Joël Gailhard

Regional methods for trend detection: Assessing field significance and regional consistency

This paper describes regional methods for assessing field significance and regional consistency for trend detection in hydrological extremes. Four procedures for assessing field significance are compared on the basis of Monte Carlo simulations. Then three regional tests, based on a regional variable, on the regional average Mann-Kendall test, and a new semiparametric approach, are tested. The latter was found to be the most adequate to detect consistent changes within homogeneous hydro-climatic regions. Finally, these procedures are applied to France, using daily discharge data arising from 195 gauging stations. No generalized change was found at the national scale on the basis of the field significance assessment of at-site results. Hydro-climatic regions were then defined, and the semiparametric procedure applied. Most of the regions showed no consistent change, but three exceptions were found: in the northeast flood peaks were found to increase, in the Pyrenees high and low flows showed decreasing trends, and in the Alps, earlier snowmelt-related floods were detected, along with less severe drought and increasing runoff due to glacier melting. The trend affecting floods in the northeast was compared to changes in rainfall, using rainfall-runoff simulation. The results showed flood trends consistent with the observed rainfall.

Spatial Similarity and Transferability of Analog Dates for Precipitation Downscaling over France

AbstractHigh-resolution weather scenarios generated for climate change impact studies from the output of climate models must be spatially consistent. Analog models (AMs) offer a high potential for the generation of such scenarios. For each prediction day, the scenario they provide is the weather observed for days in a historical archive that are analogous according to different predictors. When the same “analog date” is chosen for a prediction at several sites, spatial consistency is automatically satisfied. The optimal predictors and consequently the optimal analog dates, however, are expected to depend on the location for which the prediction is to be made.In the present work, the predictor (1000- and 500-hPa geopotential heights) domain of a benchmark AM is optimized for the probabilistic daily prediction of 8981 local precipitation “stations” over France. The corresponding 8981 locally domain-optimized AMs are used to explore the spatial transferability and similarity of the optimal analog dates obtai...

Hydrologically Aided Interpolation of Daily Precipitation and Temperature Fields in a Mesoscale Alpine Catchment

AbstractHydrological modeling in mountainous regions, where catchment hydrology is heavily influenced by snow (and possibly ice) processes, is a challenging task. The intrinsic complexity of local processes is added to the difficulty of estimating spatially distributed inputs such as precipitation and temperature, which often exhibit a high spatial heterogeneity that cannot be fully captured by measurement networks. Hence, an interpolation step is often required prior to the hydrological modeling step. Usually, the reconstruction of meteorological forcings and the calibration of the hydrological model are done sequentially. The outputs of the hydrological model (discharge estimates) may give some insight into the quality of the forcings used to feed it, but in this two-step independent analysis, it is not possible to easily feed the interpolation scheme back with the discrepancies between observed and simulated discharges. Yet, despite having undergone the rainfall–runoff (or snow–runoff) transformation, ...

Dependence of model-based extreme flood estimation on the calibration period: case study of the Kamp River (Austria)

Abstract The Kamp River is a particularly interesting case study for testing flood frequency estimation methods, since it experienced a major flood in August 2002. Here, the Kamp catchment is studied in order to quantify the influence of such a remarkable flood event on the calibration of a rainfall–runoff model, in particular when it is used in a stochastic simulation method for flood estimation, by performing numerous rainfall–runoff model calibrations (based on split-sample and bootstrap tests). The results confirmed the usefulness of the multi-period and bootstrap testing schemes for identifying the dependence of model performance and flood estimates on the information contained in the calibration period. The August 2002 event appears to play a dominating role for the Kamp River, since the presence or absence of the event within the calibration sub-periods strongly influences the rainfall–runoff model calibration and the extreme flood estimations that are based on the calibrated model.

Impact of model structure on flow simulation and hydrologicalrealism: from lumped to semi-distributed approach

Model intercomparison experiments are widely used to investigate and improve hydrological model performance. However, a study based only on runoff simulation is not sufficient to discriminate between different model structures. Hence, there is a need to improve hydrological models for specific streamflow signatures (e.g., low and high flow) and multi-variable predictions (e.g., soil moisture, snow and groundwater). This study assesses the impact of model structure on flow simulation and hydrological realism using three versions of a hydrological model called MORDOR: the historical lumped structure and a revisited formulation available in both lumped and semi-distributed structures. In particular, the main goal of this paper is to investigate the relative impact of model equations and spatial discretization on flow simulation, snowpack representation and evapotranspiration estimation. Comparison of the models is based on an extensive dataset composed of 50 catchments located in French mountainous regions. The evaluation framework is founded on a multi-criterion split-sample strategy. All models were calibrated using an automatic optimization method based on an efficient genetic algorithm. The evaluation framework is enriched by the assessment of snow and evapotranspiration modeling against in situ and satellite data. The results showed that the new model formulations perform significantly better than the initial one in terms of the various streamflow signatures, snow and evapotranspiration predictions. The semi-distributed approach provides better calibration–validation performance for the snow cover area, snow water equivalent and runoff simulation, especially for nival catchments.

Unconstrained nonlinear optimization of a distributed SWE model using MODIS and in situ measurements over the French Alps

In this paper we propose the optimization of the snow sub-model of MORDOR using MODIS and in situ measurements for the case study of the Serre-Ponçon reservoir (one of the largest artificial lakes in Western Europe) on the Durance River in the French Alps. We consider the problem of optimizing the snow model as an unconstrained nonlinear optimization problem.