Johanna Wandel

An Anatomy of Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability

Adaptation to climate variability and change is important both for impact assessment (to estimate adaptations which are likely to occur) and for policy development (to advise on or prescribe adaptations). This paper proposes an anatomy of adaptation to systematically specify and differentiate adaptations, based upon three questions: (i) adapt to what? (ii) who or what adapts? and (iii) how does adaptation occur? Climatic stimuli include changes in long-term mean conditions and variability about means, both current and future, and including extremes. Adaptation depends fundamentally on the characteristics of the system of interest, including its sensitivities and vulnerabilities. The nature of adaptation processes and forms can be distinguished by numerous attributes including timing, purposefulness, and effect. The paper notes the contribution of conceptual and numerical models and empirical studies to the understanding of adaptation, and outlines approaches to the normative evaluation of adaptation measures and strategies.

Community vulnerability to climate change in the context of other exposure-sensitivities in Kugluktuk, Nunavut

Climate change in the Canadian north is, and will be, managed by communities that are already experiencing social, political, economic and other environmental changes. Hence, there is a need to understand vulnerability to climate change in the context of multiple exposure-sensitivities at the community level. This article responds to this perceived knowledge need based on a case study of the community of Kugluktuk in Nunavut, Canada. An established approach for vulnerability assessment is used to identify current climatic and non-climatic exposure-sensitivities along with their associated contemporary adaptation strategies. This assessment of current vulnerability is used as a basis to consider Kugluktuks possible vulnerability to climatic change in the future. Current climate-related exposure-sensitivities in Kugluktuk relate primarily to subsistence harvesting and community infrastructure. Thinner and less stable ice conditions and unpredictable weather patterns are making travel and harvesting more dangerous and some community infrastructure is sensitive to permafrost melt and extreme weather events (e.g., flash floods). The ability of individuals and households to adapt to these and other climatic exposure-sensitivities is influenced by non-climatic factors that condition adaptive capacity including substance abuse, the erosion of traditional knowledge and youth suicide. These and other non-climatic factors often underpin adaptive capacity to deal with and adapt to changing conditions and must be considered in an assessment of vulnerability. This research argues that Northern communities are challenged by multiple exposure-sensitivities—beyond just those posed by climate—and effective adaptation to climate change requires consideration if not resolution of socio-economic and other issues in communities.

Institutional Fit and Interplay in a Dryland Agricultural Social–Ecological System in Alberta, Canada

Canada’s Dry Belt has been subject to recurring climatic stimuli, political changes and macro-economic conditions throughout its history of human occupation. The various social–ecological systems that emerged as a result of these broad stimuli, changes and conditions have been associated with attendant societal and institutional reorganization. This paper uses the lens of institutional fit and interplay to examine three dominant systems – open range ranching, crop-based wheat farming, and mixed ranching – since Europeans first settled the area in the late 19th Century. We focus on one particular example institutional jurisdiction, the Special Areas of Alberta administrative unit, to illustrate how institutional fit and interplay both facilitate particular social-ecological systems and contribute to a shift in the dominant system.

Tipping Toward Transformation: Progress, Patterns and Potential for Climate Change Adaptation in the Global South

In response to observed and projected climate change impacts, major donors are funding an abundance of climate change research in the global South. The product of these funding schemes is often an abundance of cases with little attention paid to capturing the broader trends and patterns across cases. Furthermore, calls are increasingly being made for both adaptation and mitigation policies that are transformative: strategies that tackle the roots of vulnerability and high carbon development pathways to create a more fundamental shift towards sustainability. In this paper, we assess 54 cases of donor-funded adaptation research in the global South to paint a detailed picture of the types of adaptation options being proposed and implemented, their scope and the intended beneficiaries. We consider these data through the lens of transformation: to what extent do these cases illustrate adaptation actions that might push the social-ecological system over a tipping point towards a more desirable, sustainable state? Ultimately, we find that the adaptation options in these cases focus on educational or behavioral campaigns rather than deeper governance, legislative, or economic shifts. Similarly, the scale of action most often targets communities, rather than ecosystems, watershed, or regional/national scales. Even so, the emergence of resilience thinking in some projects, and the potential for a values shift triggered by these projects may sow the seeds of a longer-term transformation, if more attention is paid to synergies between development objectives and climate change actions.

Understanding climate change and resilience: assessing strengths and opportunities for adaptation in the Global South

Better integration of resilience and climate change adaptation can help building climate-resilient development. Yet, resilience and adaptation to climate change have evolved largely along parallel paths with little cross-fertilization. Conceptual vagueness around resilience makes it challenging to ascertain what elements of resilience thinking have the greatest potential to enhance climate change adaptation and contribute to broader sustainable development goals. This article distills nine principles from the resilience literature to build a framework to assess 224 climate change adaptation strategies proposed by researchers and practitioners in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Our analysis concludes that adaptation strategies in this data set emphasize initiatives that increase social and ecological diversity, strengthen learning processes, build functional redundancy, enhance connectivity between social and ecological elements, pay attention to the management of slow variables, and provide mechanisms for increasing participation and polycentric governance. At the same time, the adaptation options examined generally lacked a system’s perspective, suggesting that there is still important work ahead to move toward a climate-resilient development model.

Assessing Human Vulnerability to Climate Change from an Evolutionary Perspective

Human vulnerability to extreme events is not only a factor of exposure to exogenous hazards; it is also a factor of endogenous characteristics of the human system in question (be it a household, community or nation). Vulnerability assessments aim to identify the different elements that contribute to a human system’s vulnerability. This chapter presents behavioural and structural perspectives on vulnerability, and argues that an evolutionary perspective can offer important insights, particularly in regard to human systems’ adaptive capacity. Human systems have a capacity to adapt to local environmental and climatic conditions; however, that capacity is constrained by structural and historical factors. To illustrate, a comparison is made between the root causes of vulnerability in Haiti and Chile to their respective 2010 earthquakes. Different modelling and empirical methods that have been used to assess vulnerability are discussed. It is argued that the rich data necessary to identify the structural and historical root causes of vulnerability can only be obtained through qualitative research methods. The methodology used by the Global Islands’ Vulnerability Research Adaptation and Policy Development Project is offered as a model for a qualitative community-based vulnerability assessment.