Joanne M. Earnhardt

Strategic planning for captive populations: projecting changes in genetic diversity

Maintenance of genetic diversity is critical for the preservation of small populations. Most captive populations are small and managers focus their efforts on reducing extinction risks by minimising loss of genetic diversity. To project changes in genetic diversity, managers use a genetic drift model. We used data from 40 managed captive populations to test whether this drift model is a good predictor of change in genetic diversity by comparing projected 10-year trajectories of annual loss in expected heterozygosity with the changes estimated from pedigree analysis. We found that the drift model frequently overestimated the rate at which genetic diversity would be lost and could not predict increases, which we observed in 22 species. We suggest that the drift model does not adequately reflect the potential for management strategies, such as prioritised breeding recommendations and recruitment of potential founders, to slow the loss of genetic diversity. In many cases, the drift model may be overly pessimistic, leading managers to seek solutions such as importation, increased population size or the abandonment of a captive population, that may be unnecessary or premature. Managers should be cautious when interpreting results from genetic drift models, taking care to assess how management actions might lead to more optimistic prognoses.

The Puerto Rican parrot reintroduction program: Sustainable management of the aviary population

The cornerstone of the recovery plan for the critically endangered Puerto Rican parrot (Amazona vitatta) is an actively managed, long-term reintroduction program. One captive population distributed across two aviaries in Puerto Rico is the sole source for release but its ability to persist as a managed resource has not been evaluated since 1989. We conducted an assessment for sustainable management of the aviary population while harvesting for release. To assess demographic rates such as population growth, vital rates, and age/sex structure, we compiled a studbook database on all living, dead, and released individuals in the aviary population. Using an individual-based risk assessment model we applied population specific data based on the management period from 1993 to 2012 to simulate future aviary population dynamics and evaluate future potential production. We modeled four potential management strategies to harvest parrots for proposed releases; these scenarios vary the number of parrots and the life stage. Our simulations revealed that the aviary population can be simultaneously managed for sustainability and harvesting of parrots for release. However, without cautious management, overharvesting can jeopardize sustainability of the aviary population. Our analysis of the aviary breeding program provides a rare opportunity to review progress relative to conservation program objectives after four decades of active management. The successful growth of the aviary population and its ability to serve as a sustainable source for reintroductions supports the 1973 decision to build a breeding program from a small population of 13 parrots.

Extinction risk assessment for the species survival plan (SSP®) population of the Bali mynah (Leucopsar rothschildi)

The Bali mynah Species Survival Plan (SSP), an Association of Zoos and Aquariums program, strives to maintain the genetic and demographic health of its population, avoid unplanned changes in size, and minimize the risk of population extinction. The SSP population meets current demographic and genetic objectives with a population size of 209 birds at 61 institutions and 96% genetic diversity (GD) retained from the source population. However, participating institutions have expressed concerns regarding space allocation, target population size (TPS), breeding restrictions, inbreeding depression, and harvest in relation to future population availability and viability. Based on these factors, we assess five questions with a quantitative risk assessment, specifically a population viability analysis (PVA) using ZooRisk software. Using an individual-based stochastic model, we project potential population changes under different conditions (e.g. changes in TPS and genetic management) to identify the most effective management actions. Our projections indicate that under current management conditions, population decline and extinction are unlikely and that although GD will decline over 100 years the projected loss does not exceed levels acceptable to population managers (less than 90% GD retained). Model simulations indicate that the combination of two genetic management strategies (i.e. priority breeding based on mean kinship and inbreeding avoidance) benefits the retention of GD and reduces the accumulation of inbreeding. The current TPS (250) is greater than necessary to minimize the risk of extinction for the SSP population but any reduction in TPS must be accompanied by continued application of genetic management. If carefully planned, birds can be harvested for transfer to Bali for a reintroduction program without jeopardizing the SSP population.