Johan De Meester

Cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality among patients starting dialysis

CONTEXT Cardiovascular mortality is considered the main cause of death in patients receiving dialysis and is 10 to 20 times higher in such patients than in the general population. OBJECTIVE To evaluate if high overall mortality in patients starting dialysis is a consequence of increased cardiovascular mortality risk only or whether noncardiovascular mortality is equally increased. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS Using data from between January 1, 1994, and January 1, 2007, age-stratified mortality in a European cohort of adults starting dialysis and receiving follow-up for a mean of 1.8 (SD, 1.1) years (European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association [ERA-EDTA] Registry [N = 123,407]) was compared with the European general population (Eurostat). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Cause of death was recorded by ERA-EDTA codes in patients and matching International Statistical Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes in the general population. Standardized cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality rates, their ratio, difference, and relative excess of cardiovascular over noncardiovascular mortality were calculated. RESULTS Overall all-cause mortality rates in patients and the general population were 192 per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI], 190-193) and 12.055 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 12.05-12.06), respectively. Cause of death was known for 90% of the patients and 99% of the general population. In patients, 16,654 deaths (39%) were cardiovascular and 21,654 (51%) were noncardiovascular. In the general population, 7,041,747 deaths (40%) were cardiovascular and 10,183,322 (58%) were noncardiovascular. Cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality rates in patients were respectively 38.1 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 37.2-39.0) and 50.1 per 1000 person-years (95% CI, 48.9-51.2) higher than in the general population. On a relative scale, standardized cardiovascular and noncardiovascular mortality were respectively 8.8 (95% CI, 8.6-9.0) and 8.1 (95% CI, 7.9-8.3) times higher than in the general population. The ratio of these rates, ie, relative excess of cardiovascular over noncardiovascular mortality in patients starting dialysis compared with the general population, was 1.09 (95% CI, 1.06-1.12). Relative excess in a sensitivity analysis in which unknown/missing causes of death were regarded either as noncardiovascular or cardiovascular varied between 0.90 (95% CI, 0.88-0.93) and 1.39 (95% CI, 1.35-1.43). CONCLUSION Patients starting dialysis have a generally increased risk of death that is not specifically caused by excess cardiovascular mortality.

Listing for lung transplantation: life expectancy and transplant effect, stratified by type of end-stage lung disease, the Eurotransplant experience

BACKGROUND Increased referral for lung transplantation, persistent shortage of donor lungs, and moderate transplant outcome call not only for adequate listing criteria, but also for an optimal allocation scheme. We used global cohort survival after listing and survival benefit from transplantation to study the effect of a lung allocation scheme, primarily driven by waiting time, on the different types of end-stage lung disease. METHODS We followed all adult patients consecutively listed for first, lung-only transplantation between 1990 and 1996 (n = 1,208) for at least 2 years, with an additional 2-year follow-up after transplantation (n = 744). We used the competing risk method, the Kaplan-Meier method, and a time-dependent non-proportional hazards model to analyze waiting-list outcome and global mortality after listing, post-transplant survival, and transplant effect, respectively. Each analysis was stratified for type of end-stage lung disease. RESULTS At 2 years, 57% of the total cohort had received lung transplants, whereas 25% had died on the waiting list. The 2-year survival post-transplant was 55%. The global mortality of the cohort, since listing, amounted to 46% at 2 years. Compared with continued waiting, patients experienced benefit from transplantation by Day 100, which lasted until the end of the 2-year analysis period. We noticed the highest global mortality rates for patients with pulmonary fibrosis and pulmonary hypertension (54% and 52%); emphysema patients had the lowest (38%). Patients with pulmonary fibrosis and cystic fibrosis had much earlier benefit from transplantation, 55 and 90 days, respectively. Transplantation also benefited emphysema patients by Day 260. CONCLUSIONS Lung transplantation conferred transplant benefit in a Western European cohort of adults, in particular for patients with pulmonary fibrosis and cystic fibrosis, but also for patients with emphysema. The global survival rate, reflecting the real life expectancy for a newly listed transplant candidate, is poor for patients with pulmonary fibrosis and pulmonary hypertension. Allocation algorithms that lessen the impact of waiting time and take into account the type of end-stage lung disease should be developed.

Effect of receiving a heart transplant: analysis of a national cohort entered on to a waiting list, stratified by heart failure severity

Abstract Objective: To determine whether there is a survival benefit associated with cardiac transplantation in Germany. Design: Prospective observational cohort study. Setting: All 889 adult patients listed for a first heart transplant in Germany in 1997. Main outcome measure: Mortality, stratified by heart failure severity. Results: Within 1 year after listing, patients with a predicted high risk had the highest global death rate (51% v 32% and 29% for medium and low risk patients respectively; P<0.0001), had the highest risk of dying on the waiting list (32% v 20% and 20%; P=0.0003), and were more likely to receive a transplant (48% v 45% and 41%; P=0.01). Differences between the risk groups in outcome after transplantation did not reach significance (P=0.2). Transplantation was not associated with a reduction in mortality risk for the total cohort, but it did provide a survival benefit for the high risk group. Conclusion: Cardiac transplantation in Germany is currently associated with a survival benefit only in patients with a predicted high risk of dying on the waiting list. Patients with a predicted low or medium risk have no reduction in mortality risk associated with transplantation; they should be managed with organ saving approaches rather than transplantation.

Renal replacement therapy for autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) in Europe: prevalence and survival-an analysis of data from the ERA-EDTA Registry.

BACKGROUND Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the fourth most common renal disease requiring renal replacement therapy (RRT). Still, there are few epidemiological data on the prevalence of, and survival on RRT for ADPKD. METHODS This study used data from the ERA-EDTA Registry on RRT prevalence and survival on RRT in 12 European countries with 208 million inhabitants. We studied four 5-year periods (1991-2010). Survival analysis was performed by the Kaplan-Meier method and by Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS From the first to the last study period, the prevalence of RRT for ADPKD increased from 56.8 to 91.1 per million population (pmp). The percentage of prevalent RRT patients with ADPKD remained fairly stable at 9.8%. Two-year survival of ADPKD patients on RRT (adjusted for age, sex and country) increased significantly from 89.0 to 92.8%, and was higher than for non-ADPKD subjects. Improved survival was noted for all RRT modalities: haemodialysis [adjusted hazard ratio for mortality during the last versus first time period 0.75 (95% confidence interval 0.61-0.91), peritoneal dialysis 0.55 (0.38-0.80) and transplantation 0.52 (0.32-0.74)]. Cardiovascular mortality as a proportion of total mortality on RRT decreased more in ADPKD patients (from 53 to 29%), than in non-ADPKD patients (from 44 to 35%). Of note, the incidence rate of RRT for ADPKD remained relatively stable at 7.6 versus 8.3 pmp from the first to the last study period, which will be discussed in detail in a separate study. CONCLUSIONS In ADPKD patients on RRT, survival has improved markedly, especially due to a decrease in cardiovascular mortality. This has led to a considerable increase in the number of ADPKD patients being treated with RRT.

Incidence and outcome of patients starting renal replacement therapy for end-stage renal disease due to multiple myeloma or light-chain deposit disease: an ERA-EDTA Registry study

BACKGROUND Information on demographics and survival of patients starting renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) due to multiple myeloma (MM) or light-chain deposit disease (LCDD) is scarce. The aim of this study was to describe the incidence, characteristics, causes of death and survival rates of RRT for ESRD due to MM or LCDD in the ERA-EDTA Registry. METHODS Thirteen national registries providing data on patients who started RRT from 1986-2005 to the ERA-EDTA Registry participated. Incidence per million population (pmp) of RRT for ESRD due to MM or LCDD and other causes (non-MM) was observed overtime. Patient survival on RRT was examined, unadjusted and adjusted for age and gender. RESULTS Of the 159 637 patients on RRT, 2453 (1.54%) had MM or LCDD. The incidence of RRT for ESRD due to MM or LCDD, adjusted for age and gender, increased from 0.70 pmp in 1986-1990 to 2.52 pmp in 2001-2005. MM and LCDD patients compared to non-MM patients were older and a higher percentage was on haemodialysis at day 91 after the start of RRT. The most common causes of death in MM and LCDD patients were malignancy (36.1%), cardiovascular causes (17.2%) and infection (14.7%). MM and LCDD patients had a 2.77 (95% CI, 2.65-2.90) higher risk of death compared to non-MM patients. The unadjusted median survival on RRT was 0.91 years in MM and LCDD patients and 4.46 years in non-MM patients. During follow-up, 35 patients were transplanted and their mean survival was 9.6 years. CONCLUSION The incidence of RRT for ESRD due to MM or LCDD has increased over the past 20 years in Europe. The median patient survival on RRT for MM and LCDD patients was 0.91 years, compared to 4.46 years for non-MM patients. These results suggest that dialysis, and in selected cases even transplantation, should be offered to MM and LCDD patients.

The changing trends and outcomes in renal replacement therapy: data from the ERA-EDTA Registry

BACKGROUND This study examines the time trends in incidence, prevalence, patient and kidney allograft survival and causes of death (COD) in patients receiving renal replacement therapy (RRT) in Europe. METHODS Eighteen national or regional renal registries providing data to the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association Registry between 1998 and 2011 were included. Incidence and prevalence time trends between 2001 and 2011 were studied with Joinpoint and Poisson regression. Patient and kidney allograft survival and COD between 1998 and 2011 were analysed using Kaplan-Meier and competing risk methods and Cox regression. RESULTS From 2001 to 2008, the adjusted incidence of RRT rose by 1.1% (95% CI: 0.6, 1.7) annually to 131 per million population (pmp). During 2008-2011, the adjusted incidence fell by 2.2% (95% CI: -4.2, -0.2) annually to 125 pmp. This decline occurred predominantly in patients aged 45-64 years, 65-74 years and in the primary renal diseases diabetes mellitus type 1 and 2, renovascular disease and glomerulonephritis. Between 2001 and 2011, the overall adjusted prevalence increased from 724 to 1032 pmp (+3.3% annually, 95% CI: 2.8, 3.8). The adjusted 5-year patient survival on RRT improved between 1998-2002 and 2003-2007 [adjusted hazard ratio (HRa) 0.85, 95% CI: 0.84, 0.86]. Comparing these time periods, the risk of cardiovascular deaths fell by 25% (HRa 0.75, 95% CI: 0.74, 0.77). However the risk of malignant death rose by 9% (HRa 1.09, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.16) in patients ≥65 years. CONCLUSION This European study shows a declining RRT incidence, particularly in patients aged 45-64 years, 65-74 years and secondary to diabetic nephropathy. Encouragingly, the adjusted RRT patient survival continues to improve. The risk of cardiovascular death has decreased, though the risk of death from malignancy has increased in the older population.

New primary renal diagnosis codes for the ERA-EDTA

The European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry has produced a new set of primary renal diagnosis (PRD) codes that are intended for use by affiliated registries. It is designed specifically for use in renal centres and registries but is aligned with international coding standards supported by the WHO (International Classification of Diseases) and the International Health Terminology Standards Development Organization (SNOMED Clinical Terms). It is available as supplementary material to this paper and free on the internet for non-commercial, clinical, quality improvement and research use, and by agreement with the ERA-EDTA Registry for use by commercial organizations. Conversion between the old and the new PRD codes is possible. The new codes are very flexible and will be actively managed to keep them up-to-date and to ensure that renal medicine can remain at the forefront of the electronic revolution in medicine, epidemiology research and the use of decision support systems to improve the care of patients.

Pediatric renal transplantations in the Netherlands

Abstract: In the Netherlands, pediatric kidney transplantation programs are available in four centers. We retrospectively analyzed the results obtained over the past decade. Between 1985 and 1995, 231 patients (139 boys) received 269 transplants, including 61 repeat. The recipients were aged 1.9–21.8 yrs (mean 10.9), the donors 0.3–63.3 yrs (median 11.4, mean 19.7). Immunosuppression consisted of corticosteroids, cyclosporin A and azathioprine, in various combinations and dosages. The patient survival during follow‐up was 97%. The overall graft survival was 73% at 1 yr and 60% at 5 yrs after transplantation. Major causes of graft loss were acute rejection (21%), thrombosis (12%) and chronic rejection (28%). Acute rejection episodes were noted in 74% of all grafts. First acute rejection episodes had a moderate predictive value for graft loss (relative risk (RR), compared to rejection‐free grafts, 5.9). First rejection episodes occurring later than 3 months after transplantation were considerably more predictive (RR 18.3) than early ones. Grafts from living related donors (n = 35) yielded a superior 5‐yr graft survival (77%) and remained free of rejection more often than grafts from adult cadaveric donors(43% vs. 25%). The results of pre‐emptive transplants were excellent (n = 13, 5‐yr survival 100%). Repeat transplants had the same results as primary transplants. Recipients younger than 4 yrs showed a poor 5‐yr graft survival of 38% (n = 13). Single kidney grafts from donors younger than 4 yrs (n = 35) had a 5‐yr graft survival of 44%. In contrast, kidneys from these young donors did well if transplanted en bloc (n = 10, 5‐yr graft survival 89%). These overall results are in line with those of others. The results may be improved by expansion of immunosuppressive therapy in the first year and by thrombosis prophylaxis in high‐risk patient–donor combinations. Better results may be expected from more extensive use of living related donations, pre‐emptive transplantation and en bloc transplantation instead of single kidneys of young donors.

A prognostic model for predicting waiting-list mortality for a total national cohort of adult heart-transplant candidates.

Background. Current trends in medical management of advanced heart failure and transplant medicine and the enactment of a national transplant law forced a change toward allocation driven by disease severity. Objective. The aim of this study was to create a model for predicting waiting-list survival on the basis of simple clinical parameters. Methods. The clinical profiles of all patients registered for heart transplantation in Germany in 1997 (n=889) were used as a derivation set, and the total German 1998 cohort (n=897) was used as a validation set. The model was validated by the c statistic and by comparison of risk stratified mortality rates. The validated model was fine tuned by the appropriate calibration procedures. The data were first classified into physiologic subscores: an urgency score, a left ventricular heart failure score, a right ventricular heart failure score, and a systemic heart failure score. A stepwise modeling procedure was undertaken using these subscores as factors as well as the recipient’s age, ABO blood group, and body surface area. Results. The urgency and the left ventricular subscore were found to be significantly associated with waiting-list mortality. A summary index termed German Transplant Society (GTS) score was then calculated on the basis of seven parameters contained in these two subscores. The GTS score was able to predict waiting-list mortality risks for the 1998 cohort: 1-year mortality before transplantation was 71%, 34%, 11% for the high, medium, and low risk groups, respectively. Conclusion. The use of this continuous disease severity index may improve the selection of cardiac transplant candidates.

Effect of receiving a heart transplant: analysis of a national cohort entered on to a waiting list, stratified by heart failure severityCommentary: Time for a controlled trial?

Abstract Objective: To determine whether there is a survival benefit associated with cardiac transplantation in Germany. Design: Prospective observational cohort study. Setting: All 889 adult patients listed for a first heart transplant in Germany in 1997. Main outcome measure: Mortality, stratified by heart failure severity. Results: Within 1 year after listing, patients with a predicted high risk had the highest global death rate (51% v 32% and 29% for medium and low risk patients respectively; P<0.0001), had the highest risk of dying on the waiting list (32% v 20% and 20%; P=0.0003), and were more likely to receive a transplant (48% v 45% and 41%; P=0.01). Differences between the risk groups in outcome after transplantation did not reach significance (P=0.2). Transplantation was not associated with a reduction in mortality risk for the total cohort, but it did provide a survival benefit for the high risk group. Conclusion: Cardiac transplantation in Germany is currently associated with a survival benefit only in patients with a predicted high risk of dying on the waiting list. Patients with a predicted low or medium risk have no reduction in mortality risk associated with transplantation; they should be managed with organ saving approaches rather than transplantation.