Johannes Uiltje Stoelwinder

The magnitude of association between overweight and obesity and the risk of diabetes: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies.

The objectives of this meta-analysis were to examine the magnitude of the relative risk (RR) of developing type 2 diabetes for overweight and obese populations, compared to those with normal weight, and to determine causes of the variation in RR between various cohort studies. The magnitude of the RR was analyzed by combining 18 prospective cohort studies that matched defined criteria. The variance in RR between studies was explored. The overall RR of diabetes for obese persons compared to those with normal weight was 7.19, 95% CI: 5.74, 9.00 and for overweight was 2.99, 95% CI: 2.42, 3.72. The variation in RR among studies was explored and it was found that the effect of heterogeneity was highly related with sample size, method of assessment of body mass index (BMI) and method of ascertainment of type 2 diabetes. By combining only cohort studies with more than 400 cases of incident diabetes (>median), adjusted by at least three main confounding variables (age, family history of type 2 diabetes, physical activity), measured BMI, and diabetes determined by clinical diagnosis, the RR was 7.28, 95% CI: 6.47, 8.28 for obesity and 2.92, 95% CI: 2.57, 3.32 for overweight.

The number of years lived with obesity and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality

BACKGROUND The role of the duration of obesity as an independent risk factor for mortality has not been investigated. The aim of this study was to analyse the association between the duration of obesity and the risk of mortality. METHODS A total of 5036 participants (aged 28-62 years) of the Framingham Cohort Study were followed up every 2 years from 1948 for up to 48 years. The association between obesity duration and all-cause and cause-specific mortality was analysed using time-dependent Cox models adjusted for body mass index. The role of biological intermediates and chronic diseases was also explored. RESULTS The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for mortality increased as the number of years lived with obesity increased. For those who were obese for 1-4.9, 5-14.9, 15-24.9 and ≥ 25 years of the study follow-up period, adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.27-1.79], 1.94 (95% CI 1.71-2.20), 2.25 (95% CI 1.89-2.67) and 2.52 (95% CI 2.08-3.06), respectively, compared with those who were never obese. A dose-response relation between years of duration of obesity was also clear for all-cause, cardiovascular, cancer and other-cause mortality. For every additional 2 years of obesity, the HRs for all-cause, cardiovascular disease, cancer and other-cause mortality were 1.06 (95% CI 1.05-1.07), 1.07 (95% CI 1.05-1.08), 1.03 (95% CI 1.01-1.05) and 1.07 (95% CI 1.05-1.11), respectively. CONCLUSIONS The number of years lived with obesity is directly associated with the risk of mortality. This needs to be taken into account when estimating its burden on mortality.

Demand at the emergency department front door: 10-year trends in presentations.

Objectives: To measure the increase in volume and age‐specific rates of presentations to public hospital emergency departments (EDs), as well as any changes in ED length of stay (LOS); and to describe trends in ED utilisation.

Systematic review of trends in emergency department attendances: an Australian perspective

Emergency departments (EDs) in many developed countries are experiencing increasing pressure due to rising numbers of patient presentations and emergency admissions. Reported increases range up to 7% annually. Together with limited inpatient bed capacity, this contributes to prolonged lengths of stay in the ED; disrupting timely access to urgent care, posing a threat to patient safety. The aim of this review is to summarise the findings of studies that have investigated the extent of and the reasons for increasing emergency presentations. To do this, a systematic review and synthesis of published and unpublished reports describing trends and underlying drivers associated with the increase in ED presentations in developed countries was conducted. Most published studies provided evidence of increasing ED attendances within developed countries. A series of inter-related factors have been proposed to explain the increase in emergency demand. These include changes in demography and in the organisation and delivery of healthcare services, as well as improved health awareness and community expectations arising from health promotion campaigns. The factors associated with increasing ED presentations are complex and inter-related and include rising community expectations regarding access to emergency care in acute hospitals. A systematic investigation of the demographic, socioeconomic and health-related factors highlighted by this review is recommended. This would facilitate untangling the dynamics of the increase in emergency demand.

Quality and safety indicators in anesthesia: a systematic review.

Clinical indicators are increasingly developed and promoted by professional organizations, governmental agencies, and quality initiatives as measures of quality and performance. To clarify the number, characteristics, and validity of indicators available for anesthesia care, the authors performed a systematic review. They identified 108 anesthetic clinical indicators, of which 53 related also to surgical or postoperative ward care. Most were process (42%) or outcome (57%) measures assessing the safety and effectiveness of patient care. To identify possible quality issues, most clinical indicators were used as part of interhospital comparison or professional peer-review processes. For 60% of the clinical indicators identified, validity relied on expert opinion. The level of scientific evidence on which prescriptive indicators (“how things should be done”) were based was high (1a–1b) for 38% and low (4–5) for 62% of indicators. Additional efforts should be placed into the development and validation of anesthesia-specific quality indicators.

Increasing utilisation of emergency ambulances

BACKGROUND Increased ambulance utilisation is closely linked with Emergency Department (ED) attendances. Pressures on hospital systems are widely acknowledged with ED overcrowding reported regularly in the media and peer-reviewed literature. Strains on ambulance services are less well-documented or studied. AIMS To review the literature to determine the trends in utilisation of emergency ambulances throughout the developed world and to discuss the major underlying drivers perceived as contributing to this increase. METHOD A search of online databases, search engines, peer-reviewed journals and audit reports was undertaken. FINDINGS Ambulance utilisation has increased in many developed countries over the past 20 years. Annual growth rates throughout Australia and the United Kingdom are similar. Population ageing, changes in social support, accessibility and pricing, and increasing community health awareness have been proposed as associated factors. As the extent of their contribution has not yet been established these factors were reviewed. CONCLUSION The continued rise in utilisation of emergency ambulances is placing increasing demands on ambulance services and the wider health system, potentially compromising access, quality, safety and outcomes. A variety of factors may contribute to this increase and targeted strategies to reduce utilisation will require an accurate identification of the major drivers of demand.

The Duration of Obesity and the Risk of Type-2 Diabetes

OBJECTIVE The evidence for the association between obesity and the risk of type 2 diabetes has been derived mainly from the analysis of the degree of obesity. The role of the duration of obesity as an independent risk has not been fully explored. The objective of the present study was to investigate the association between the duration of obesity and the risk of type 2 diabetes. DESIGN Prospective cohort study. SETTING The Framingham Heart Study (FHS), follow-up from 1948 to 1998. SUBJECTS A total of 1256 FHS participants who were free from type 2 diabetes at baseline, but were obese on at least two consecutive of the studys twenty-four biennial examinations, were included. Type 2 diabetes status was collected throughout the 48 years of follow-up of the study. The relationship between duration of obesity and type 2 diabetes was analysed using time-dependent Cox models, adjusting for a number of covariates. RESULTS The unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for the risk of type 2 diabetes for men was 1.13 (95 % CI 1.09, 1.17) and for women was 1.12 (95 % CI 1.08, 1.16) per additional 2-year increase in the duration of obesity. Adjustment for sociodemographic variables, family history of diabetes, health behaviour and physical activity made little difference to these HR. For women the evidence of a dose-response relationship was less clear than for men, particularly for women with an older age at obesity onset. CONCLUSIONS The duration of obesity is a relevant risk factor for type 2 diabetes, independent of the degree of BMI.

Validity of Unplanned Admission to an Intensive Care Unit as a Measure of Patient Safety in Surgical Patients

Background:An unplanned admission to the intensive care unit within 24 h of a procedure (UIA) is a recommended clinical indicator in surgical patients. Often regarded as a surrogate marker of adverse events, it has potential as a direct measure of patient safety. Its true validity for such use is currently unknown. Methods:The authors validated UIA as an indicator of safety in surgical patients in a prospective cohort study of 44,130 patients admitted to their hospital. They assessed the association of UIA with intraoperative incidents and near misses, increased hospital length of stay, and 30-day mortality as three constructs of patient safety. Results:The authors identified 201 patients with a UIA; 104 (52.2%) had at least one incident or near miss. After adjusting for confounders, these incidents were significantly associated with UIA in all categories of surgical procedures analyzed; odds ratios were 12.21 (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.33–23.58), 4.06 (95% CI, 2.74–6.03), and 2.13 (95% CI, 1.02–4.42), respectively. The 30-day mortality for patients with UIA was 10.9%, compared with 1.1% in non-UIA patients. After risk adjustment, UIA was associated with excess mortality in several types of surgical procedures (odds ratio, 3.89; 95% CI, 2.14–7.04). The median length of stay was increased if UIA occurred: 16 days (interquartile range, 10–31) versus 2 days (interquartile range, 0.5–9) (P < 0.001). For patients with a UIA, the likelihood of discharge from hospital was significantly decreased in most surgical categories analyzed, with adjusted hazard ratios of 0.41 (95% CI, 0.23–0.77) to 0.58 (95% CI, 0.37–0.93). Conclusions:These findings provide strong support for the construct validity of UIA as a measure of patient safety.

A systematic review of outcomes following emergency transfer to hospital for residents of aged care facilities

BACKGROUND residential aged care facility (RACF) resident numbers are increasing. Residents are frequently frail with substantial co-morbidity, functional and cognitive impairment with high susceptibility to acute illness. Despite living in facilities staffed by health professionals, a considerable proportion of residents are transferred to hospital for management of acute deteriorations in health. This model of emergency care may have unintended consequences for patients and the healthcare system. This review describes available evidence about the consequences of transfers from RACF to hospital. METHODS a comprehensive search of the peer-reviewed literature using four electronic databases. Inclusion criteria were participants lived in nursing homes, care homes or long-term care, aged at least 65 years, and studies reported outcomes of acute ED transfer or hospital admission. Findings were synthesized and key factors identified. RESULTS residents of RACF frequently presented severely unwell with multi-system disease. In-hospital complications included pressure ulcers and delirium, in 19 and 38% of residents, respectively; and up to 80% experienced potentially invasive interventions. Despite specialist emergency care, mortality was high with up to 34% dying in hospital. Furthermore, there was extensive use of healthcare resources with large proportions of residents undergoing emergency ambulance transport (up to 95%), and inpatient admission (up to 81%). CONCLUSIONS acute emergency department (ED) transfer is a considerable burden for residents of RACF. From available evidence, it is not clear if benefits of in-hospital emergency care outweigh potential adverse complications of transfer. Future research is needed to better understand patient-centred outcomes of transfer and to explore alternative models of emergency healthcare.

A review of hospital characteristics associated with improved performance

PURPOSE The objective of this review was to critically appraise the literature relating to associations between high-level structural and operational hospital characteristics and improved performance. DATA SOURCES The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE (Ovid), CINAHL, proQuest and PsychINFO were searched for articles published between January 1996 and May 2010. Reference lists of included articles were reviewed and key journals were hand searched for relevant articles. STUDY SELECTION and data extraction Studies were included if they were systematic reviews or meta-analyses, randomized controlled trials, controlled before and after studies or observational studies (cohort and cross-sectional) that were multicentre, comparative performance studies. Two reviewers independently extracted data, assigned grades of evidence according to the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council guidelines and critically appraised the included articles. Data synthesis Fifty-seven studies were reported within 12 systematic reviews and 47 observational articles. There was heterogeneity in use and definition of performance outcomes. Hospital characteristics investigated were environment (incentives, market characteristics), structure (network membership, ownership, teaching status, geographical setting, service size) and operational design (innovativeness, leadership, organizational culture, public reporting and patient safety practices, information technology systems and decision support, service activity and planning, workforce design, staff training and education). The strongest evidence for an association with overall performance was identified for computerized physician order entry systems. Some evidence supported the associations with workforce design, use of financial incentives, nursing leadership and hospital volume. CONCLUSION There is limited, mainly low-quality evidence, supporting the associations between hospital characteristics and healthcare performance. Further characteristic-specific systematic reviews are indicated.