Johannes W. Kruisselbrink

The MCRA model for probabilistic single-compound and cumulative risk assessment of pesticides

Pesticide risk assessment is hampered by worst-case assumptions leading to overly pessimistic assessments. On the other hand, cumulative health effects of similar pesticides are often not taken into account. This paper describes models and a web-based software system developed in the European research project ACROPOLIS. The models are appropriate for both acute and chronic exposure assessments of single compounds and of multiple compounds in cumulative assessment groups. The software system MCRA (Monte Carlo Risk Assessment) is available for stakeholders in pesticide risk assessment at mcra.rivm.nl. We describe the MCRA implementation of the methods as advised in the 2012 EFSA Guidance on probabilistic modelling, as well as more refined methods developed in the ACROPOLIS project. The emphasis is on cumulative assessments. Two approaches, sample-based and compound-based, are contrasted. It is shown that additional data on agricultural use of pesticides may give more realistic risk assessments. Examples are given of model and software validation of acute and chronic assessments, using both simulated data and comparisons against the previous release of MCRA and against the standard software DEEM-FCID used by the Environmental Protection Agency in the USA. It is shown that the EFSA Guidance pessimistic model may not always give an appropriate modelling of exposure.

New approaches to uncertainty analysis for use in aggregate and cumulative risk assessment of pesticides

Risk assessments for human exposures to plant protection products (PPPs) have traditionally focussed on single routes of exposure and single compounds. Extensions to estimate aggregate (multi-source) and cumulative (multi-compound) exposure from PPPs present many new challenges and additional uncertainties that should be addressed as part of risk analysis and decision-making. A general approach is outlined for identifying and classifying the relevant uncertainties and variabilities. The implementation of uncertainty analysis within the MCRA software, developed as part of the EU-funded ACROPOLIS project to address some of these uncertainties, is demonstrated. An example is presented for dietary and non-dietary exposures to the triazole class of compounds. This demonstrates the chaining of models, linking variability and uncertainty generated from an external model for bystander exposure with variability and uncertainty in MCRA dietary exposure assessments. A new method is also presented for combining pesticide usage survey information with limited residue monitoring data, to address non-detect uncertainty. The results show that incorporating usage information reduces uncertainty in parameters of the residue distribution but that in this case quantifying uncertainty is not a priority, at least for UK grown crops. A general discussion of alternative approaches to treat uncertainty, either quantitatively or qualitatively, is included.

A European model and case studies for aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides

Exposures to plant protection products (PPPs) are assessed using risk analysis methods to protect public health. Traditionally, single sources, such as food or individual occupational sources, have been addressed. In reality, individuals can be exposed simultaneously to multiple sources. Improved regulation therefore requires the development of new tools for estimating the population distribution of exposures aggregated within an individual. A new aggregate model is described, which allows individual users to include as much, or as little, information as is available or relevant for their particular scenario. Depending on the inputs provided by the user, the outputs can range from simple deterministic values through to probabilistic analyses including characterisations of variability and uncertainty. Exposures can be calculated for multiple compounds, routes and sources of exposure. The aggregate model links to the cumulative dietary exposure model developed in parallel and is implemented in the web-based software tool MCRA. Case studies are presented to illustrate the potential of this model, with inputs drawn from existing European data sources and models. These cover exposures to UK arable spray operators, Italian vineyard spray operators, Netherlands users of a consumer spray and UK bystanders/residents. The model could also be adapted to handle non-PPP compounds.

PediHaplotyper: software for consistent assignment of marker haplotypes in pedigrees

In the study of large outbred pedigrees with many founders, individual bi-allelic markers, such as SNP markers, carry little information. After phasing the marker genotypes, multi-allelic loci consisting of groups of closely linked markers can be identified, which are called “haploblocks”. Here, we describe PediHaplotyper, an R package capable of assigning consistent alleles to such haploblocks, allowing for missing and incorrect SNP data. These haploblock genotypes are much easier to interpret by the human investigator than the original SNP data and also allow more efficient QTL analyses that require less memory and computation time.

A high-density, multi-parental SNP genetic map on apple validates a new mapping approach for outcrossing species

Quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping approaches rely on the correct ordering of molecular markers along the chromosomes, which can be obtained from genetic linkage maps or a reference genome sequence. For apple (Malus domestica Borkh), the genome sequence v1 and v2 could not meet this need; therefore, a novel approach was devised to develop a dense genetic linkage map, providing the most reliable marker-loci order for the highest possible number of markers. The approach was based on four strategies: (i) the use of multiple full-sib families, (ii) the reduction of missing information through the use of HaploBlocks and alternative calling procedures for single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers, (iii) the construction of a single backcross-type data set including all families, and (iv) a two-step map generation procedure based on the sequential inclusion of markers. The map comprises 15 417 SNP markers, clustered in 3 K HaploBlock markers spanning 1 267 cM, with an average distance between adjacent markers of 0.37 cM and a maximum distance of 3.29 cM. Moreover, chromosome 5 was oriented according to its homoeologous chromosome 10. This map was useful to improve the apple genome sequence, design the Axiom Apple 480 K SNP array and perform multifamily-based QTL studies. Its collinearity with the genome sequences v1 and v3 are reported. To our knowledge, this is the shortest published SNP map in apple, while including the largest number of markers, families and individuals. This result validates our methodology, proving its value for the construction of integrated linkage maps for any outbreeding species.