Johan Gille

Towards a balanced view of Arctic shipping: estimating economic impacts of emissions from increased traffic on the Northern Sea Route

The extensive melting of Arctic sea ice driven by climate change provides opportunities for commercial shipping due to shorter travel distances of up to 40% between Asia and Europe. It has been estimated that around 5% of the world’s trade could be shipped through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in the Arctic alone under year-round and unhampered navigability, generating additional income for many European and East Asian countries. Our analysis shows that for Arctic sea ice conditions under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario and business restrictions facing shipping companies, NSR traffic will increase steadily from the mid-2030s onwards, although it will take over a century to reach the full capacity expected for ice-free conditions. However, in order to achieve a balanced view of Arctic shipping, it is important to include its detrimental environmental impacts, most notably emissions of short-lived pollutants such as black carbon, as well as CO2 and non-CO2 emissions associated with the additional economic growth enabled by NSR. The total climate feedback of NSR could contribute 0.05% (0.04%) to global mean temperature rise by 2100 under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), adding

Objectives of the NeXOS project in developing next generation ocean sensor systems for a more cost-efficient assessment of ocean waters and ecosystems, and fisheries management

2.15 trillion (

Mining in the European Arctic

0.44 trillion) to the NPV of total impacts of climate change over the period until 2200 for the SSP2 socio-economic scenario. The climatic losses offset 33% (24.7%) of the total economic gains from NSR under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), with the biggest losses set to occur in Africa and India. These findings call for policy instruments aimed at reducing emissions from Arctic shipping and providing compensation to the affected regions.

NeXOS development plans in ocean optics, acoustics and observing systems interoperability

The NeXOS project aims to develop new multifunctional sensor systems supporting a number of scientific, technical and societal objectives, ranging from more precise monitoring and modelling of the marine environment to an improved management of fisheries. Several sensors will be developed, based on optical and passive acoustics technologies, addressing key environmental descriptors identified by the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) for Good Environmental Status (GES). Two of the new sensors will also contribute to the European Union Common Fisheries Policy (CFP), with a focus on variables of interest to an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries (EAF). An objective is the improved cost-efficiency, from procurement to operations, via the implementation of several innovations, such as multiplatform integration, greater reliability through better antifouling management, greater sensor and data interoperability and the creation of market opportunities for European enterprises. Requirements will be further analysed for each new sensor system during the first phase of the project. Those will then be translated into engineering specifications, leading to the development phase. Sensors will then be tested, calibrated, integrated on several platform types, scientifically validated and demonstrated in the field. Translation to production and broad adoption are facilitated by participating industry. Overall, the paper presents an overview of the project objectives and plans for the next four years.

Marine sensors; the market, the trends and the value chain

The European Arctic has been recently experiencing an upsurge in mining activities. This is reflected in an on-going interest from the industry, regulators and the public. However, current and future prospects are highly sensitive to mineral price fluctuations. The EU is a major consumer and importer of Arctic raw materials. As the EU is concerned about the security of supply, it attempts to encourage domestic mineral extraction. Both Arctic communities and industry call for enhanced information flows, as well as improved and more inclusive decision-making frameworks. The EU should clearly articulate its interests related to mining in the European Arctic. The EU could further enhance its support for the collection and sharing of mining data and knowledge. The EU regulatory framework could better contribute to harmonising environmental, economic and social assessments, paying special attention to local social issues and indigenous rights. The EU, as a major global actor, can also influence international governance, standard-setting and co-operation to facilitate increased responsibility in mining activities, including through dialogue with mining industry.

Climate Change in the Arctic

A growing concern about the health of the world oceans resulting from multiple stressors as for instance effects of climate change and increasing offshore activities leads to the need of better observational tools and strategies. The objective of the NeXOS project is to serve those needs by developing new cost-effective, innovative and compact integrated multifunctional sensor systems for ocean optics, ocean passive acoustics, and an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries (EAF), which can be deployed from mobile and fixed ocean observing platforms, as well as to develop downstream services for the Global Ocean Observing System, Good Environmental Status of European marine waters and the Common Fisheries Policy.

Changes in arctic maritime transport

This market analysis is based on the work performed for the EU/FP7 project NeXOS that focuses on preparing the new generation of multi-functional maritime sensors. Naturally, such a venture cannot be successful without a prior thorough assessment of the market status and an in depth understanding of the user needs and the upcoming market trends. Therefore the market assessment we have performed has the following objectives: · to map the current and upcoming applications of maritime sensors in the various fields of implementation · to create a solid understanding of the structure of the market for maritime sensors; · to draw the sectors value chain indicating the activities that produce added value to maritime sensor activities; · to assess the competitiveness of the European maritime sensor industry; and · to identify the trends for the future development of the respective market segments as well as the barriers for further development of the market; The main focus of the study is to assess the market for optic sensors, passive acoustic sensors and the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries (EAF) sensor system. These maritime sensors have been identified to be applied or have potential application in a big variety of activities ranging from environmental monitoring and climate change research to seismic research and marine mammals. The value chain of the market has been drawn to depict the distinct activities that add value to maritime observation activities. The activities on the main branch of the value chain include sensor manufacturing, sensor developing and integrating into platforms as well as adapting the sensors to the needs of the maritime observations, operating them, analysing the collected data and exploiting the results of the observations. Currently there is no clear distinction of activities performed by each stakeholder group resulting in varying perceptions of the range of value-adding activities that different stakeholders focus on. However a set of main stakeholder groups with more or less distinct behaviour has been identified and includes: i) sensor manufacturers; ii) sensor developers; iii) service providers and iv) end-users of environmental monitoring services. In our research, we have identified the main and most promising market segments for maritime sensor activities and distinguished 3 perspectives of sensor use that actually drive the user requirements for sensors. These perspectives are: i) research, ii) industry and iii) research and development. In this study we dive into the growth expectations of the different market segments beyond the traditional, long-standing markets of Europe and N America looking into the developments on a global scale. As far as competitiveness of the sector is concerned, the European sensor market position in the world is assessed compared to the ongoing strong by the N. American sector and a SWOT analysis is performed to highlight the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats for the European sensor manufacturer industry. Further, the prospects of potential competitors rising in other geographical areas and claiming a part of the global market pie are assessed. Potential recommendations to strengthen the position of the European industry could include establishing common standards and developing appropriate business models that would help industrialisation of products or placing emphasis on SMEs taking into account the maturity level of each product market.