Johannes Flemming

Toward a Monitoring and Forecasting System For Atmospheric Composition: The GEMS Project

The Global and Regional Earth System Monitoring Using Satellite and In Situ Data (GEMS) project is combining the manifold expertise in atmospheric composition research and numerical weather prediction of 32 European institutes to build a comprehensive monitoring and forecasting system for greenhouse gases, reactive gases, aerosol, and regional air quality. The project is funded by the European Commission as part of the Global Monitoring of Environment and Security (GMES) framework. GEMS has extended the data assimilation system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to include various tracers for which satellite observations exist. A chemical transport model has been coupled to this system to account for the atmospheric chemistry. The GEMS system provides lateral boundary conditions for a set of 10 regional air quality forecast models and global atmospheric fields for use in surface flux inversions for the greenhouse gases. Observations from both in situ and satellite sources are used as input, and the output products will serve users such as policy makers, environmental agencies, the science community, and providers of end-user services for air quality and health. This article provides an overview of GEMS and uses some recent results to illustrate the current status of the project. It is expected that GEMS will grow into a full operational service for the atmospheric component of GMES in the next decade. Part of this transition will be the merge with the Protocol Monitoring for the GMES Service Element: Atmosphere (PROMOTE) GMES project into the Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) project.

Fire carbon emissions over maritime southeast Asia in 2015 largest since 1997

In September and October 2015 widespread forest and peatland fires burned over large parts of maritime southeast Asia, most notably Indonesia, releasing large amounts of terrestrially-stored carbon into the atmosphere, primarily in the form of CO2, CO and CH4. With a mean emission rate of 11.3 Tg CO2 per day during Sept-Oct 2015, emissions from these fires exceeded the fossil fuel CO2 release rate of the European Union (EU28) (8.9 Tg CO2 per day). Although seasonal fires are a frequent occurrence in the human modified landscapes found in Indonesia, the extent of the 2015 fires was greatly inflated by an extended drought period associated with a strong El Niño. We estimate carbon emissions from the 2015 fires to be the largest seen in maritime southeast Asia since those associated with the record breaking El Niño of 1997. Compared to that event, a much better constrained regional total carbon emission estimate can be made for the 2015 fires through the use of present-day satellite observations of the fire’s radiative power output and atmospheric CO concentrations, processed using the modelling and assimilation framework of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) and combined with unique in situ smoke measurements made on Kalimantan.

Global reactive gases forecasts and reanalysis in the MACC project

The EU FP7 projects MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate, 2009–2011) prepared for the operational Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) atmospheric core service on greenhouse gases, reactive gases and aerosols which is envisaged to start in 2014. This paper describes the data assimilation and modelling system which has been implemented for global monitoring of reactive gases in the troposphere and stratosphere. The MACC reactive gases system uses a coupling software to integrate the Model for Ozone And Related Tracers, version 3 (MOZART-3) chemistry transport model with the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The focus is placed on the tropospheric simulations with this MACC-IFS-MOZ model. The MACC reanalysis (2003–2010) and the forecasts performed in near real time (NRT) benefit from the multi-sensor approach for data assimilation of total columns, tropospheric columns and vertically resolved observations of ozone, CO and NO2. Daily biomass burning emissions are integrated in real time using the global fire assimilation system (GFAS) that was developed within MACC. Other emissions are taken from a state-of-the-art global inventory that was developed across several EU projects. The MACC reanalysis and tracer forecasts are routinely evaluated with ground-based and airborne in-situ observations and independent satellite retrieval products. We present the system set-up for reactive gases, give an overview on the service and technical developments during the project, and indicate how MACC global reactive gases products could provide information on non-CO2 greenhouse gases.

Biomass burning influence on high-latitude tropospheric ozone and reactive nitrogen in summer 2008: a multi-model analysis based on POLMIP simulations

Abstract. We have evaluated tropospheric ozone enhancement in air dominated by biomass burning emissions at high latitudes (> 50° N) in July 2008, using 10 global chemical transport model simulations from the POLMIP multi-model comparison exercise. In model air masses dominated by fire emissions, ΔO3/ΔCO values ranged between 0.039 and 0.196 ppbv ppbv−1 (mean: 0.113 ppbv ppbv−1) in freshly fire-influenced air, and between 0.140 and 0.261 ppbv ppbv−1 (mean: 0.193 ppbv) in more aged fire-influenced air. These values are in broad agreement with the range of observational estimates from the literature. Model ΔPAN/ΔCO enhancement ratios show distinct groupings according to the meteorological data used to drive the models. ECMWF-forced models produce larger ΔPAN/ΔCO values (4.47 to 7.00 pptv ppbv−1) than GEOS5-forced models (1.87 to 3.28 pptv ppbv−1), which we show is likely linked to differences in efficiency of vertical transport during poleward export from mid-latitude source regions. Simulations of a large plume of biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions exported from towards the Arctic using a Lagrangian chemical transport model show that 4-day net ozone change in the plume is sensitive to differences in plume chemical composition and plume vertical position among the POLMIP models. In particular, Arctic ozone evolution in the plume is highly sensitive to initial concentrations of PAN, as well as oxygenated VOCs (acetone, acetaldehyde), due to their role in producing the peroxyacetyl radical PAN precursor. Vertical displacement is also important due to its effects on the stability of PAN, and subsequent effect on NOx abundance. In plumes where net ozone production is limited, we find that the lifetime of ozone in the plume is sensitive to hydrogen peroxide loading, due to the production of HOx from peroxide photolysis, and the key role of HO2 + O3 in controlling ozone loss. Overall, our results suggest that emissions from biomass burning lead to large-scale photochemical enhancement in high-latitude tropospheric ozone during summer.

Quantifying Emerging Local Anthropogenic Emissions in the Arctic Region: The ACCESS Aircraft Campaign Experiment

AbstractArctic sea ice has decreased dramatically in the past few decades and the Arctic is increasingly open to transit shipping and natural resource extraction. However, large knowledge gaps exist regarding composition and impacts of emissions associated with these activities. Arctic hydrocarbon extraction is currently under development owing to the large oil and gas reserves in the region. Transit shipping through the Arctic as an alternative to the traditional shipping routes is currently underway. These activities are expected to increase emissions of air pollutants and climate forcers (e.g., aerosols, ozone) in the Arctic troposphere significantly in the future. The authors present the first measurements of these activities off the coast of Norway taken in summer 2012 as part of the European Arctic Climate Change, Economy, and Society (ACCESS) project. The objectives include quantifying the impact that anthropogenic activities will have on regional air pollution and understanding the connections to ...

Global Real‐time Fire Emission Estimates Based on Space‐borne Fire Radiative Power Observations

We present the first real‐time system for the estimation of global biomass burning emissions from several different satellite‐based fire radiative power (FRP) observations. The FRP products from the MODIS and SEVIRI instruments on Aqua, Terra, and Meteosat‐9 are combined by averaging all pixels with fire detection or just the potential of fire detection on a global grid with ∼125 km resolution. The total observed area per grid cell is used as a proxy for the accuracy of the estimation. Thus the different observations can be merged consistently and the advantage the high temporal sampling frequency of the geostationary observation is maintained while almost global coverage is achieved with the polar orbiting platforms. The system is being tested and validation is ongoing. As a first trial application, daily pyrogenic carbon monoxide emissions are used in the European GEMS project to produce 3‐day forecasts of the carbon monoxide plumes emitted by biomass burning. Some potential improvements of the method a...

Coordinated Airborne Studies in the Tropics (CAST)

This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from the American Meteorological Society via http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00290.1

Impact of intercontinental pollution transport on North American ozone air pollution: an HTAP phase 2 multi-model study

The recent update on the US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) of the ground-level ozone (O3/ can benefit from a better understanding of its source contributions in different US regions during recent years. In the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution experiment phase 1 (HTAP1), various global models were used to determine the O3 source–receptor (SR) relationships among three continents in the Northern Hemisphere in 2001. In support of the HTAP phase 2 (HTAP2) experiment that studies more recent years and involves higher-resolution global models and regional models’ participation, we conduct a number of regional-scale Sulfur Transport and dEposition Model (STEM) air quality base and sensitivity simulations over North America during May–June 2010. STEM’s top and lateral chemical boundary conditions were downscaled from three global chemical transport models’ (i.e., GEOS-Chem, RAQMS, and ECMWF C-IFS) base and sensitivity simulations in which the East Asian (EAS) anthropogenic emissions were reduced by 20 %. The mean differences between STEM surface O3 sensitivities to the emission changes and its corresponding boundary condition model’s are smaller than those among its boundary condition models, in terms of the regional/period-mean (<10 %) and the spatial distributions. An additional STEM simulation was performed in which the boundary conditions were downscaled from a RAQMS (Realtime Air Quality Modeling System) simulation without EAS anthropogenic emissions. The scalability of O3 sensitivities to the size of the emission perturbation is spatially varying, and the full (i.e., based on a 100% emission reduction) source contribution obtained from linearly scaling the North American mean O3 sensitivities to a 20% reduction in the EAS anthropogenic emissions may be underestimated by at least 10 %. The three boundary condition models’ mean O3 sensitivities to the 20% EAS emission perturbations are ~8% (May–June 2010)/~11% (2010 annual) lower than those estimated by eight global models, and the multi-model ensemble estimates are higher than the HTAP1 reported 2001 conditions. GEOS-Chem sensitivities indicate that the EAS anthropogenic NOx emissions matter more than the other EAS O3 precursors to the North American O3, qualitatively consistent with previous adjoint sensitivity calculations. In addition to the analyses on large spatial–temporal scales relative to the HTAP1, we also show results on subcontinental and event scales that are more relevant to the US air quality management. The EAS pollution impacts are weaker during observed O3 exceedances than on all days in most US regions except over some high-terrain western US rural/remote areas. Satellite O3 (TES, JPL–IASI, and AIRS) and carbon monoxide (TES and AIRS) products, along with surface measurements and model calculations, show that during certain episodes stratospheric O3 intrusions and the transported EAS pollution influenced O3 in the western and the eastern US differently. Free-running (i.e., without chemical data assimilation) global models underpredicted the transported background O3 during these episodes, posing difficulties for STEM to accurately simulate the surface O3 and its source contribution. Although we effectively improved the modeled O3 by incorporating satellite O3 (OMI and MLS) and evaluated the quality of the HTAP2 emission inventory with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute–Ozone Monitoring Instrument (KNMI–OMI) nitrogen dioxide, using observations to evaluate and improve O3 source attribution still remains to be further explored.

An observationally constrained evaluation of the oxidative capacity in the tropical western Pacific troposphere

Hydroxyl radical (OH) is the main daytime oxidant in the troposphere and determines the atmospheric lifetimes of many compounds. We use aircraft measurements of O3, H2O, NO, and other species from the Convective Transport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) field campaign, which occurred in the tropical western Pacific (TWP) during January–February 2014, to constrain a photochemical box model and estimate concentrations of OH throughout the troposphere. We find that tropospheric column OH (OHCOL) inferred from CONTRAST observations is 12 to 40% higher than found in chemical transport models (CTMs), including CAM-chem-SD run with 2014 meteorology as well as eight models that participated in POLMIP (2008 meteorology). Part of this discrepancy is due to a clear-sky sampling bias that affects CONTRAST observations; accounting for this bias and also for a small difference in chemical mechanism results in our empirically based value of OHCOL being 0 to 20% larger than found within global models. While these global models simulate observed O3 reasonably well, they underestimate NOx (NO + NO2) by a factor of 2, resulting in OHCOL ~30% lower than box model simulations constrained by observed NO. Underestimations by CTMs of observed CH3CHO throughout the troposphere and of HCHO in the upper troposphere further contribute to differences between our constrained estimates of OH and those calculated by CTMs. Finally, our calculations do not support the prior suggestion of the existence of a tropospheric OH minimum in the TWP, because during January–February 2014 observed levels of O3 and NO were considerably larger than previously reported values in the TWP.

Impacts of different characterizations of large-scale background on simulated regional-scale ozone over the continental United States

This study analyzes simulated regional-scale ozone burdens both near the surface and aloft, estimates process contributions to these burdens, and calculates the sensitivity of the simulated regional-scale ozone burden to several key model inputs with a particular emphasis on boundary conditions derived from hemispheric or global-scale models. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations supporting this analysis were performed over the continental US for the year 2010 within the context of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP) activities. CMAQ process analysis (PA) results highlight the dominant role of horizontal and vertical advection on the ozone burden in the mid-to-upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Vertical mixing, including mixing by convective clouds, couples fluctuations in free-tropospheric ozone to ozone in lower layers. Hypothetical bounding scenarios were performed to quantify the effects of emissions, boundary conditions, and ozone dry deposition on the simulated ozone burden. Analysis of these simulations confirms that the characterization of ozone outside the regional-scale modeling domain can have a profound impact on simulated regional-scale ozone. This was further investigated by using data from four hemispheric or global modeling systems (Chemistry - Integrated Forecasting Model (C-IFS), CMAQ extended for hemispheric applications (H-CMAQ), the Goddard Earth Observing System model coupled to chemistry (GEOS-Chem), and AM3) to derive alternate boundary conditions for the regional-scale CMAQ simulations. The regional-scale CMAQ simulations using these four different boundary conditions showed that the largest ozone abundance in the upper layers was simulated when using boundary conditions from GEOS-Chem, followed by the simulations using C-IFS, AM3, and H-CMAQ boundary conditions, consistent with the analysis of the ozone fields from the global models along the CMAQ boundaries. Using boundary conditions from AM3 yielded higher springtime ozone columns burdens in the middle and lower troposphere compared to boundary conditions from the other models. For surface ozone, the differences between the AM3-driven CMAQ simulations and the CMAQ simulations driven by other large-scale models are especially pronounced during spring and winter where they can reach more than 10 ppb for seasonal mean ozone mixing ratios and as much as 15 ppb for domain-averaged daily maximum 8 h average ozone on individual days. In contrast, the differences between the C-IFS-, GEOS-Chem-, and H-CMAQ-driven regional-scale CMAQ simulations are typically smaller. Comparing simulated sur face ozone mixing ratios to observations and computing seasonal and regional model performance statistics revealed that boundary conditions can have a substantial impact on model performance. Further analysis showed that boundary conditions can affect model performance across the entire range of the observed distribution, although the impacts tend to be lower during summer and for the very highest observed percentiles. The results are discussed in the context of future model development and analysis opportunities.