Johan Rootzén

Prospects for CO2 capture in European industry

Purpose – The aim of this study is to assess the role of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies in the reduction of CO2 emissions from European industries. Design/methodology/approach – A database covering all industrial installations included in the EU ETS has been created. Potential capture sources have been identified and the potential for CO2 capture has been estimated based on branch- and plant-specific conditions. Emphasis is placed here on three branches of industry with promising prospects for CCS: mineral oil refineries, iron and steel, and cement manufacturers. Findings – A relatively small number (~270) of large installations (>500,000?tCO2/year) dominates emissions from the three branches investigated in this study. Together these installations emit 432?MtCO2/year, 8 percent of EUs total greenhouse gas emissions. If the full potential of emerging CO2 capture technologies was realized, some 270-330?MtCO2 emissions could be avoided annually. Further, several regions have been singled out as particularly suitable to facilitate integrated CO2 transport networks. The most promising prospects for an early deployment of CCS are found in the regions bordering the North Sea. Research limitations/implications – Replacement/retrofitting of the existing plant stock will involve large investments and deployment will take time. It is thus important to consider how the current industry structure influences the potential to reduce CO2 in the short- medium and long term. It is concluded that the age structure of the existing industry plant stock and its implications for the timing and deployment rate of CO2 capture and other mitigation measures are important and should therefore be further investigated. Practical implications – CCS has been recognized as a key option for reducing CO2 emissions within the EU. This assessment shows that considerable emission reductions could be achieved by targeting large point sources in some of the most emission-intensive industries. Yet, a number of challenges need to be resolved in all parts of the CCS chain. Efforts need to be intensified from all stakeholders to gain more experience with the technological, economical and social aspects of CCS. Originality/value – This study provides a first estimate of the potential role for CO2 capture technologies in lowering CO2 emissions from European heavy industry. By considering wider system aspects as well as plant-specific conditions the assessment made in this study gives a realistic overview of the prospects and practical limitations of CCS in EU industry.

Managing the costs of CO2 abatement in the cement industry

This article investigates how the costs associated with deep reductions in CO2 emissions from the cement industry will influence the costs across the entire value chain from cement production to the eventual end-use, in this case a residential building. The work is motivated by the substantial difference between the pricing of CO2 emissions and the costs of mitigation at the production sites of energy-intensive industries, such as cement manufacture. By examining how CO2 trading and investments in low-carbon kiln systems affect costs and prices further up the supply chain of cement our analysis provides new perspectives on the costs of industry abatement of CO2 and on the question of who could or should pay the price of such abatement. The analysis reveals that the cost impacts decrease substantially at each transformation stage, from limestone to final end-uses. The increase in total production costs for the residential building used as the case study in this work is limited to 1%, even in the cases where the cement price is assumed to be almost doubled. Policy relevance With the price of emission allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) currently far below the levels required to unlock investments in low-CO2 production processes in carbon-intensive industry (i.e. petroleum refining, iron and steel production and cement manufacturing), this article seeks to pave the way for a discussion on complementary policy options. The results from this study, using the supply of cement and concrete to a residential building as a case study, suggest that because cement and concrete typically account for a limited proportion of the total cost of most construction and civil engineering projects, a policy scheme designed to allocate more of the costs of CO2 abatement to the end-users (of cement) would neither (significantly) alter the cost structure nor (dramatically) increase overall project costs.

The threat to climate change mitigation posed by the abundance of fossil fuels

ABSTRACT This article analyses the trends in primary demand for fossil fuels and renewables, comparing regions with large and small domestic fossil fuel reserves. We focus on countries that hold 80% of global fossil fuel reserves and compare them with key countries that have meagre fossil fuel reserves. We show that those countries with large domestic fossil fuel reserves have experienced a large increase in primary energy demand from fossil fuels, but only a moderate or no increase in primary energy from renewables, and in particular from non-hydro renewable energy sources (NHRES), which are assumed to represent the cornerstone of the future transformation of the global energy system. This implies a tremendous threat to climate change mitigation, with only two principal mitigation options for fossil-fuel-rich economies if there is to be compliance with the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement: (1) leave the fossil fuels in the ground; and (2) apply carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Combinations of these two options to exploit their respective possibilities synergistically will require strong initiatives and incentives to transform a certain amount of the domestic fossil fuel reserves (including the associated infrastructure) into stranded assets and to create an extensive CCS infrastructure. Our conclusion is that immediate and disruptive changes to the use of fossil fuels and investments in non-carbon-emitting technologies are required if global warming is to be limited to well below 2°C. Collective actions along value chains in business to divert from fossil fuels may be a feasible strategy. Key policy insights The main obstacle to compliance with any reasonable warming target is the abundance of fossil fuels, which has maintained and increased momentum towards new fossil-fuelled processes. So far, there has been no increase in the share of NHRES in total global primary energy demand, with a clear decline in the NHRES share in India and China. There is an immediate need for the global community to develop fossil fuel strategies and policies. Policies must account for the global trade flow of products that typically occurs from the newly industrialized fossil fuel-rich countries to the developed countries.