Johan Kuylenstierna

Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and Food Security

Why Wait? Tropospheric ozone can be dangerous to human health, can be harmful to vegetation, and is a major contributor to climate warming. Black carbon also has significant negative effects on health and air quality and causes warming of the atmosphere. Shindell et al. (p. 183) present results of an analysis of emissions, atmospheric processes, and impacts for each of these pollutants. Seven measures were identified that, if rapidly implemented, would significantly reduce global warming over the next 50 years, with the potential to prevent millions of deaths worldwide from outdoor air pollution. Furthermore, some crop yields could be improved by decreasing agricultural damage. Most of the measures thus appear to have economic benefits well above the cost of their implementation. Reducing anthropogenic emissions of methane and black carbon would have multiple climate and health benefits. Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 and beyond. Benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at

Controlling persistent organic pollutants-what next?

700 to

Global Air Quality and Health Co-benefits of Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change through Methane and Black Carbon Emission Controls

5000 per metric ton, which is well above typical marginal abatement costs (less than

Impacts of Air Pollutants on Vegetation in Developing Countries

250). The selected controls target different sources and influence climate on shorter time scales than those of carbon dioxide–reduction measures. Implementing both substantially reduces the risks of crossing the 2°C threshold.

Acidification in developing countries: ecosystem sensitivity and the critical load approach on a global scale.

Within the context of current international initiatives on the control of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), an overview is given of the scientific knowledge relating to POP sources, emissions, transport, fate and effects. At the regional scale, improvements in mass balance models for well-characterised POPs are resulting in an ability to estimate their environmental concentrations with sufficient accuracy to be of help for some regulatory purposes. The relevance of the parameters used to define POPs within these international initiatives is considered with an emphasis on mechanisms for adding new substances to the initial lists. A tiered approach is proposed for screening the large number of untested chemical substances according to their long-range transport potential, persistence and bioaccumulative potential prior to more detailed risk assessments. The importance of testing candidate POPs for chronic toxicity (i.e. for immunotoxicity, endocrine disruption and carcinogenicity) is emphasised as is a need for the further development of relevant SAR (structure activity relationship) models and in vitro and in vivo tests for these effects. Where there is a high level of uncertainty at the risk assessment stage, decision-makers may have to rely on expert judgement and weight-of-evidence, taking into account the precautionary principle and the views of relevant stake-holders. Close co-operation between the various international initiatives on POPs will be required to ensure that assessment criteria and procedures are as compatible as possible.

Energy use, emissions, and air pollution reduction strategies in Asia

Background: Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC), a component of fine particulate matter (PM ≤ 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter; PM2.5), are associated with premature mortality and they disrupt global and regional climate. Objectives: We examined the air quality and health benefits of 14 specific emission control measures targeting BC and methane, an ozone precursor, that were selected because of their potential to reduce the rate of climate change over the next 20–40 years. Methods: We simulated the impacts of mitigation measures on outdoor concentrations of PM2.5 and ozone using two composition-climate models, and calculated associated changes in premature PM2.5- and ozone-related deaths using epidemiologically derived concentration–response functions. Results: We estimated that, for PM2.5 and ozone, respectively, fully implementing these measures could reduce global population-weighted average surface concentrations by 23–34% and 7–17% and avoid 0.6–4.4 and 0.04–0.52 million annual premature deaths globally in 2030. More than 80% of the health benefits are estimated to occur in Asia. We estimated that BC mitigation measures would achieve approximately 98% of the deaths that would be avoided if all BC and methane mitigation measures were implemented, due to reduced BC and associated reductions of nonmethane ozone precursor and organic carbon emissions as well as stronger mortality relationships for PM2.5 relative to ozone. Although subject to large uncertainty, these estimates and conclusions are not strongly dependent on assumptions for the concentration–response function. Conclusions: In addition to climate benefits, our findings indicate that the methane and BC emission control measures would have substantial co-benefits for air quality and public health worldwide, potentially reversing trends of increasing air pollution concentrations and mortality in Africa and South, West, and Central Asia. These projected benefits are independent of carbon dioxide mitigation measures. Benefits of BC measures are underestimated because we did not account for benefits from reduced indoor exposures and because outdoor exposure estimates were limited by model spatial resolution.

Decarbonising product supply chains: design and development of an integrated evidence-based decision support system – the supply chain environmental analysis tool (SCEnAT)

The predicted increases in emissions of primary pollutants in many rapidly industrializing countries may have severe consequences for the health and productivity of forest trees and agricultural crops. This paper presents a review of air pollution impacts on vegetation in developing countries by summarising information describing the direct impacts to vegetation caused by a number of air pollutants (sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ozone (O3) and Suspended Particulate Matter (SPM)). This information has been collected by experts from a number of rapidly industrializing countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa and includes observations of visible injury in the field and the use of transect studies and controlled experimental investigations to ascribe damage to different pollutant concentrations. The ability to synthesise this information to define exposure-response relationships and subsequent air quality guidelines similar to those established in North America and Europe is assessed. In addition, the use of regional and global models describing pollution concentrations is discussed with reference to assessing the extent of adverse impacts and identifying regions likely to be most at risk from air pollution, both for the present day and in the future. The evidence summarised in the paper clearly shows that current pollutant concentrations experienced in many developing countries, particularly Asia, can result in severe damage to vegetation and that without appropriate control measures such damage is likely to worsen in the future as pollutant emissions increase.

Soil Sensitivity to Acidification in Asia: Status and Prospects

Abstract Acidification represents a growing threat to certain developing country ecosystems in tropical and subtropical climates. A methodology investigating the extent of acidification risks from sulfur emissions on a global scale is presented. Atmospheric transfer models have been used to calculate transfer and deposition of sulfur (using emissions for 1990 and a projection for 2050) and alkaline soil dust. A method to derive the relative sensitivity of terrestrial ecosystems is explained and preliminary critical load values are assigned. A range of values for critical loads and base cation deposition have been used to investigate uncertainty in maps depicting the excess of deposition above critical loads. These show an increasing risk of acidification in 2050 in extended regions of southern and eastern Asia, as well as parts of southern Africa, in comparison to 1990. Certain areas, especially in Asia, are shown at risk even when high values of critical load and base cation deposition are used.

Critical loads for nitrogen deposition and their exceedance at European scale

In contrast to Europe and North America, air pollution in Asia is increasing rapidly, resulting in both local air quality problems and higher acidic depositions. In 1989, an east-west group of scientists initiated a multi-institutional research project on Acid Rain and Emissions Reduction in Asia, funded for the past two years by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. Phase I, covering 23 countries of Asia, focussed on the development of PC-based software called the Regional Air Pollution INformation and Simulation Model (RAINS-ASIA). A 94-region Regional Energy Scenario Generator was developed to create alternative energy/emission scenarios through the year 2020. A long-range atmospheric transport model was developed to calculate dispersion and deposition of sulfur, based upon emissions from area and large point sources, on a one-degree grid of Asia. The resulting impacts of acidic deposition on a variety of vegetation types were analyzed using the critical loads approach to test different emissions management strategies, including both energy conservation measures and sulfur abatement technologies.

Preterm birth associated with maternal fine particulate matter exposure: A global regional and national assessment.

Based upon an increasing academic and business interest in greening the industrial supply chains, this paper establishes the need for a state-of-the-art decision support system (DSS) for carbon emissions accounting and management, mainly across the product supply chains by identifying methodological shortcomings in existing tools, and proposing a supply chain (SC) framework which provide businesses with a holistic understanding of their supply chains and ensuring partners within supply chain collaborative networks have a shared understanding of their emissions. It describes the design and development of a DSS now known as supply chain environmental analysis tool (SCEnAT) in detail, putting its unique and innovative features into a comparative perspective vis-à-vis existing tools and software of different types. The methodological framework used to design and develop SCEnAT integrates different individual techniques/methods of supply chain (SC) mapping, SC carbon accounting, SC interventions and SC interventions evaluation on a range of key performance indicators (KPIs). These individual methods have been used and applied innovatively to the challenge of designing SCEnAT within the desired framework. Finally, we demonstrate the application of SCEnAT, especially the advantage of using a robust carbon accounting methodology, to a SC case study. The SCEnAT framework pushes the theoretical boundary by addressing the problems of intra-organisational approach in decision making for lowering carbon along the supply chain; with an open innovation, cutting edge, hybridised framework that considers the supply chain as a whole in co-decision making for lowering carbon along the supply chain with the most robust methodology of hybrid life cycle analysis (LCA) that considers direct and indirect emissions and interventional performance evaluation for low carbon technology investment and business case building in order to adapt and mitigate climate change problems. This research has implications for future sustainability research in SC, decisions science, management theory, practice and policy.