João Honrado

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as both suitable for rare native species and highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated with similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions.

The Earth Observation Data for Habitat Monitoring (EODHaM) System

To support decisions relating to the use and conservation of protected areas and surrounds, the EU-funded BIOdiversity multi-SOurce monitoring System: from Space TO Species (BIO_SOS) project has developed the Earth Observation Data for HAbitat Monitoring (EODHaM) system for consistent mapping and monitoring of biodiversity. The EODHaM approach has adopted the Food and Agriculture Organization Land Cover Classification System (LCCS) taxonomy and translates mapped classes to General Habitat Categories (GHCs) from which Annex I habitats (EU Habitats Directive) can be defined. The EODHaM system uses a combination of pixel and object-based procedures. The 1st and 2nd stages use earth observation (EO) data alone with expert knowledge to generate classes according to the LCCS taxonomy (Levels 1 to 3 and beyond). The 3rd stage translates the final LCCS classes into GHCs from which Annex I habitat type maps are derived. An additional module quantifies changes in the LCCS classes and their components, indices derived from earth observation, object sizes and dimensions and the translated habitat maps (i.e., GHCs or Annex I). Examples are provided of the application of EODHaM system elements to protected sites and their surrounds in Italy, Wales (UK), the Netherlands, Greece, Portugal and India.

Endemic Sand Dune Vegetation of the Northwest Iberian Peninsula: Diversity, Dynamics, and Significance for Bioindication and Monitoring of Coastal Landscapes

Abstract Coastal areas are sensitive systems suffering both natural and anthropic pressures. Specifically, coastal sand dune dynamics is related with observable modifications in plant communities, and this relationship is being pointed out in recent years as a monitoring tool in littoral areas. Plant community types, with a relatively stable floristic composition related to specific ecologic conditions (“plant associations”), provide a suitable tool for bioindication within monitoring processes and in the management of littoral areas. In this regard, recent bio-geologic studies performed in dune systems of Southwest Europe allowed the identification of a number of specific bioindicators for both mobile and interior dunes. In Northwest Iberian Peninsula, sand dune vegetation is distinguished by its transitional character between typical Atlantic and Mediterranean vegetation types, and its originality is still enhanced by the occurrence of narrow endemic species and by the fact that most vegetation types are endemic to the territory. The organisation of these community types within dune systems is strongly determined by specific dynamic processes mediated by both natural and anthropic disturbances, so they present a large potential for bioindication of coastal dynamics and conservation status. In this paper, the most significant ecologic, floristic and biogeographic characters of sand dune vegetation in Northwest Iberian Peninsula are discussed with the purpose of demonstrating the usefulness of well-defined vegetation types for bioindication within the context of both short- and long-term monitoring of coastal sand dune systems.

Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

Designing Optimized Multi-Species Monitoring Networks to Detect Range Shifts Driven by Climate Change: A Case Study with Bats in the North of Portugal

Here we develop a framework to design multi-species monitoring networks using species distribution models and conservation planning tools to optimize the location of monitoring stations to detect potential range shifts driven by climate change. For this study, we focused on seven bat species in Northern Portugal (Western Europe). Maximum entropy modelling was used to predict the likely occurrence of those species under present and future climatic conditions. By comparing present and future predicted distributions, we identified areas where each species is likely to gain, lose or maintain suitable climatic space. We then used a decision support tool (the Marxan software) to design three optimized monitoring networks considering: a) changes in species likely occurrence, b) species conservation status, and c) level of volunteer commitment. For present climatic conditions, species distribution models revealed that areas suitable for most species occur in the north-eastern part of the region. However, areas predicted to become climatically suitable in the future shifted towards west. The three simulated monitoring networks, adaptable for an unpredictable volunteer commitment, included 28, 54 and 110 sampling locations respectively, distributed across the study area and covering the potential full range of conditions where species range shifts may occur. Our results show that our framework outperforms the traditional approach that only considers current species ranges, in allocating monitoring stations distributed across different categories of predicted shifts in species distributions. This study presents a straightforward framework to design monitoring schemes aimed specifically at testing hypotheses about where and when species ranges may shift with climatic changes, while also ensuring surveillance of general population trends.

Systematic site selection for multispecies monitoring networks

Summary 1. The importance of monitoring biodiversity to detect and understand changes throughout time and to inform management is increasingly recognized. Monitoring schemes should be globally unified, spatially integrated across scales, long term, and cost-efficient. 2. We propose a framework to design optimized multispecies-targeted monitoring networks over large areas. The method builds upon previous developments on systematic conservation planning in terms of optimizing resource allocation in space, and comprises seven steps: (a) determine which questions will be addressed, (b) define species to be monitored, (c) compile occurrence data for all defined species, (d) predict the overall distribution of each species, (e) collect relevant environmental data and identify homogeneous strata, (f) set targets for the minimum number of monitoring sites per species and/or stratum and (g) identify optimal monitoring sites. 3. We tested whether the monitoring networks designed with our framework have increased performance when compared to networks obtained with simple-random or stratified-random sampling by using a set of different indicators. To that end, we designed monitoring networks using optimized and non-optimized sampling schemes, applied to a case study in Portugal, where the goal was to design a monitoring network for amphibians and reptiles, to complement the one currently established in Spain. 4. Results allowed us to conclude that monitoring networks designed with our method tend to outperform the non-optimized ones, in terms of higher species diversity (i.e. higher number of species and equity across monitoring sites), higher representation of environmental strata, and particularly higher coverage of rare species, with less survey effort. 5. Synthesis and applications. We developed a framework to allocate monitoring sites for multiple species at broad scales using predictive models and optimization algorithms currently applied in systematic conservation planning. This framework presents field survey cost-efficiency advantages when compared to other standard sampling designs and can significantly contribute to improving the design of monitoring schemes. Thus, we recommend its application to design new multispecies monitoring networks or to extend existing ones.

Simulating long-term effects of abandonment on plant diversity in Mediterranean mountain farmland

In this paper, long-term impacts of meadow abandonment scenarios on plant diversity were forecasted for high nature value farmland in northern Portugal, and implications for conservation planning and agri-environmental management are addressed. Vegetation patches representative of forests, meadows and edges, on mesic and wet soils, were surveyed for vascular plant diversity. Species richness and composition were compared across vegetation types, and additive partitioning was used to quantify hierarchic components of species richness. The implications of total and partial meadow abandonment were simulated according to landscape outcomes predicted for each scenario, and confirmed with a Monte-Carlo resampling. Forests hosted the highest number of species, as well as of exclusive species. Nonetheless, from the total pool (213), 21.6% were exclusive to meadows. Vegetation types generally shared small proportions of their species pools. With total meadow abandonment, a drastic decrease in total species richness (41.1%) and in endemic species richness (loss of 20.8%) was forecasted. However, only 12.3% of all species were forecasted to disappear under scenarios of partial abandonment. Landscape-level plant diversity can, therefore, be maintained by promoting farmland mosaics, even if the loss of scattered meadows in favour of native forests could be acceptable. Agri-environmental schemes should thus prioritize the maintenance of landscape heterogeneity.

Fostering integration between biodiversity monitoring and modelling

Jo~ ao P. Honrado*, Henrique M. Pereira and Antoine Guisan InBIO Rede de Investigac ~ ao em Biodiversidade e Biologia Evolutiva/CIBIO Centro de Investigac ~ ao em Biodiversidade e Recursos Gen eticos, Universidade do Porto, Campus Agr ario de Vair~ ao, 4485-601 Vair~ ao, Portugal; Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Rua do Campo Alegre, Edif ıcio FC4, 4169-007 Porto, Portugal; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany; Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108 Halle (Saale), Germany; Department of Ecology & Evolution, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland; and Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland

The progress of interdisciplinarity in invasion science.

Abstract Interdisciplinarity is needed to gain knowledge of the ecology of invasive species and invaded ecosystems, and of the human dimensions of biological invasions. We combine a quantitative literature review with a qualitative historical narrative to document the progress of interdisciplinarity in invasion science since 1950. Our review shows that 92.4% of interdisciplinary publications (out of 9192) focus on ecological questions, 4.4% on social ones, and 3.2% on social–ecological ones. The emergence of invasion science out of ecology might explain why interdisciplinarity has remained mostly within the natural sciences. Nevertheless, invasion science is attracting social–ecological collaborations to understand ecological challenges, and to develop novel approaches to address new ideas, concepts, and invasion-related questions between scholars and stakeholders. We discuss ways to reframe invasion science as a field centred on interlinked social–ecological dynamics to bring science, governance and society together in a common effort to deal with invasions.

Using life strategies to explore the vulnerability of ecosystem services to invasion by alien plants

Invasive plants can have different effects on ecosystem functioning and on the provision of ecosystem services, with the direction and magnitude of such effects depending on the service and ecosystem being considered, but also on the life strategies of the invaders. Strategies can influence invasiveness, but also key processes of host ecosystems. To address the combined effects of these various factors, we developed a methodological framework to identify areas of possible conflict between ecosystem services and alien invasive plants, considering interactions between landscape invasibility and species invasiveness. Our framework combines multi-model inference, efficient techniques to map ecosystem services, and life strategies. The latter provides a functional link between invasion, functional changes, and potential provision of services by invaded ecosystems. The framework was applied to a region in Portugal, for which we could successfully predict current patterns of plant invasion, of ecosystem service provision, and of potential conflict between alien species richness and the potential provision of selected services. Potential conflicts were identified for all combinations of plant strategy and ecosystem service, with an emphasis on carbon sequestration, water regulation, and wood production. Lower levels of conflict were obtained between invasive plant strategies and the habitat for biodiversity supporting service. The value of the proposed framework for landscape management and planning is discussed with emphasis on anticipation of conflicts, mitigation of negative impacts, and facilitation of positive effects of plant invasions on ecosystems and their services.