Joel N. Hartter

Resource use and ecosystem services in a forest park landscape.

Dependence upon forest fragments and wetlands by local people outside Kibale National Park in western Uganda illustrates the challenge for rural communities in meeting resource needs, while also controlling overuse and degradation. Using a new geographically stratified, random sampling technique to select study sites, 130 households outside Kibale were interviewed to understand how local uses (e.g., firewood, water) and importance of such fragments (e.g., ecosystem services) depend on household location, size of fragment, and demographic characteristics. While a large majority of households derived material benefits from both wetland and forest fragments, only a minority perceived fragments as providing ecosystem services. Households that derived benefits from fragments tended to live farther from the park, though benefits were largely unrelated to the size of the nearest fragment. An understanding of the importance of these areas is critical for conservationists and park managers when developing cooperative management agreements or outreach programs.

Dwindling resources and fragmentation of landscapes around parks: wetlands and forest patches around Kibale National Park, Uganda

Landscapes surrounding parks in most of the developing world, while still containing considerable biodiversity, also have rapidly growing human populations and associated agricultural development. Since the establishment of Kibale National Park first as a Crown Forest Reserve in 1932 and later as a park in 1993 in western Uganda, most access and resource extraction has been prohibited. The park has become nearly a complete island of forested land cover surrounded by intensive small-scale agriculture and some large-scale tea plantations, along with a network of wetland and forest patches. As the population grows outside the park and land becomes more scarce, remaining forests and wetlands are being used more intensively for material resources (e.g., fuelwood, building poles) and converted to other land uses (e.g., pasture, agriculture). This study uses both discrete and continuous data analyses of satellite imagery to examine these diminishing resource bases at the landscape level placing the results within the social context of conservation and parks. Findings reveal that the park boundaries have remained fairly intact whereas, the landscape surrounding the park has become increasingly fragmented. From a landscape perspective, while the park has indeed maintained its forest cover, it has become increasingly islandized with wetland and forest patches in the surrounding landscape becoming smaller in number and size. Those that have survived are now more isolated and even lower productivity than in 1984, which may be a precursor to their eventual loss in this landscape.

Patterns and Perceptions of Climate Change in a Biodiversity Conservation Hotspot

Quantifying local peoples perceptions to climate change, and their assessments of which changes matter, is fundamental to addressing the dual challenge of land conservation and poverty alleviation in densely populated tropical regions To develop appropriate policies and responses, it will be important not only to anticipate the nature of expected changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local residents. The Albertine Rift region in East Africa is one of the worlds most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense smallholder agriculture, high levels of land and resource pressures, and habitat loss and conversion. Results of three separate household surveys conducted in the vicinity of Kibale National Park during the late 2000s indicate that farmers are concerned with variable precipitation. Many survey respondents reported that conditions are drier and rainfall timing is becoming less predictable. Analysis of daily rainfall data for the climate normal period 1981 to 2010 indicates that total rainfall both within and across seasons has not changed significantly, although the timing and transitions of seasons has been highly variable. Results of rainfall data analysis also indicate significant changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall distribution, including longer dry periods within rainy seasons, which may contribute to the perceived decrease in rainfall and can compromise food security. Our results highlight the need for fine-scale climate information to assist agro-ecological communities in developing effective adaptive management.

Local responses to a forest park in western Uganda: alternate narratives on fortress conservation

Most research on attitudes to parks in sub-Saharan Africa has been in savannah regions and areas of low population density. Expulsion, exclusion and the imposition of external control are dominant themes, resulting in negative responses to parks, particularly those that represent hard-edged so-called fortress conservation. Our research in the densely populated area around a mid altitude forest park in western Uganda found an alternate narrative in which, despite its hard-edged fortress features, most people view Kibale National Park favourably. Based on a geographically random sample in two agricultural areas neighbouring the Park, our results indicate that most households felt they benefit from the Park and only a small proportion cited negative impacts. Rather than direct economic returns, the benefits most commonly noted by respondents can be characterized as ecosystem services. Most individual respondents and a large majority of the local political leaders said that the Park should continue to exist. Crop raiding by animals from the Park is a problem in some locations but resource restrictions and expulsion were not widely cited by our respondents. The fact that the large majority of residents migrated to the area after the Park was established may be an important explanatory factor for these responses, and this is also likely to be the case for many other mid altitude tropical forest parks, the demographic and land-use histories of which differ from those around many savannah parks.

Attitudes of Rural Communities Toward Wetlands and Forest Fragments Around Kibale National Park, Uganda

Rapid population growth, high population density, and intensive agriculture characterize the landscape surrounding Kibale National Park in western Uganda. Forest fragments and wetlands scattered throughout the agricultural landscape provide important natural resources for local people. These forest fragments, however, also provide habitat for animals that raid crops and threaten local agricultural practices, leading to human–wildlife conflict in the buffer zone of the park. Using a geographically stratified, random sampling technique to select study sites, 130 households outside Kibale were interviewed to understand human–agriculture–wildlife conflicts and how these problems vary spatially and demographically. Primates were the most common taxa associated with crop raiding, with vervet and redtail monkeys ranked as the worst crop raiders overall. Baboons and elephants were also problematic in agricultural areas proximate to the park boundary. Despite the problems reported, most respondents prefer to live closer to forest fragments and wetlands because of greater access to natural resources.

Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change.

A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews) yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40%) concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15%) say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire) finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010–2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state’s time series—suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus.

Validation of Satellite Rainfall Products for Western Uganda

Central equatorial Africa is deficient in long-term, ground-based measurements of rainfall; therefore, the aim of this study is to assess the accuracy of three high-resolution, satellite-based rainfall products in western Uganda for the 2001‐10 period. The three products are African Rainfall Climatology, version 2 (ARC2); African Rainfall Estimation Algorithm, version 2 (RFE2); and 3B42 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, version 7 (i.e., 3B42v7). Daily rainfall totals from six gauges were used to assess the accuracy of satellite-based rainfall estimates of rainfall days, daily rainfall totals, 10-day rainfall totals, monthly rainfall totals, and seasonal rainfall totals. The northern stations had a mean annual rainfall total of 1390 mm, while the southern stations had a mean annual rainfall total of 900 mm. 3B42v7 was the only product that did not underestimate boreal-summer rainfall at the northern stations, which had ; 3t imes as much rainfall during boreal summer than did the southern stations. The three products tended to overestimate rainfall days at all stations and were borderline satisfactory at identifying rainfall days at the northern stations; the products did not perform satisfactorily at the southern stations. At the northern stations, 3B42v7 performed satisfactorily at estimating monthly and seasonal rainfall totals, ARC2 was only satisfactory at estimating seasonal rainfall totals, and RFE2 did not perform satisfactorily at any time step. The satellite products performed worst at the two stations located in rain shadows, and 3B42v7 had substantial overestimates at those stations.

Demand and proximity: drivers of illegal forest resource extraction.

Illegal extraction from protected areas is often shaped by the surrounding socio-economic landscape. We coupled village-scale socio-economic parameters collected using household surveys with measured levels of illegal resource extraction proximate to study villages to investigate the socio-economic drivers of illegal extraction from Kibale National Park, Uganda. The level of illegal tree harvesting and the number of illegal entry trails into the Park were driven by subsistence demand from villages adjacent to the Park and by for-profit extraction to supply local urban markets, whereas grazing in the Park was linked to high livestock ownership. Capital asset wealth, excluding livestock, was found to mitigate illegal resource extraction from the Park. We also found high human population density to coincide spatially with park-based tourism, research and carbon sequestration employment opportunities. Conservation strategies should be integrated with national policy to meet the needs of local communities and to manage urban demand to reduce illegal extraction from protected areas.

Trust in Scientists on Climate Change and Vaccines

On climate change and other topics, conservatives have taken positions at odds with a strong scientific consensus. Claims that this indicates a broad conservative distrust of science have been countered by assertions that while conservatives might oppose the scientific consensus on climate change or evolution, liberals oppose scientists on some other domains such as vaccines. Evidence for disproportionately liberal bias against science on vaccines has been largely anecdotal, however. Here, we test this proposition of opposite biases using 2014 survey data from Oregon and New Hampshire. Across vaccine as well as climate change questions on each of these two surveys, we find that Democrats are most likely to say they trust scientists for information, and Tea Party supporters are least likely, contradicting the proposition of opposite bias. Moreover, partisan divisions tend to widen with education. Theoretical explanations that have been offered for liberal trust or conservative distrust of science in other specific domains such as climate change or environmental protection fit less well with these results on vaccines. Given the much different content of climate change and vaccine issues, the common political pattern appears more consistent with hypotheses of broader ideological divisions on acceptance of science.

Landscapes as continuous entities: forest disturbance and recovery in the Albertine Rift landscape

Kibale National Park, within the Albertine Rift, is known for its rich biodiversity. High human population density and agricultural conversion in the surrounding landscape have created enormous resource pressure on forest fragments outside the park. Kibale presents a complex protected forest landscape comprising intact forest inside the park, logged areas inside the park, a game corridor with degraded forest, and forest fragments in the landscape surrounding the park. To explore the effect of these different levels of forest management and protection over time, we assessed forest change over the previous three decades, using both discrete and continuous data analyses of satellite imagery. Park boundaries have remained fairly intact and forest cover has been maintained or increased inside the park, while there has been a high level of deforestation in the landscape surrounding the park. While absolute changes in land cover are important changes in vegetation productivity, within land cover classes are often more telling of longer term changes and future directions of change. The park has lower Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values than the forest fragments outside the park and the formerly logged area—probably due to forest regeneration and early succession stage. The corridor region has lower productivity, which is surprising given this is also a newer regrowth region and so should be similar to the logged and forest fragments. Overall, concern can be raised for the future trajectory of this park. Although forest cover has been maintained, forest health may be an issue, which for future management, climate change, biodiversity, and increased human pressure may signify troubling signs.