Joanna Hendy

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Charges and Credits on Agricultural Land: What Can a Model Tell Us?

Using the simulation model Land Use in Rural New Zealand version 1 -climate (LURNZv1-climate), we simulate the effects of an agricultural land-use emissions charge and a reward for native forest and scrub regeneration. Our results are preliminary and at this stage should be considered illustrative. We find that, on its own, an agricultural emissions charge based on solely on land use would be disruptive and may not be very effective in reducing emissions. In addition, we find that including an additional policy that rewards regenerating forest and scrub without a similar reward for plantation forestry might negatively impact on plantation forestry, increasing emissions growth in the short-run. We are currently developing a second version of LURNZ-climate, which will be more robust and thus lend more weight to our future results.

Land-Use Intensity Module: Land Use in Rural New Zealand Version 1

This document outlines the development of the dynamic functions and simple algorithms that make up the Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) land-use intensity module. The module includes stocking rate functions for dairy, sheep, and beef livestock; fertiliser intensity functions for dairy and sheep/beef; and algorithms for the evolution of the age classes of the plantation forestry estate, and of reverting scrubland. This module is designed so that: (1) output from models of rural production and rural land use can be compared using the land-use intensity functions as conversion factors; (2) output from the land use module of LURNZ can be converted into the implied levels of rural activities that can be directly related to certain environmental impacts. This module is part of the LURNZv1 simulation model and can be used in conjunction with the LURNZ land use and greenhouse gas modules.

The Land Use in Rural New Zealand Model Version 1 (Lurnzv1): Model Description

This paper documents the first version of the Land Use in Rural New Zealand Model (LURNZv1). It describes the overall modelling approach, the database underlying the model, and the construction of each module within the model. The model is econometrically estimated from national time series data and spatially extrapolated using economic and geophysical variables. It is primarily a simulation model but is also set up to produce predictions based on future price scenarios. The model output includes projections of four types of rural land use under different scenarios and 25 ha grid maps of where land use, and changes in land use, are likely to occur.