Joanna Piwowarczyk

Comparing reconstructed past variations and future projections of the Baltic sea ecosystem first results from multi model ensemble simulations

Multi-model ensemble simulations for the marine biogeochemistry and food web of the Baltic Sea were performed for the period 1850‐2098, and projected changes in the future climate were compared with the past climate environment. For the past period 1850‐2006, atmospheric, hydrological and nutrient forcings were reconstructed, based on historical measurements. For the future period 1961‐2098, scenario simulations were driven by

Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.

Climate change in the baltic sea region : A cross-country analysis of institutional stakeholder perceptions

Before climate change is considered in long-term coastal management, it is necessary to investigate how institutional stakeholders in coastal management conceptualize climate change, as their awareness will ultimately affect their actions. Using questionnaires in eight Baltic Sea riparian countries, this study examines environmental managers’ awareness of climate change. Our results indicate that problems related to global warming are deemed secondary to short-term social and economic issues. Respondents agree that problems caused by global warming will become increasingly important, but pay little attention to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Current environmental problems are expected to continue to be urgent in the future. We conclude that an apparent gap exists between decision making, public concerns, and scientific consensus, resulting in a situation in which the latest evidence rarely influences commonly held opinions.

Assessing Non-market Benefits of Seagrass Restoration in the Gulf of Gdańsk

Seagrass meadows (Zostera marina) are an important ecosystem in the coastal environment of the Baltic Sea. This study employs a discrete choice experiment to value a set of non-market benefits provided by seagrass meadows in the Gulf of Gdansk, Poland. The benefits valued in this study are a reduction of filamentous algae in the water and on the beach; access to seagrass meadows for boaters and divers; and improved water clarity. Results show significant willingness to pay for each attribute and differences of value estimates across different groups of survey respondents. It is discussed how to link choice attributes and estimated values with established ecosystem benefit categories in order to facilitate value transfer.

Low virus to prokaryote ratios in the cold: benthic viruses and prokaryotes in a subpolar marine ecosystem (Hornsund, Svalbard).

The density and spatial distribution of benthic viruses and prokaryotes in relation to biotic and abiotic factors were investigated in sediment cores collected in Hornsund, a permanently cold fjord on the West coast of Svalbard, Norway. The cores were obtained from the mouth of the fjord to the central basin, along a longitudinal transect. The results of our analyses showed lower densities of viruses (0.2 x 10(8) to 5.4 x 10(8) virus-like particles/g) and lower virus-to-prokaryote ratios (0.2-0.6, with the exception of the uppermost layer in the central basin, where the ratio was about 1.2) at the study site than generally found in the temperate areas, despite the relatively high organic matter content in subpolar sediments. Variations in benthic viral and prokaryote abundances along gradients of particle sedimentation rates, phytopigment concentrations, and macrobenthic species composition together suggested the influence of particle sedimentation and macrobenthic bioturbation on the abundance and spatial distribution ofprokaryotes and viruses in cold habitats.

Ecosystem goods, services and management

1. Humans are an imperative component of the Earth’s ecosystems as we transform them to meet our economic and cultural needs. 2. Seas and oceans contribute to the local, regional and global development of human society. The downside of this development is environmental deterioration resulting from increasing competition for sea space and coastal areas between different and conflicting interests. 3. Natural environmental stressors are exacerbated by anthropogenic pressures in the drainage areas of all aquatic systems. The interplay of such pressures is particularly pronounced in semi-enclosed seas such as the Baltic Sea, which are often multi-use and multi-stakeholder areas. 4. The ecosystem goods and services offered by the Baltic Sea can be classified as provisioning (resources obtained by exploitation for e.g. human food), regulating (direct natural regulation processes, e.g. gas and climate regulation), cultural (non-material benefits, e.g. recreation) and supporting (processes necessary to sustain the other goods and services, e.g. primary production). 5. The management of the Baltic Sea ecosystem has its success stories, such as regulations for the exploitation of living resources and discharges of hazardous substances. It also has its failures, eutrophication management being perhaps the most evident one. 6. Trans-national networking and cross-border cooperation are crucial for improving the health of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. This is not always easy because the different countries around the Baltic Sea experience different social constraints. 7. The large-scale anthropogenic pressures on the Baltic Sea can only be dealt with by ecosystem-based management (EBM). EBM is an integrated approach to management that considers the entire ecosystem, including humans, and aims to maintain the sustainable supply of ecosystem goods and services by keeping the ecosystem in a healthy, productive and resilient condition. 8. Marine spatial planning (MSP) may be the vehicle for scientific knowledge to inform and influence decision-making.