Johan Lilliestam

Regional integration to support full renewable power deployment for Europe by 2050

The European Union is currently working on a achieving a target of 20% renewable energy by 2020, and has a policy framework in place that relies primarily on individual Member States implementing their own policy instruments for renewable energy support, within a larger context of a tradable quota system. For 2050 the target is likely to be more stringent, given the goal of reducing European carbon dioxide emissions by 80% by then. Preliminary analysis has suggested that achieving the 2020 target through renewable power deployment will be far less expensive and far more reliable if a regional approach is taken, in order to balance intermittent supply, and to take advantage of high renewable potentials off the European mainland. Analysis based on modeling is combined with the results of stakeholder interviews to highlight the key options and governance challenges associated with developing such a regional approach.

Bioenergy production and sustainable development: science base for policy-making remains limited

The possibility of using bioenergy as a climate change mitigation measure has sparked a discussion of whether and how bioenergy production contributes to sustainable development. We undertook a systematic review of the scientific literature to illuminate this relationship and found a limited scientific basis for policymaking. Our results indicate that knowledge on the sustainable development impacts of bioenergy production is concentrated in a few well‐studied countries, focuses on environmental and economic impacts, and mostly relates to dedicated agricultural biomass plantations. The scope and methodological approaches in studies differ widely and only a small share of the studies sufficiently reports on context and/or baseline conditions, which makes it difficult to get a general understanding of the attribution of impacts. Nevertheless, we identified regional patterns of positive or negative impacts for all categories – environmental, economic, institutional, social and technological. In general, economic and technological impacts were more frequently reported as positive, while social and environmental impacts were more frequently reported as negative (with the exception of impacts on direct substitution of GHG emission from fossil fuel). More focused and transparent research is needed to validate these patterns and develop a strong science underpinning for establishing policies and governance agreements that prevent/mitigate negative and promote positive impacts from bioenergy production.

Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to climate change

This paper reviews the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight—thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP)—and identify critical climate vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in mean conditions and extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabilities severe enough to halt development of any of the technologies mentioned, although we do find a potential value in exploring options for making PV cells more heat-resilient and for improving the design of cooling systems for CSP.

An alternative to a global climate deal may be unfolding before our eyes

The core objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations to non-dangerous levels quickly enough to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally, while not threatening food production or sustainable economic development. The approach embedded in the Kyoto Protocol, reflecting the concept of common but differentiated responsibilities, has been to start by setting binding emissions targets for industrialized countries, while using carbon markets to mobilize international finance for mitigation efforts in developing countries. The critical challenges for negotiators since then, however, have been in agreeing when the time is right to move towards binding emissions targets for developing countries and what level of financial assistance from developed countries is appropriate and politically feasible, given the well-founded perception that such targets, if sufficiently stringent to limit climate change and unaccompanied by strong financial assistance, could in fact hinder many countries. immediate economic development.

Understanding the absence of renewable electricity imports to the European Union

Purpose This paper aims to analyse reasons for the absence of renewable electricity (RE) imports to the European Union, for which the authors develop a multi-level heuristic. Design/methodology/approach The heuristic covers three sequential acceptance levels: political attractiveness (macro-level), the “business case” (micro-level) and civil society perspectives (public discourse level). Findings Numerous factors on all three levels determine the success/demise of renewables trade. So far, trade has failed on the macro-level, because European policymakers perceive that targets can be achieved domestically with significant co-benefits and because exporter countries have rapidly increasing electricity demand, limiting the realisable exports. As policymakers deemed it unattractive, they have not implemented policy-supported business cases. Public opposition against trade has not been an issue as no concrete plans or projects have been proposed. Research limitations/implications The authors show that the factors determining whether a RE programme is successful are plentiful and extend far beyond potential cost savings. This suggests that future research and the energy policy debate should better account for how cost savings are weighed against other policy aims and explicitly include the perspectives of investors and the public. Originality/value This paper adds the first holistic analysis of success/failure factors for RE trade to Europe. The three-level, sequential framework is new to energy policy analysis.

Fostering interdependence to minimise political risks in a European-North African renewable electricity supergrid

Abstract The option of decarbonisation of the European power sector with the help of significant imports of renewable electricity from North Africa via a trans-continental electricity Supergrid is increasingly gaining attention. In this paper, we investigate the geopolitical risks to European energy security in such a future, and discuss cornerstones for possible policy strategies to reduce these risks. The strategies are rooted in the interdependence between exporter and importer. We come to the conclusion that fostering and deepening, as opposed to reducing, the dependence of both sides on each other may be a valuable and powerful way to reduce the geopolitical risks of renewable electricity trade between Europe and North Africa.

Sharing the gains from EU--Western Balkan renewable electricity cooperation

The EU directive on renewable energy sources enables EU Member States to import renewable electricity from non-EU countries and count these imports towards their renewable energy targets. This article investigates whether such cooperation can be beneficial for selected Western Balkan countries and help them to increase their domestic renewable electricity supply: could wind power exports to the EU from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Albania and the Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia enable additional investments in domestic generation, without ‘selling out’ the exporter countries’ best generation sites? Or would exports rather conflict with the Western Balkans countries’ domestic efforts to reach their renewable energy targets and increase the domestic electricity supply? For this, a model was developed in Visual Basic to optimize, from the exporters’ perspective, the optimal export level to trigger investments but maximize the wind power supply for domestic use. The analysis takes into account the wind potential, support and price levels in the EU and Western Balkans, investor requirements and financing conditions in the investigated countries. The article shows that cooperation offers a way both for EU Member States and some Western Balkan countries to expand renewable electricity supply and reach their renewable energy targets in a cost-effective way. Partial exports of wind power would allow Serbia, Albania and the FYR of Macedonia to reach their 2020 wind targets. This would not be possible under their existing support schemes or electricity prices. The results indicate that Bosnia and Herzegovina lacks cost-efficient potentials and cannot achieve its wind target in the base case, with or without exports. Climate policy relevance The results show that wind power cooperation between the EU and Western Balkan countries may simultaneously increase the renewable electricity generation available for the domestic markets in the host countries and help EU Member States to achieve their renewable energy and decarbonization targets. Hence, wind power exports are a way for both the EU and the Western Balkans to provide more carbon-neutral electricity in a cost-effective manner and thus support the achievement of renewable energy and climate targets.