studies and the prospective studies do not share the same potential sources of error but both yield similar results—strong evidence that the association between homocysteine and cardiovascular disease is causal On this basis a decrease in serum homocysteine of 3 μmol/l (achievable by daily intake of about 0.8 mg folic acid) should reduce the risk of ischaemic heart disease by 16%, deep vein thrombosis by 25%, and stroke by 24%

Value of low dose combination treatment with blood pressure lowering drugs: analysis of 354 randomised trials

Abstract Objective To determine the average reduction in blood pressure, prevalence of adverse effects, and reduction in risk of stroke and ischaemic heart disease events produced by the five main categories of blood pressure lowering drugs according to dose, singly and in combination. Design Meta-analysis of 354 randomised double blind placebo controlled trials of thiazides, β blockers, angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, angiotensin II receptor antagonists, and calcium channel blockers in fixed dose. Subjects 40 000 treated patients and 16 000 patients given placebo. Main outcome measures Placebo adjusted reductions in systolic and diastolic blood pressure and prevalence of adverse effects, according to dose expressed as a multiple of the standard (recommended) doses of the drugs. Results All five categories of drug produced similar reductions in blood pressure. The average reduction was 9.1 mm Hg systolic and 5.5 mm Hg diastolic at standard dose and 7.1 mm Hg systolic and 4.4 mm Hg diastolic (20% lower) at half standard dose. The drugs reduced blood pressure from all pretreatment levels, more so from higher levels; for a 10 mm Hg higher blood pressure the reduction was 1.0 mm Hg systolic and 1.1 mm Hg diastolic greater. The blood pressure lowering effects of different categories of drugs were additive. Symptoms attributable to thiazides, β blockers, and calcium channel blockers were strongly dose related; symptoms caused by ACE inhibitors (mainly cough) were not dose related. Angiotensin II receptor antagonists caused no excess of symptoms. The prevalence of symptoms with two drugs in combination was less than additive. Adverse metabolic effects (such as changes in cholesterol or potassium) were negligible at half standard dose. Conclusions Combination low dose drug treatment increases efficacy and reduces adverse effects. From the average blood pressure in people who have strokes (150/90 mm Hg) three drugs at half standard dose are estimated to lower blood pressure by 20 mm Hg systolic and 11 mm Hg diastolic and thereby reduce the risk of stroke by 63% and ischaemic heart disease events by 46% at age 60-69.

Environmental tobacco smoke exposure and ischaemic heart disease: an evaluation of the evidence

Abstract Objectives: To estimate the risk of ischaemic heart disease caused by exposure to environmental tobacco smoke and to explain why the associated excess risk is almost half that of smoking 20 cigarettes per day when the exposure is only about 1% that of smoking. Design: Meta-analysis of all 19 acceptable published studies of risk of ischaemic heart disease in lifelong non-smokers who live with a smoker and in those who live with a non-smoker, five large prospective studies of smoking and ischaemic heart disease, and studies of platelet aggregation and studies of diet according to exposure to tobacco smoke. Results: The relative risk of ischaemic heart disease associated with exposure to environmental tobacco smoke was 1.30 (95% confidence interval 1.22 to 1.38) at age 65. At the same age the estimated relative risk associated with smoking one cigarette per day was similar (1.39 (1.18 to 1.64)), while for 20 per day it was 1.78 (1.31 to 2.44). Two separate analyses indicated that non-smokers who live with smokers eat a diet that places them at a 6% higher risk of ischaemic heart disease, so the direct effect of environmental tobacco smoke is to increase risk by 23% (14% to 33%), since 1.30/1.06=1.23. Platelet aggregation provides a plausible and quantitatively consistent mechanism for the low dose effect. The increase in platelet aggregation produced experimentally by exposure to environmental tobacco smoke would be expected to have acute effects increasing the risk of ischaemic heart disease by 34%. Conclusion: Breathing other peoples smoke is an important and avoidable cause of ischaemic heart disease, increasing a persons risk by a quarter. Key messages Analysis of 19 epidemiological studies shows that people who have never smoked have an estimated 30% greater risk of ischaemic heart disease if they live with a smoker (P<0.001) This is surprisingly large—almost half the risk of smoking 20 cigarettes per day even though the exposure is only 1% of that of a smoker The excess risk from smoking one cigarette per day is 39%—similar to the risk in a non-smoker living with a smoker The effect is mainly explained by a non-linear dose-response relation between expsoure to tobacco smoke and risk of heart disease Detailed analysis shows no significant bias; dietary confounding can account for an excess risk of only 6%, so revising the excess risk from 30% to 23%

Randomized Trial of Preventive Angioplasty in Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND In acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the use of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) to treat the artery responsible for the infarct (infarct, or culprit, artery) improves prognosis. The value of PCI in noninfarct coronary arteries with major stenoses (preventive PCI) is unknown. METHODS From 2008 through 2013, at five centers in the United Kingdom, we enrolled 465 patients with acute STEMI (including 3 patients with left bundle-branch block) who were undergoing infarct-artery PCI and randomly assigned them to either preventive PCI (234 patients) or no preventive PCI (231 patients). Subsequent PCI for angina was recommended only for refractory angina with objective evidence of ischemia. The primary outcome was a composite of death from cardiac causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or refractory angina. An intention-to-treat analysis was used. RESULTS By January 2013, the results were considered conclusive by the data and safety monitoring committee, which recommended that the trial be stopped early. During a mean follow-up of 23 months, the primary outcome occurred in 21 patients assigned to preventive PCI and in 53 patients assigned to no preventive PCI (infarct-artery-only PCI), which translated into rates of 9 events per 100 patients and 23 per 100, respectively (hazard ratio in the preventive-PCI group, 0.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.21 to 0.58; P<0.001). Hazard ratios for the three components of the primary outcome were 0.34 (95% CI, 0.11 to 1.08) for death from cardiac causes, 0.32 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.75) for nonfatal myocardial infarction, and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.18 to 0.69) for refractory angina. CONCLUSIONS In patients with STEMI and multivessel coronary artery disease undergoing infarct-artery PCI, preventive PCI in noninfarct coronary arteries with major stenoses significantly reduced the risk of adverse cardiovascular events, as compared with PCI limited to the infarct artery. (Funded by Barts and the London Charity; PRAMI Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN73028481.).

Combination therapy versus monotherapy in reducing blood pressure: meta-analysis on 11,000 participants from 42 trials.

OBJECTIVE To quantify the incremental effect of combining blood pressure-lowering drugs from any 2 classes of thiazides, beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, and calcium channel blockers over 1 drug alone and to compare the effects of combining drugs with doubling dose. METHODS Meta-analysis of factorial trials in which participants were randomly allocated to 1 drug alone, another drug alone, both drugs together, or a placebo. RESULTS We identified 42 trials (10,968 participants). With a thiazide used alone, the mean placebo-subtracted reduction in systolic blood pressure was 7.3 mm Hg and 14.6 mm Hg combined with a drug from another class. The corresponding reductions were 9.3 mm Hg and 18.9 mm Hg with a beta-blocker, 6.8 mm Hg and 13.9 mm Hg with an angiotensin-converting enzyme, and 8.4 mm Hg and 14.3 mm Hg with a calcium channel blocker. The expected blood pressure reduction from 2 drugs together, assuming an additive effect, closely predicted the observed blood pressure reductions. The ratios of the observed to expected incremental blood pressure reductions from combining each class of drug with any other over that from 1 drug were, respectively, for thiazides, beta-blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, and calcium channel blockers: 1.04 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.88-1.20), 1.00 (95% CI, 0.76-1.24), 1.16 (95% CI, 0.93-1.39), and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.69-1.09); the overall average was 1.01 (95% CI, 0.90-1.12). Comparison of our results with those of a published meta-analysis of different doses of the same drug showed that doubling the dose of 1 drug had approximately one fifth of the equivalent incremental effect (0.22 [95% CI, 0.19-0.25]). CONCLUSION Blood pressure reduction from combining drugs from these 4 classes can be predicted on the basis of additive effects. The extra blood pressure reduction from combining drugs from 2 different classes is approximately 5 times greater than doubling the dose of 1 drug.

Reducing the risk of multiple births by transfer of two embryos after in vitro fertilization

BACKGROUND In vitro fertilization is associated with a high risk of multiple births, which is a direct consequence of the number of embryos transferred. However, other factors that contribute to the risk are not well defined. METHODS Using the data base established by the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority in the United Kingdom, we studied the factors associated with an increased risk of multiple births in 44,236 cycles in 25,240 women. The factors included the womans age, the cause and duration of infertility, previous attempts at in vitro fertilization, previous live births, number of eggs fertilized, and number of embryos transferred. RESULTS Older age, tubal infertility, longer duration of infertility, and a higher number of previous attempts at in vitro fertilization were all associated with a significantly decreased chance of a birth and of multiple births. Previous live birth was associated with an increased chance of a birth but not of multiple births. The higher the number of eggs fertilized, the higher the likelihood of a live birth. When more than four eggs were fertilized, there was no increase in the birth rate for women receiving three transferred embryos as compared with those receiving two, but there was a considerable increase in the rate of multiple births when three were transferred (odds ratio, 1.6; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.5 to 1.8). CONCLUSIONS Among women undergoing in vitro fertilization, the chances of a live birth are related to the number of eggs fertilized, presumably because of the greater selection of embryos for transfer. When more than four eggs are fertilized and available for transfer, the womans chance of a birth is not diminished by transferring only two embryos. Transferring more embryos increases the risk of multiple births.

Quantifying the effect of folic acid

BACKGROUND Folic acid is known to prevent neural-tube defects (NTDs) but the size of the effect for a given dose is unclear. We aimed to quantify such an effect. METHODS We used published data from 13 studies of folic acid supplementation on serum folate concentrations and results from a large cohort study of the risk of NTDs according to serum folate, to measure the preventive effect of specified increases in intake of folic acid. FINDINGS Serum folate concentrations increase by 0.94 ng/mL (95% CI 0.77-1.10) for every 0.1 mg/day increase in folic acid intake in women aged 20-35 years, and about double that in people aged 40-65. Every doubling of serum folate concentration roughly halves the risk of an NTD. These two effects can be combined to predict the reduction in risk according to intake of extra folic acid and background serum folate concentration. Such results predict that the preventive effect is greater in women with low serum folate than in those with higher concentrations. The results have also been used to predict direct observations from large randomised trials and the effect of food fortification. From a typical western background serum folate of 5 ng/mL, about 0.2 mg/day (the US level of folic acid fortification) would be expected to reduce NTDs by about 20%; a similar effect can be expected from the current British recommendation (0.24 mg/day). An increase of 0.4 mg/day would reduce risk by about 36%, of 1 mg/day by 57%, and taking a 5-mg tablet daily would reduce risk by about 85%. INTERPRETATION Folic acid fortification levels should be increased. Additionally women planning a pregnancy should take 5 mg folic acid tablets daily, instead of the 0.4 mg dose presently recommended.

Valproic acid monotherapy in pregnancy and major congenital malformations

BACKGROUND The use of valproic acid in the first trimester of pregnancy is associated with an increased risk of spina bifida, but data on the risks of other congenital malformations are limited. METHODS We first combined data from eight published cohort studies (1565 pregnancies in which the women were exposed to valproic acid, among which 118 major malformations were observed) and identified 14 malformations that were significantly more common among the offspring of women who had received valproic acid during the first trimester. We then assessed the associations between use of valproic acid during the first trimester and these 14 malformations by performing a case-control study with the use of the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies (EUROCAT) antiepileptic-study database, which is derived from population-based congenital-anomaly registries. Registrations (i.e., pregnancy outcomes with malformations included in EUROCAT) with any of these 14 malformations were compared with two control groups, one consisting of infants with malformations not previously linked to valproic acid use (control group 1), and one consisting of infants with chromosomal abnormalities (control group 2). The data set included 98,075 live births, stillbirths, or terminations with malformations among 3.8 million births in 14 European countries from 1995 through 2005. RESULTS Exposure to valproic acid monotherapy was recorded for a total of 180 registrations, with 122 registrations in the case group, 45 in control group 1, and 13 in control group 2. As compared with no use of an antiepileptic drug during the first trimester (control group 1), use of valproic acid monotherapy was associated with significantly increased risks for 6 of the 14 malformations under consideration; the adjusted odds ratios were as follows: spina bifida, 12.7 (95% confidence interval [CI], 7.7 to 20.7); atrial septal defect, 2.5 (95% CI, 1.4 to 4.4); cleft palate, 5.2 (95% CI, 2.8 to 9.9); hypospadias, 4.8 (95% CI, 2.9 to 8.1); polydactyly, 2.2 (95% CI, 1.0 to 4.5); and craniosynostosis, 6.8 (95% CI, 1.8 to 18.8). Results for exposure to valproic acid were similar to results for exposure to other antiepileptic drugs. CONCLUSIONS The use of valproic acid monotherapy in the first trimester was associated with significantly increased risks of several congenital malformations, as compared with no use of antiepileptic drugs or with use of other antiepileptic drugs.

Loss of employment and mortality

Abstract Objective: To assess effect of unemployment and early retirement on mortality in a group of middle aged British men. Design: Prospective cohort study (British Regional Heart Study). Five years after initial screening, information on employment experience was obtained with a postal questionnaire. Setting: One general practice in each of 24 towns in Britain. Subjects: 6191 men aged 40-59 who had been continuously employed for at least five years before initial screening in 1978-80: 1779 experienced some unemployment or retired during the five years after screening, and 4412 remained continuously employed. Main outcome measure: Mortality during 5.5 years after postal questionnaire. Results: Men who experienced unemployment in the five years after initial screening were twice as likely to die during the following 5.5 years as men who remained continuously employed (relative risk 2.13 (95% confidence interval 1.71 to 2.65). After adjustment for socioeconomic variables (town and social class), health related behaviour (smoking, alcohol consumption, and body weight), and health indicators (recall of doctor diagnoses) that had been assessed at initial screening the relative risk was slightly reduced, to 1.95 (1.57 to 2.43). Even men who retired early for reasons other than illness and who appeared to be relatively advantaged and healthy had a significantly increased risk of mortality compared with men who remained continuously employed (relative risk 1.87 (1.35 to 2.60)). The increased risk of mortality from cancer was similar to that of mortality from cardiovascular disease (adjusted relative risk 2.07 and 2.13 respectively). Conclusions: In this group of stably employed middle aged men loss of employment was associated with an increased risk of mortality even after adjustment for background variables, suggesting a causal effect. The effect was non-specific, however, with the increased mortality involving both cancer and cardiovascular disease.