Jocelyn Mailhot

Operational Implementation of the ISBA Land Surface Scheme in the Canadian Regional Weather Forecast Model. Part II: Cold Season Results

Abstract The performance of a modified version of the snow scheme included in the Interactions between Surface–Biosphere–Atmosphere (ISBA) land surface scheme, which was operationally implemented into the regional weather forecast system at the Canadian Meteorological Centre, is examined in this study. Stand-alone verification tests conducted prior to the operational implementation showed that ISBAs new snow package was able to realistically reproduce the main characteristics of a snow cover, such as snow water equivalent and density, for five winter datasets taken at Col de Porte, France, and at Goose Bay, Newfoundland, Canada. A number of modifications to ISBAs snow model (i.e., new liquid water reservoir in the snowpack, new formulation of snow density, and melting effect of incident rainfall on the snowpack) were found to improve the numerical representation of snow characteristics. Objective scores for the fully interactive preimplementation tests carried out with the Canadian regional weather fore...

Boundary Layer and Shallow Cumulus Clouds in a Medium-Range Forecast of a Large-Scale Weather System

Abstract The role and impact that boundary layer and shallow cumulus clouds have on the medium-range forecast of a large-scale weather system is discussed in this study. A mesoscale version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) atmospheric model is used to produce a 5-day numerical forecast of a midlatitude large-scale weather system that occurred over the Pacific Ocean during February 2003. In this version of GEM, four different schemes are used to represent (i) boundary layer clouds (including stratus, stratocumulus, and small cumulus clouds), (ii) shallow cumulus clouds (overshooting cumulus), (iii) deep convection, and (iv) nonconvective clouds. Two of these schemes, that is, the so-called MoisTKE and Kuo Transient schemes for boundary layer and overshooting cumulus clouds, respectively, have been recently introduced in GEM and are described in more detail. The results show that GEM, with this new cloud package, is able to represent the wide variety of clouds observed in association with the la...

Medium-Range Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from Canada's New 33-km Deterministic Global Operational System

Abstract The Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) recently implemented a 33-km version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model, with improved physics, for medium-range weather forecasts. Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from this new system were compared with those from the previous global operational system (100-km grid size) and with those from MSC’s short-range (48 h) regional system (15-km grid size). The evaluation is based on performance measures that evaluate bias, accuracy, and the value of the QPFs. Results presented in this article consistently show, for these three aspects of the evaluation, that the new global forecast system (GLBNEW) agrees more closely with observations, relative to the performance of the previous global system (GLBOLD). The biases are noticeably smaller with GLBNEW compared with GLBOLD, which severely overpredicts (underpredicts) the frequencies and total amounts associated with weak (strong) precipitation intensities. The accuracy and value scores r...

The Canadian Regional Data Assimilation System: Operational and Research Applications

Abstract The Canadian regional data assimilation system is described. It is a spinup cycle designed to provide the regional finite-element forecast model with more detailed analyses in a dynamically consistent manner. Its operational performance is evaluated using performance statistics, and a case study is presented to highlight some of the benefits. These include analyses that better fit the data and more detailed and accurate forecasts, particularly for precipitation. The system also benefits research applications. To illustrate this the authors describe the preparation of the first set of analysts for the international COMPARE (Comparison of Mesoscale Prediction and Research Experiments) Project. The scientific interest of this explosive marine cyclogenetic case is discussed, together with a useful methodology for determining the minimum domain size required by a regional model to avoid forecast contamination from lateral boundaries.

An examination of local versus nonlocal aspects of a TKE-based boundary layer scheme in clear convective conditions

In this study, the ability of a turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)‐based boundary layer scheme to reproduce the rapid evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) observed during two clear convective days is examined together with the impact of including nonlocal features in the boundary layer scheme. The two cases are chosen from the Montreal-96 Experiment on Regional Mixing and Ozone (MERMOZ): one is characterized by strong buoyancy, a strong capping inversion, and weak vertical wind shear ; the other displays moderate buoyancy, a weaker subsidence inversion, and significant wind shear near the PBL top. With the original local version of the turbulence scheme, the model reproduces the vertical structures and turbulent quantities observed in the well-developed boundary layer for the first case. For the second case, the model fails to reproduce the rapid evolution of the boundary layer even though the TKE and sensible heat fluxes are greatly overpredicted. Some nonlocal aspects of the turbulence scheme are tested for these two cases. Inclusion of nonlocal (countergradient) terms in the vertical diffusivity equation has little impact on the simulated PBL. In contrast, alternative

Evaluation of the Town Energy Balance Model in Cold and Snowy Conditions during the Montreal Urban Snow Experiment 2005

Abstract Using the Montreal Urban Snow Experiment (MUSE) 2005 database, surface radiation and energy exchanges are simulated in offline mode with the Town Energy Balance (TEB) and the Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere (ISBA) parameterizations over a heavily populated residential area of Montreal, Quebec, Canada, during the winter–spring transition period (from March to April 2005). The comparison of simulations with flux measurements indicates that the system performs well when roads and alleys are snow covered. In contrast, the storage heat flux is largely underestimated in favor of the sensible heat flux at the end of the period when snow is melted. An evaluation and an improvement of TEB’s snow parameterization have also been conducted by using snow property measurements taken during intensive observational periods. Snow density, depth, and albedo are correctly simulated by TEB for alleys where snow cover is relatively homogeneous. Results are not as good for the evolution of snow on...

Environment Canada's Experimental Numerical Weather Prediction Systems for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games

The 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games took place in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, on 12–28 February and 12–21 March 2010, respectively. Weather forecasting presents specific challenges at the various Olympic venues, which are located in complex coastal terrain and are often characterized by tricky weather conditions, such as high winds, low visibility, and rapidly varying precipitation types and intensity. In addition to its current operational products, and in order to provide the best possible guidance and support to the Olympic Forecast Team, Environment Canada has developed several experimental numerical weather prediction systems for the games. These include 1) a regional ensemble prediction system (REPS), 2) high-resolution numerical modeling (down to 1-km horizontal grid spacing), and 3) surface modeling at the microscales (100-m grid spacing). The REPS is based on the limited-area version of the Global Environmental Multiscale model (GEM-LAM), with 20 members at 33-km horizontal grid...

A Regional Model Intercomparison Using a Case of Explosive Oceanic Cyclogenesis

Abstract The authors evaluate the performance of current regional models in an intercomparison project for a case of explosive secondary marine cyclogenesis occurring during the Canadian Atlantic Storms Project and the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment of 1986. Several systematic errors are found that have been identified in the refereed literature in prior years. There is a high (low) sea level pressure bias and a cold (warm) tropospheric temperature error in the oceanic (continental) regions. Though individual model participants produce central pressures of the secondary cyclone close to the observed during the final stages of its life cycle, systematically weak systems are simulated during the critical early stages of the cyclogenesis. Additionally, the simulations produce an excessively weak (strong) continental anticyclone (cyclone); implications of these errors are discussed in terms of the secondary cyclogenesis. Little relationship between strong performance in predicting the mass field and skil...

An Experimental High-Resolution Forecast System During the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games

Environment Canada ran an experimental numerical weather prediction (NWP) system during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games, consisting of nested high-resolution (down to 1-km horizontal grid-spacing) configurations of the GEM–LAM model, with improved geophysical fields, cloud microphysics and radiative transfer schemes, and several new diagnostic products such as density of falling snow, visibility, and peak wind gust strength. The performance of this experimental NWP system has been evaluated in these winter conditions over complex terrain using the enhanced mesoscale observing network in place during the Olympics. As compared to the forecasts from the operational regional 15-km GEM model, objective verification generally indicated significant added value of the higher-resolution models for near-surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, and dewpoint temperature) with the 1-km model providing the best forecast accuracy. Appreciable errors were noted in all models for the forecasts of wind direction and humidity near the surface. Subjective assessment of several cases also indicated that the experimental Olympic system was skillful at forecasting meteorological phenomena at high-resolution, both spatially and temporally, and provided enhanced guidance to the Olympic forecasters in terms of better timing of precipitation phase change, squall line passage, wind flow channeling, and visibility reduction due to fog and snow.

Simulation of an Orographic Precipitation Event during IMPROVE-2. Part II: Sensitivity to the Number of Moments in the Bulk Microphysics Scheme

Abstract This is the second in a series of papers examining the behavior of the Milbrandt–Yau multimoment bulk microphysics scheme for the simulation of the 13–14 December 2001 case of orographically enhanced precipitation observed during the second Improvement of Microphysical Parameterization through Observational Verification Experiment (IMPROVE-2) experiment. The sensitivity to the number of predicted moments of the hydrometeor size spectra in the bulk scheme was investigated. The triple-moment control simulations presented in Part I were rerun using double- and single-moment configurations of the multimoment scheme as well the single-moment Kong–Yau scheme. Comparisons of total precipitation and in-cloud hydrometeor mass contents were made between the simulations and observations, with the focus on a 2-h quasi-steady period of heavy stratiform precipitation. The double- and triple-moment simulations were similar; both had realistic precipitation fields, though generally overpredicted in quantity, and...