Johannes Wieland

The Optimal Inflation Rate in New Keynesian Models

We study the effects of positive steady-state inflation in New Keynesian models subject to the zero bound on interest rates. We derive the utility-based welfare loss function taking into account the effects of positive steady-state inflation and show that steady-state inflation affects welfare through three distinct channels: steady-state effects, the magnitude of the coefficients in the utility-function approximation, and the dynamics of the model. We solve for the optimal level of inflation in the model and find that, for plausible calibrations, the optimal inflation rate is low, less than two percent, even after considering a variety of extensions, including price indexation, endogenous price stickiness, capital formation, model-uncertainty, and downward nominal wage rigidities. On the normative side, price level targeting delivers large welfare gains and a very low optimal inflation rate consistent with price stability.

Abenomics: Preliminary Analysis and Outlook

In early 2013, Japan enacted a monetary regime change. The Bank of Japan set a 2 percent inflation target and specified concrete actions to achieve this goal by 2015. In 2013, Shinzo Abe’s government supported this change with fiscal policy and planned structural reforms. Together with the Bank of Japan’s aggressive monetary easing, this policy package is known as “Abenomics.” We show that Abenomics ended deflation in 2013 and raised long-run inflation expectations. Our estimates suggest that Abenomics also raised 2013 output growth by 0.9 to 1.8 percentage points. Monetary policy alone accounted for up to a percentage point of growth, largely through positive effects on consumption. In both the medium and the long run, Abenomics will likely continue to be stimulative. However, the size of this effect, while highly uncertain, thus far appears likely to fall short of Japan’s large output gap. In part this is because the Bank of Japan’s 2 percent inflation target is not yet fully credible. We conclude by outlining a way to interpret future data releases in light of our results.

Overcoming the Lost Decades?: Abenomics after Three Years

We review the recent performance of the Japanese economy under Abenomics, the set of economic policies begun by Prime Minister Shinzō Abe in 2012. We find that in 2014, Abenomics, and in particular expansionary monetary policy, continued to weaken the yen and raise stock prices. It also continued to generate positive inflation, though neither actual nor expected inflation is yet 2 percent. The real effects of Abenomics have been modest. Performance would have been better if not for two puzzles: The response of net exports to the weak yen was small, and there is little evidence that expansionary monetary policy had large effects on consumption.