Joern Birkmann

Resilience and vulnerability: complementary or conflicting concepts?

Resilience and vulnerability represent two related yet different approaches to understanding the response of systems and actors to change; to shocks and surprises, as well as slow creeping changes. Their respective origins in ecological and social theory largely explain the continuing differences in approach to social-ecological dimensions of change. However, there are many areas of strong convergence. This paper explores the emerging linkages and complementarities between the concepts of resilience and vulnerability to identify areas of synergy. We do this with regard to theory, methodology, and application. The paper seeks to go beyond just recognizing the complementarities between the two approaches to demonstrate how researchers are actively engaging with each field to coproduce new knowledge, and to suggest promising areas of complementarity that are likely to further research and action in the field.

Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales: Applicability, usefulness and policy implications

Abstract This paper outlines selected approaches to measuring risk and vulnerability to hazards of natural origin using indicators and indices. It discusses their applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Indicators and indices have been developed on different scales and for different purposes. The paper will briefly introduce three global approaches to disaster-risk identification and will juxtapose them with one local approach in order to examine the differences concerning the functions and the purpose of the assessment as well as their impact for policy development. In contrast to an earlier comparative analysis of the three global disaster-risk indicator programmes by Mark Pelling in 2004, which focused primarily on the methodologies used, this paper places more emphasis on aspects of applicability and policy implications and outlines challenges and limitations of the different approaches. Since the assessment and mapping of human vulnerability is less developed than hazard assessment work [Pelling M., 2004. Visions of Risk: A Review of International Indicators of Disaster Risk and its Management. UNDP—Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BRCP), Geneva], this paper focuses in greater depth on how the approaches capture vulnerability. Conclusions will be formulated on how to further enhance vulnerability identification, particularly at the sub-national level.

Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework

The paper deals with the development of a general as well as integrative and holistic framework to systematize and assess vulnerability, risk and adaptation. The framework is a thinking tool meant as a heuristic that outlines key factors and different dimensions that need to be addressed when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural hazards and climate change. The approach underlines that the key factors of such a common framework are related to the exposure of a society or system to a hazard or stressor, the susceptibility of the system or community exposed, and its resilience and adaptive capacity. Additionally, it underlines the necessity to consider key factors and multiple thematic dimensions when assessing vulnerability in the context of natural and socio-natural hazards. In this regard, it shows key linkages between the different concepts used within the disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) research. Further, it helps to illustrate the strong relationships between different concepts used in DRM and CCA. The framework is also a tool for communicating complexity and stresses the need for societal change in order to reduce risk and to promote adaptation. With regard to this, the policy relevance of the framework and first results of its application are outlined. Overall, the framework presented enhances the discussion on how to frame and link vulnerability, disaster risk, risk management and adaptation concepts.

Measuring revealed and emergent vulnerabilities of coastal communities to tsunami in Sri Lanka

This paper presents the important findings of a study undertaken in two selected tsunami-affected coastal cities in Sri Lanka (Batticaloa and Galle) to measure the revealed and emergent vulnerability of coastal communities. International risk studies have failed to demonstrate the high vulnerability of coastal communities to tsunami in Sri Lanka. Therefore, indirect assessment tools to measure pre-event vulnerability have to be complemented by assessment tools that analyse revealed and emergent vulnerability in looking at the aftermath and impact patterns of a real scenario, as well as in examining the dynamics of disaster recovery in which different vulnerabilities can be identified. The paper first presents a conceptual framework for capturing vulnerability within a process-oriented approach linked to sustainable development. Next, it highlights selected indicators and methods to measure revealed and emergent vulnerability at the local level using the examples of Batticaloa and Galle. Finally, it discusses the usefulness and application of vulnerability indicators within the framework of reconstruction.

Enhancing the Relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.

Scenarios for vulnerability: opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk

Most scientific assessments for climate change adaptation and risk reduction are based on scenarios for climatic change. Scenarios for socio-economic development, particularly in terms of vulnerability and adaptive capacity, are largely lacking. This paper focuses on the utility of socio-economic scenarios for vulnerability, risk and adaptation research. The paper introduces the goals and functions of scenarios in general and reflects on the current global debate around shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). It examines the options and constraints of scenario methods for risk and vulnerability assessments in the context of climate change and natural hazards. Two case studies are used to contrast the opportunities and current constraints in scenario methods at different scales: the global WorldRiskIndex, based on quantitative data and indicators; and a local participatory scenario development process in Jakarta, showing a qualitative approach. The juxtaposition of a quantitative approach with global data and a qualitative-participatory local approach provides new insights on how different methods and scenario techniques can be applied in vulnerability and risk research.

Risk reduction at the “ Last - Mile ”: an attempt to turn science into action by the example of Padang, Indonesia

More than ever before, the last decade revealed the immense vulnerability of the world’s cities to natural hazards. Neither the tsunami in the Indian Ocean in 2004, the hurricane Katrina in 2005, the cyclone Nargis in 2008 nor the earthquakes in Sichuan in 2008 or in Haiti 2010 found the people, the city administrations or the national or international organizations well prepared in the advent of anticipated but to a large extent disregarded natural disasters. It is evident that the lack of tailor-made disaster management plans and standard operational procedures are often the crucial point in proper risk reduction approaches. This study presents an approach to transfer knowledge of an extensive multidisciplinary scientific study on risk identification into recommendations for risk reduction strategies. The study has been conducted by means of a combination of experts from different scientific communities coming from civil and coastal engineering, remote sensing, social sciences, evacuation modelling and capacity development. The paper presents the results of this research approach and interweaves key findings with recent experiences from an eyewitness on a previous hazard event. Thus, necessary tsunami hazard and vulnerability information as well as valuable insights into preparedness activities have been derived for initiating updated infrastructural designs and practical recommendations for emergency management as well as strategic spatial planning activities at the local scale. The approach was applied in the context of tsunami early warning and evacuation planning in the coastal city of Padang, Western Sumatra, Republic of Indonesia.

The World Risk Index – An Approach to Assess Risk and Vulnerability on a Global Scale

The demand for information and understanding on natural hazard related risk on a global scale has grown in recent years. Such information is crucial for stakeholders who are working in the field of disaster risk reduction, spatial planning and (re-)insurance. This article provides a new approach to assess risk and vulnerability towards natural hazards on country scale and allows the comparison of countries at global scale. The concept of the WorldRiskIndex focuses on the understanding of risk which is defined as the interaction of physical hazards and the vulnerability of exposed elements. The exposure to natural hazards was assessed by using five indicators that describe the expsoure of people towards earthquakes, cyclones, floods, droughts and sea level rise. Whereas vulnerability consists of susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity was calculated on the basis of 23 indicators which comprise social, economic and environmental conditions of a society. The method and the results of the WorldRiskIndex were validated by using statistical analysis such as reliability, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The results of the WorldRiskIndex were mapped and classified by means of a GIS system to show different patterns of exposure, vulnerability and risk on global scale. The global perspective of risk clearly shows that the vulnerability of a society or a country is not the same as exposure to natural hazards.

Boost resilience of small and mid-sized cities

Smaller settlements are growing faster than megacities — and they need more protection from extreme events, write Joern Birkmann and colleagues.

Anpassungsstrategien der Raumentwicklung an den Klimawandel: "Climate Proofing" - Konturen eines neuen Instruments

KurzfassungDer Klimawandel stellt neue Herausforderungen an die räumliche Planung, Pläne, Programme und Raumentwicklungsaktivitäten. Wie aber lassen sich die Folgen des Klimawandels und die notwendigen Anpassungsstrategien abschätzen und bereits heute in Programme und Pläne integrieren? Ein Schlagwort bzw. Konzept in der heutigen Diskussion ist „Climate Proofing”, welches die Zielsetzung verfolgt, Pläne und Programme an den Anforderungen auszurichten, die sich aus dem Klimawandel ergeben. Was aber bedeutet Climate Proofing genau? Neben einer Analyse der bisherigen Konzepte unter dem Stichwort Anpassung und Climate Proofing wird der Beitrag auch einen konzeptionellen Rahmen präsentieren, der aufzeigt, wie man zielgerichtet Climate Proofing entwickeln sollte. Dabei werden auch wesentliche Unterschiede zu bisherigen Verträglichkeitsprüfungen (z. B. UVP/SUP) erläutert. Insgesamt wird der Frage nachgegangen, welche inhaltlichen und konzeptionellen Eckpunkte und Konturen ein „Climate Proofing” für die Anpassung der Raumentwicklung an den Klimawandel aufweisen sollte.AbstractClimate change means new challenges for spatial planning, plans and programmes and spatial development activities as well. How can climate change impacts and adaptation strategies be assessed and integrated into plans and programmes already today? A buzzword that appears in the latest discussions and concepts is the idea of “climate proofing” that aims at adapting plans and programmes to the future impacts of a changing climate. However, what does “climate proofing” exactly mean? Apart from an analysis of existing concepts for adaptation and climate proofing this article presents a conceptual framework on how the idea of climate proofing can be specifically developed and how it differs from existing impact assessments (e.g. EIA/SEA). The overall question is which contents and conceptual key points shall be featured by a climate proofing approach for the adaptation of spatial development to climate change.