João Guerra

Trends and Dilemmas Facing Environmental Education in Portugal: From Environmental Problem Assessment to Citizenship Involvement

Environmental education (EE) emerged in Portugal as an organized field of collective action about 30 years ago. At this time of the return to democracy, major social and environmental changes had begun to occur. Yet, after 30 years of EE, together with significant improvements in the education system and curricula, the real impacts of these mostly voluntary and aggressive efforts aimed at preparing future citizens to deal effectively and sensitively with environmental problem solving are not yet evident. The pathways and social context of these efforts aimed at upgrading EE in Portugal, and their apparent failure to meet their objectives, form the basis of the analysis in this paper. The authors examine the results of a survey questionnaire sent to 15,000 public and private schools all running projects formally associated with both EE and education for sustainable development (ESD). The primary purpose of the analysis was to identify the trends, constraints, and potentials for these EE/ESD projects and initiatives within primary and secondary schools. In addition, perspectives as to the emerging trends in ESD in Portugal are discussed, bearing in mind the shifting educational context.

Who's afraid of Local Agenda 21? Top-down and bottom-up perspectives on local sustainability

Local Agenda 21 is essentially a process of democratic practicing, insofar as it involves sharing political competencies in decision making by the local authorities, and the mobilisation of all citizens and civil society organisations in the process. It is, thus, a course of action in which the willingness and openness of local political leaders is as important as the ability of citizens to take the initiative of learning about and getting involved in local public life. Unfortunately, there are no more than twenty LA21 processes running in Portugal, and most of them do not fulfil all the parameters required. This paper discusses some hypotheses on the lack of success of LA21 in Portugal, which are related to structural political conditions for local governance and public participation. Resorting to some surveys on environmental policy issues (applied to both the municipal leaders and the population), the aim is to characterise the trends of mobilisation on local sustainability in Portuguese society, particularly with regard to the citizenry and local administrations.

The role of non-scholar organisations in environmental education: a case study from Portugal

The aim of this study was to identify, characterise, collect and systematise data on initiatives of environmental education in Portugal. Currently, there is no integrated governmental program on environmental education in this country, but only unrelated voluntary initiatives. Although surveys indicated a growing concern by young people on environmental issues, systematic studying on the issue was lacking. The field seemed to be characterised by wide diversity and disperse voluntary action by non-governmental agents and self-mobilised teachers. In the context of the Decade Dedicated to Education for Sustainable Development of UNESCO, governmental and non-governmental organisations dedicated to the environment now have a new opportunity to enhance and coordinate contributions to make environmental issues a priority for the next generation.

Subjective Probability Density Functions from FX Option Prices: Predictive Power and Performance on a Carry Trade Strategy*

In this article, we extracted the risk†neutral densities (RNDs) and subjective probability density functions of the US Dollar/Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) exchange rate and evaluated its performance in predicting the future realizations of the USD/BRL exchange rate. The RNDs were estimated using two structural models and three nonstructural models. In the first category, we included the Variance Gamma†OU model and the CGMY Gamma†OU model. In the second category, we included the density functional based on confluent hypergeometric function model, the mixture of lognormal distributions model, and the smoothed implied volatility smile. The density functional based on confluent hypergeometric function and the CGMY Gamma†OU produced 1†month term densities (RND and subjective probability density function) with the highest forecasting power of the 1†month USD/BRL exchange rate. Finally, we applied the CGMY Gamma†OU model to extract a sample of subjective cumulative probabilities of 1†month USD/BRL movements, and used them as explanatory variables in predictive time series models, whose dependent variable was the 1†month carry trade return. Its predictive power was then tested and confirmed in three trading strategies that over performed the standard carry trade strategy in terms of annualized cumulative returns.

Indifference Pricing in a Market with Transaction Costs and Jumps

We present an approach for pricing a European call option in presence of proportional transaction costs, considering the dynamics of the stock price following a general exponential Levy process. The model is a generalization of the celebrated work of Davis, Panas and Zariphopoulou, where the value of the option is defined as the utility indifference price. This approach requires the solution of two stochastic singular control problems in finite time, satisfying the same Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation with different terminal conditions. Numerical results are obtained by Markov chain approximation methods. Option prices are computed for both writer and buyer, when the returns follow a Brownian motion and a Variance Gamma process.

Concretizar o wishful thinking: dos ODS à COP21

The drive to economic growth has persisted in contemporary societies, despite its effects on the very foundations of the global economy, whereas the discourse of sustainability has not surpassed the level of “wishful thinking”. The evolution of the global ecological footprint, which underlines climate change impact, points to a narrow path in the reconciliation of social and environmental imperatives for present and future generations and to a redoubled need for social and environmental equity. Within an approach that postulates a stronger connection between discourse and practice, both Sustainable Development Goals and COP21 Paris Agreement strengthen the strategy of universal involvement and commitment, recognizing the meagre nature of results obtained so far, and demanding alternative action for effective change regarding a new and strategic global agenda. This article reflects on this universal desideratum which requires redoubled attention to the decline – and also recovery of environmental and social conditions.