Joanne Sahhar

Prevalence, correlates and clinical usefulness of antibodies to RNA polymerase III in systemic sclerosis: a cross-sectional analysis of data from an Australian cohort

IntroductionThe prevalence of antibodies to RNA polymerase III (anti-RNAP) differs among systemic sclerosis (SSc) cohorts worldwide. Previously reported associations of anti-RNAP include diffuse cutaneous disease, tendon friction rubs and renal crisis, with recent reports suggesting a close temporal association between malignancy and SSc disease onset among patients with anti-RNAP.MethodsPatients with SSc were tested for the presence of anti-RNAP at recruitment into the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study. We used univariate and multivariable methods to identify and quantify clinical and laboratory correlates of anti-RNAP in SSc. Diagnostic testing procedures were used to determine the usefulness of these antibodies in estimating the likelihood of clinically important outcomes.ResultsThere were 451 patients with mean ± standard deviation age and disease duration at recruitment of 58.1 ± 12.4 and 11.6 ± 10.0 years, respectively; 151 (33.5%) patients were recruited within 5 years of diagnosis of SSc. Overall, 69 (15.3%) patients had anti-RNAP. Univariate associations of anti-RNAP were diffuse disease (75.4% vs. 20.9%, P < 0.0001), joint contractures (73.9% vs. 30.1%, P < 0.0001), greater highest-recorded modified Rodnan skin score (20.6 ± 12.4 vs. 10.1 ± 7.9, P < 0.0001), synovitis (31.9% vs. 19.9%, P = 0.03), myositis (2.9% vs. 0.5%, P = 0.05), systemic hypertension (59.4% vs. 39.7%, P = 0.002), renal crisis (24.6% vs. 1.8%, P < 0.0001) and malignancy diagnosed within 5 years of onset of SSc skin disease (13.3% vs. 3.9%, P = 0.01). In multiple regression analysis, after adjustment for other covariates, anti-RNAP were independently associated with renal crisis (odds ratio (OR) 3.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2 to 11.5, P = 0.02; positive predictive value (PPV) 24.6%, negative predictive value (NPV) 98.2%), diffuse disease (OR 6.4, 95% CI 2.9 to 13.8, P < 0.0001; PPV 75.4%, NPV 20.9%), joint contractures (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.2 to 5.3, P = 0.02; PPV 73.9%, NPV 69.9%) and malignancy diagnosed within 5 years of onset of SSc skin disease (OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.3 to 13.4, P = 0.01; PPV 13.3%, NPV 96.1%).ConclusionsAnti-RNAP status is a clinically useful prognostic marker in SSc and enables clinicians to identify patients at high risk of developing renal crisis, synovitis, myositis and joint contractures. Patients with anti-RNAP also have an increased risk of malignancy within a 5-year timeframe before or after onset of SSc skin changes.

Extent of disease on high-resolution computed tomography lung is a predictor of decline and mortality in systemic sclerosis-related interstitial lung disease

OBJECTIVES In a multi-centre study, we sought to determine whether extent of disease on high-resolution CT (HRCT) lung, reported using a simple grading system, is predictive of decline and mortality in SSc-related interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD), independently of pulmonary function tests (PFTs) and other prognostic variables. METHODS SSc patients with a baseline HRCT performed at the time of ILD diagnosis were identified. All HRCTs and PFTs performed during follow-up were retrieved. Demographic and disease-related data were prospectively collected. HRCTs were graded according to the percentage of lung disease: >20%: extensive; <20%: limited; unclear: indeterminate. Indeterminate HRCTs were converted to limited or extensive using a forced vital capacity threshold of 70%. The composite outcome variable was deterioration (need for home oxygen or lung transplantation), or death. RESULTS Among 172 patients followed for mean (s.d.) of 3.5 (2.9) years, there were 30 outcome events. In Weibull multivariable hazards regression modelling, baseline HRCT grade was independently predictive of outcome, with an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 3.0, 95% CI 1.2, 7.5 and P = 0.02. In time-varying covariate models (based on 1309 serial PFTs and 353 serial HRCTs in 172 patients), serial diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide by alveolar volume ratio (ml/min/mmHg/l) (aHR = 0.4; 95% CI 0.3, 0.7; P = 0.001) and forced vital capacity (dl) (aHR = 0.9; 95% CI 0.8, 0.97; P = 0.008), were also strongly predictive of outcome. CONCLUSION Extensive disease (>20%) on HRCT at baseline, reported using a semi-quantitative grading system, is associated with a three-fold increased risk of deterioration or death in SSc-ILD, compared with limited disease. Serial PFTs are informative in follow-up of patients.

Predictors of mortality in connective tissue disease-associated pulmonary arterial hypertension: a cohort study

IntroductionPulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a major cause of mortality in connective tissue disease (CTD). We sought to quantify survival and determine factors predictive of mortality in a cohort of patients with CTD-associated PAH (CTD-PAH) in the current era of advanced PAH therapy.MethodsPatients with right heart catheter proven CTD-PAH were recruited from six specialised PAH treatment centres across Australia and followed prospectively. Using survival methods including Cox proportional hazards regression, we modelled for all-cause mortality. Independent variables included demographic, clinical and hemodynamic data.ResultsAmong 117 patients (104 (94.9%) with systemic sclerosis), during 2.6 ± 1.8 (mean ± SD) years of follow-up from PAH diagnosis, there were 32 (27.4%) deaths. One-, two- and three-year survivals were 94%, 89% and 73%, respectively. In multiple regression analysis, higher mean right atrial pressure (mRAP) at diagnosis (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.13, 95% CI: 1.04 to 1.24, P = 0.007), lower baseline six-minute walk distance (HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.43 to 0.97, P = 0.04), higher baseline World Health Organization functional class (HR = 3.42, 95% CI: 1.25 to 9.36, P = 0.04) and presence of a pericardial effusion (HR = 3.39, 95% CI: 1.07 to 10.68, P = 0.04) were predictive of mortality. Warfarin (HR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.78, P = 0.02) and combination PAH therapy (HR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.83, P = 0.03) were protective.ConclusionsIn this cohort of CTD-PAH patients, three-year survival was 73%. Independent therapeutic predictors of survival included warfarin and combination PAH therapy. Our findings suggest that anticoagulation and combination PAH therapy may improve survival in CTD-PAH. This observation merits further evaluation in randomised controlled trials.

Prevalence of coronary heart disease and cardiovascular risk factors in a national cross-sectional cohort study of systemic sclerosis

Objectives To determine the prevalence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular risk factors in a well-characterised cohort of systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients, and to compare this with the general population. Methods A cross-sectional study of the prevalence of CHD and cardiovascular risk factors in participants in the Australian Scleroderma Cohort Study was performed. Controls were drawn from the 2007–8 National Health Survey (NHS) and the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab). OR and 95% CI were calculated to determine the prevalence of CHD and cardiovascular risk factors in SSc patients compared with controls. Results Data were available for 850 SSc patients (86% female), 15 787 NHS participants (53% female) and 8802 AusDiab participants (56% female). Adjusted for age and gender, the OR of CHD in SSc patients was 1.9 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.4) compared with controls from AusDiab and 2.0 (95% CI 1.5 to 2.5) compared with controls from the NHS. The OR of CHD increased to 3.2 (95% CI 2.3 to 4.5) for SSc patients compared with controls from AusDiab after further adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. Hypercholesterolaemia, diabetes mellitus and obesity were significantly less prevalent in the SSc cohort than in AusDiab. Within the SSc cohort, the presence of pulmonary arterial hypertension was associated with CHD. Conclusions This is the first report of an increased prevalence of CHD in SSc patients. Further studies are required to determine the relative contribution of scleroderma-specific factors such as microvascular disease to the development of CHD.

Cardiovascular disease in systemic sclerosis - an emerging association?

Microvascular disease is a prominent feature of systemic sclerosis (SSc) and leads to Raynauds phenomenon, pulmonary arterial hypertension, and scleroderma renal crisis. The presence of macrovascular disease is less well established, and, in particular, it is not known whether the prevalence of coronary heart disease in SSc is increased. Furthermore, in terms of cardiac involvement in SSc, there remains conjecture about the relative contributions of atherosclerotic macrovascular disease and myocardial microvascular disease. In this review, we summarize the literature describing cardiovascular disease in SSc, discuss the pathophysiological mechanisms common to SSc and atherosclerosis, and review the surrogate markers of cardiovascular disease which have been examined in SSc. Proposed mediators of the vasculopathy of SSc which have also been implicated in atherosclerosis include endothelial dysfunction, a reduced number of circulating endothelial progenitor cells, and an increased number of microparticles. Excess cardiovascular risk in SSc is suggested by increased arterial stiffness and carotid intima thickening and reduced flow-mediated dilatation. Cohort studies of adequate size are required to resolve whether this translates into an increased incidence of cardiovascular events in patients with SSc.

A comparison of the predictive accuracy of three screening models for pulmonary arterial hypertension in systemic sclerosis

IntroductionThere is evidence that early screening for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) in systemic sclerosis (SSc) improves outcomes. We compared the predictive accuracy of two recently published screening algorithms (DETECT 2013 and Australian Scleroderma Interest Group (ASIG) 2012) for SSc-associated PAH (SSc-PAH) with the commonly used European Society of Cardiology/European Respiratory Society (ESC/ERS 2009) guidelines.MethodsWe included 73 consecutive SSc patients with suspected PAH undergoing right heart catheterization (RHC). The three screening models were applied to each patient. For each model, contingency table analysis was used to determine sensitivity, specificity, and positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values for PAH. These properties were also evaluated in an ‘alternate scenario analysis’ in which the prevalence of PAH was set at 10%.ResultsRHC revealed PAH in 27 (36.9%) patients. DETECT and ASIG algorithms performed equally in predicting PAH with sensitivity and NPV of 100%. The ESC/ERS guidelines had sensitivity of 96.3% and NPV of only 91%, missing one case of PAH; these guidelines could not be applied to three patients who had absent tricuspid regurgitant (TR) jet. The ASIG algorithm had the highest specificity (54.5%). With PAH prevalence set at 10%, the NPV of the models was unchanged, but the PPV dropped to less than 20%.ConclusionsIn this cohort, the DETECT and ASIG algorithms out-perform the ESC/ERS guidelines, detecting all patients with PAH. The ESC/ERS guidelines have limitations in the absence of a TR jet. Ultimately, the choice of SSc-PAH screening algorithm will also depend on cost and ease of application.

The inclusion of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide in a sensitive screening strategy for systemic sclerosis-related pulmonary arterial hypertension: a cohort study

IntroductionPulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a major cause of mortality in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Screening guidelines for PAH recommend multiple investigations, including annual echocardiography, which together have low specificity and may not be cost-effective. We sought to evaluate the predictive accuracy of serum N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in combination with pulmonary function tests (PFT) (‘proposed’ algorithm) in a screening algorithm for SSc-PAH.MethodsWe evaluated our proposed algorithm (PFT with NT-proBNP) on 49 consecutive SSc patients with suspected pulmonary hypertension undergoing right heart catherisation (RHC). The predictive accuracy of the proposed algorithm was compared with existing screening recommendations, and is presented as sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV).ResultsOverall, 27 patients were found to have pulmonary hypertension (PH) at RHC, while 22 had no PH. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of the proposed algorithm for PAH was 94.1%, 54.5%, 61.5% and 92.3%, respectively; current European Society of Cardiology (ESC)/European Respiratory Society (ERS) guidelines achieved a sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of 94.1%, 31.8%, 51.6% and 87.5%, respectively. In an alternate case scenario analysis, estimating a PAH prevalence of 10%, the proposed algorithm achieved a sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for PAH of 94.1%, 54.5%, 18.7% and 98.8%, respectively.ConclusionsThe combination of NT-proBNP with PFT is a sensitive, yet simple and non-invasive, screening strategy for SSc-PAH. Patients with a positive screening result can be referred for echocardiography, and further confirmatory testing for PAH. In this way, it may be possible to shift the burden of routine screening away from echocardiography. The findings of this study should be confirmed in larger studies.

Interpretation of an Extended Autoantibody Profile in a Well-Characterized Australian Systemic Sclerosis (Scleroderma) Cohort Using Principal Components Analysis

To determine the relationships between systemic sclerosis (SSc)–related autoantibodies, as well as their clinical associations, in a well‐characterized Australian patient cohort.

Fibrosing alveolitis in systemic sclerosis: the need for early screening and treatment

Abnormalities in lung function occur in 70% of patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc). Fibrosing alveolitis in SSc (FASSc) is more commonly seen in the diffuse cutaneous form of SSc, particularly in the presence of antitopoisomerase antibodies (Scl70), and with the decreasing incidence of scleroderma renal crisis it is now the major cause of mortality in this patient population. Screening of patients recently diagnosed with SSc by pulmonary function tests and the performance of high resolution computed tomography when physiological abnormalities are identified has resulted in the identification of significant numbers of patients with early, asymptomatic FASSc. Whether these patients should be further investigated with a surgical lung biopsy or receive immunosuppression is unclear, because it cannot yet be reliably predicted who will develop progressive disease and the evidence to support the efficacy of treatment is not strong. The objective of the present article was to review the evidence to support the use of immunosuppressive therapy in FASSc and, based on these data, to propose an algorithm for the investigation and management of this difficult clinical problem. (Intern Med J 2004; 34: 626−638)

An Immunochip-based interrogation of scleroderma susceptibility variants identifies a novel association at DNASE1L3

IntroductionThe aim of the study was to interrogate the genetic architecture and autoimmune pleiotropy of scleroderma susceptibility in the Australian population.MethodsWe genotyped individuals from a well-characterized cohort of Australian scleroderma patients with the Immunochip, a custom array enriched for single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at immune loci. Controls were taken from the 1958 British Birth Cohort. After data cleaning and adjusting for population stratification the final dataset consisted of 486 cases, 4,458 controls and 146,525 SNPs. Association analyses were conducted using logistic regression in PLINK. A replication study was performed using 833 cases and 1,938 controls.ResultsA total of eight loci with suggestive association (P <10−4.5) were identified, of which five showed significant association in the replication cohort (HLA-DRB1, DNASE1L3, STAT4, TNP03-IRF5 and VCAM1). The most notable findings were at the DNASE1L3 locus, previously associated with systemic lupus erythematosus, and VCAM1, a locus not previously associated with human disease. This study identified a likely functional variant influencing scleroderma susceptibility at the DNASE1L3 locus; a missense polymorphism rs35677470 in DNASE1L3, with an odds ratio of 2.35 (P = 2.3 × 10−10) in anti-centromere antibody (ACA) positive cases.ConclusionsThis pilot study has confirmed previously reported scleroderma associations, revealed further genetic overlap between scleroderma and systemic lupus erythematosus, and identified a putative novel scleroderma susceptibility locus.