Johannes Schäuble

Methods for forecasting the market penetration of electric drivetrains in the passenger car market

ABSTRACT Current car technologies will not solve upcoming challenges of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in road transport. Projections of the market penetration by alternative drive train technologies are controversial regarding both forecast market shares and applied scientific methods. Accepting this latter challenge, we provide a (so far missing) overview of methods applied in this field and give some recommendations for further work. Our focus is to classify the applied methods into a convenient pattern and to analyse models from the recent scientific literature which consider the electrification of light-duty vehicles. We differentiate the following bottom-up approaches: Econometric models with disaggregated data (such as discrete choice), and agent-based simulation models. The group of top-down models are subdivided into econometric models with aggregated data (e.g. vehicle stock data), system dynamics, as well as integrated assessment models with general equilibrium models. It becomes obvious that some methods have a stronger methodological background whereas others require comprehensive data sets or can be combined more flexibly with other methods. Even though there is no dominant method, we can identify a trend in the literature towards data-driven hybrid approaches, which considers micro and macro aspects influencing the market penetration of electric vehicles.

Impacts of Electricity Consumers’ Unit Commitment on Low Voltage Networks

Todays electricity consumer tend to become small businesses as they invest in their own decentralized electricity generation and stationary electricity storage as well as in information technology (IT) to connect and organize these new devices. Furthermore, the installed IT allows them at least technically to establish local markets. The variety of consumers and their characteristics implies numerous ways of how they optimize their individual unit commitment. This paper aims to analyze the impact of the individual consumers decisions on a future electricity demand and feed-in on low voltage network level. Therefore, in a first step the different unit commitment problems of the different small businesses have been modeled using linear programming (LP). In a second step these consumers are modeled as learning agents of a multi-agent system (MAS). The MAS comprises a local electricity market in which participants negotiate supply relationships. Finally, using scenarios with different input parameters the resulting impact is studied in detail. Amongst others, the simulations’ results show major changes in electricity demand and feed-in for scenarios with high market penetration of storages.

Cross-border Mobility for Electric Vehicles: Selected results from one of the first cross-border field tests in Europe

This book provides selected results from the accompanying research of the project CROME. The vision of the project was to create and test a safe, seamless, user-friendly and reliable mobility with electric vehicles between France and Germany as a prefiguration of a pan-European electric mobility system. Major aims were contributions to the European standardisation process of charging infrastructure for electric mobility and corresponding services, and to provide an early customer feedback.