Johan Dahlin

Particle Metropolis---Hastings using gradient and Hessian information

Particle Metropolis–Hastings (PMH) allows for Bayesian parameter inference in nonlinear state space models by combining Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and particle filtering. The latter is used to estimate the intractable likelihood. In its original formulation, PMH makes use of a marginal MCMC proposal for the parameters, typically a Gaussian random walk. However, this can lead to a poor exploration of the parameter space and an inefficient use of the generated particles. We propose a number of alternative versions of PMH that incorporate gradient and Hessian information about the posterior into the proposal. This information is more or less obtained as a byproduct of the likelihood estimation. Indeed, we show how to estimate the required information using a fixed-lag particle smoother, with a computational cost growing linearly in the number of particles. We conclude that the proposed methods can: (i) decrease the length of the burn-in phase, (ii) increase the mixing of the Markov chain at the stationary phase, and (iii) make the proposal distribution scale invariant which simplifies tuning.

Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for System Identification

One of the key challenges in identifying nonlinear and possibly non-Gaussian state space models (SSMs) is the intractability of estimating the system state. Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, such as the particle filter (introduced more than two decades ago), provide numerical solutions to the nonlinear state estimation problems arising in SSMs. When combined with additional identification techniques, these algorithms provide solid solutions to the nonlinear system identification problem. We describe two general strategies for creating such combinations and discuss why SMC is a natural tool for implementing these strategies.

Particle metropolis hastings using Langevin dynamics

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) samplers allow for routine inference of parameters and states in challenging nonlinear problems. A common choice for the parameter proposal is a simple random walk sampler, which can scale poorly with the number of parameters. In this paper, we propose to use log-likelihood gradients, i.e. the score, in the construction of the proposal, akin to the Langevin Monte Carlo method, but adapted to the PMCMC framework. This can be thought of as a way to guide a random walk proposal by using drift terms that are proportional to the score function. The method is successfully applied to a stochastic volatility model and the drift term exhibits intuitive behaviour.

Combining Entity Matching Techniques for Detecting Extremist Behavior on Discussion Boards

Many extremist groups and terrorists use the Web for various purposes such as exchanging and reinforcing their beliefs, making monitoring and analysis of discussion boards an important task for intelligence analysts in order to detect individuals that might pose a threat towards society. In this work we focus on how to automatically analyze discussion boards in an effective manner. More specifically, we propose a method for fusing several alias (entity) matching techniques that can be used to identify authors with multiple aliases. This is one part of a larger system, where the aim is to provide the analyst with a list of potential extremist worth investigating further.

Second-Order Particle MCMC for Bayesian Parameter Inference

We propose an improved proposal distribution in the Particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm for Bayesian parameter inference in nonlinear state space models. This proposal incorporates second-order information about the parameter posterior distribution, which can be extracted from the particle filter already used within the PMH algorithm. The added information makes the proposal scale-invariant, simpler to tune and can possibly also shorten the burn-in phase. The proposed algorithm has a computational cost which is proportional to the number of particles, i.e. the same as the original marginal PMH algorithm. Finally, we provide two numerical examples that illustrates some of the possible benefits of adding the second-order information.

Particle filter-based Gaussian process optimisation for parameter inference

Abstract We propose a novel method for maximum-likelihood-based parameter inference in nonlinear and/or non-Gaussian state space models. The method is an iterative procedure with three steps. At each iteration a particle filter is used to estimate the value of the log-likelihood function at the current parameter iterate. Using these log-likelihood estimates, a surrogate objective function is created by utilizing a Gaussian process model. Finally, we use a heuristic procedure to obtain a revised parameter iterate, providing an automatic trade-off between exploration and exploitation of the surrogate model. The method is profiled on two state space models with good performance both considering accuracy and computational cost.

Detecting and positioning overtaking vehicles using 1D optical flow

We are concerned with the problem of detecting an overtaking vehicle using a single camera mounted behind the ego-vehicle windscreen. The proposed solution makes use of 1D optical flow evaluated along lines parallel to the motion of the overtaking vehicles. The 1D optical flow is computed by tracking features along these lines. Based on these features, the position of the overtaking vehicle can also be estimated. The proposed solution has been implemented and tested in real time with promising results. The video data was recorded during test drives in normal traffic conditions in Sweden and Germany.

Hierarchical Bayesian ARX models for robust inference

Abstract Gaussian innovations are the typical choice in most ARX models but using other distributions such as the Students t could be useful. We demonstrate that this choice of distribution for the innovations provides an increased robustness to data anomalies, such as outliers and missing observations. We consider these models in a Bayesian setting and perform inference using numerical procedures based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. These models include automatic order determination by two alternative methods, based on a parametric model order and a sparseness prior, respectively. The methods and the advantage of our choice of innovations are illustrated in three numerical studies using both simulated data and real EEG data.

A graph/particle-based method for experiment design in nonlinear systems

Abstract We propose an extended method for experiment design in nonlinear state space models. The proposed input design technique optimizes a scalar cost function of the information matrix, by computing the optimal stationary probability mass function (pmf) from which an input sequence is sampled. The feasible set of the stationary pmf is a polytope, allowing it to be expressed as a convex combination of its extreme points. The extreme points in the feasible set of pmfs can be computed using graph theory. Therefore, the final information matrix can be approximated as a convex combination of the information matrices associated with each extreme point. For nonlinear systems, the information matrices for each extreme point can be computed by using particle methods. Numerical examples show that the proposed technique can be successfully employed for experiment design in nonlinear systems.

Quasi-Newton particle Metropolis-Hastings*

Particle Metropolis-Hastings enables Bayesian parameter inference in general nonlinear state space models (SSMs). However, in many implementations a random walk proposal is used and this can result ...