John B. Casterline

Social Learning, Social Influence, and New Models of Fertility

This book chapter offers a theoretical model of fertility control that accounts for diffusion of information through social learning and social influence. It is posited that diffusion can slow down or speed up fertility declines shape patterns of contraceptive choice and help or hinder family planning program efforts. The authors consider the US and other low-fertility settings suitable for testing diffusion models. The proposed empirical model is a variant of the interdependent preferences model proposed by Pollak (1976) and expanded by Alessie and Kapteyn (1991) and Case (1991). Evidence from recent studies suggests that adolescent fertility decisions and attitudes are influenced strongly by peers and friends as well as parents. Most of the research findings on social effects focus on adolescent fertility and confirm the importance of social effects on adolescent fertility. The authors caution that much of this literature is flawed in research design and overestimates the importance of social effects. Evidence suggests that the social effects that have contributed to fears about health strongly influenced use of oral contraceptives and IUDs during the 1960s and 1970s. Evidence also identifies the importance of social networks in the use of reproductive and contraceptive services. It is possible that the unacceptability of nonmaternal child care depressed fertility in the 1970s and that increased acceptance during the 1980s had a mild pronatalist effect on fertility during the 1980s and 1990s. The proposed empirical model estimates contraceptive use in the absence of social effects. Social effects affect the pace of aggregate fertility change. The pace of change in fertility determinants may not match the pace of fertility change itself. A social effects model must account for how networks are formed and change over time. It is hoped that social effects models will be developed and tested.

The Diffusion of Fertility Control in Taiwan: Evidence from Pooled Cross-Section Time-Series Models

This article assesses whether Taiwans rapid fertility transition over the period 1960–1980 was facilitated by interpersonal diffusion. Annual data on some 361 areal units are available; these support the estimation of dynamic fixed-effect models of marital fertility. The statistical models take aim at the principal empirical prediction of diffusion hypotheses: the implication of autoregressive behaviour in fertility. We test for autoregressive effects over time within areas, and also for spatial effects whereby fertility control in one geographical area has a spillover influence on another. The Taiwanese data produce clear evidence in support of within-area diffusion. The evidence for cross-area diffusion is much weaker; there is surprisingly little suggestion of city-to-country diffusion. The estimates imply that interpersonal diffusion amplified the impact of Taiwans family planning programme on fertility.

The Age Difference Between Spouses: Variations among Developing Countries

Sub-national and cross-national variations in the age difference between spouses are investigated with data from the World Fertility Survey relating to 29 developing countries. Substantial variation within and between countries is evident. Analysis suggests that the relative age of prospective spouses is a factor taken into account in the marriage market. Observed variation in the age difference, within and between countries, cannot be explained as the simple by-product of the random matching of independently determined distributions of mens and womens ages at marriage. Certain age differences are avoided, others chosen more frequently. Preferred age differences appear to differ in the societies studied, however, and this variation can be directly interpreted in terms of two sets of factors: kinship structure and womens roles. The analysis also suggests that demographic determinants of the age difference, in particular age constraints on the pool of possible matches, are of less importance in explainin...

Villages as contexts for contraceptive behavior in rural Egypt.

This research joins sociological and demographic traditions in a study of villages as contexts for contraceptive behavior in rural Egypt. Using survey data collected in the early 1980s the authors explore the effects of village household and individual characteristics on contraceptive use and expectations about future use. Primary interest centers on the effects of the village variables including the structure of the village economy modernization of agriculture level of school participation and family planning service environment. The analysis demonstrates clearly that contraceptive behavior in rural Egypt varies systematically with these features of the village setting. In addition village effects appear to vary according to characteristics of individual respondents: women respond differently depending on the stage in their reproductive career and their motivation to regulate fertility. (authors)

The estimation of Unwanted Fertility

The estimation of unwanted fertility is a major objective of demographic surveys, including DHS surveys conducted in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Levels and trends in unwanted fertility are important input to the formulation of population policy and the evaluation of family planning programs. Yet existing methods for estimating unwanted fertility are known to be defective, among other reasons because they rely on subjective data whose validity and reliability are questionable. In this article, we propose a new estimator of unwanted fertility—the “aggregate prospective estimator”—so-named because it depends on the stated preference for another child at the time of the survey, the fertility-desires item consistently shown to possess the highest validity and reliability. Under reasonable assumptions, the aggregate prospective estimator produces less biased estimates of unwanted fertility than the most widely used existing methods. The new estimator has the limitation of generating only aggregate-level estimates, but such estimates are the primary data for policy formulation and program evaluation. The new estimator is presented in this article, along with an evaluation of its underlying assumptions and its sensitivity to several sources of error. In an illustrative application to recent DHS data from six countries, the new estimator yields substantially higher estimates of unwanted fertility than existing methods in all six countries.

Household income and child survival in Egypt.

This article uses household-level economic and fertility survey data to examine the relationship between household income and child survival in Egypt. Income has little effect on infant mortality but is inversely related to mortality in early childhood. The relationship persists with other associated socioeconomic variables controlled. The mechanisms underlying the income effects are not evident from this analysis: income differentials in sources of household drinking water, type of toilet facilities, and maternal demographic characteristics do not explain the net impact of income on child mortality. The absence of effects on child survival of the size of the place of residence and the relatively weak effects of maternal schooling are also notable.

Modelling Diffusion Effects in Fertility Transition

In this article we use a simple mathematical model to study the implications for fertility transition of the diffusion of birth-control practices through social interaction. The model proposed is dynamic and deterministic. The simulations demonstrate that interaction diffusion can make potentially large contributions to fertility declines. These contributions tend to be larger under more restrictive demand and supply conditions and, not surprisingly, in populations characterized by higher levels of social interaction about reproduction. Moreover, if social interaction is intense enough, fertility differentials fade away and fertility change resembles an imitation process. A direct implication of the model, clearly illustrated by the simulations, is that reduction in birth-control costs can stimulate greater demand for birth control. The simulations also illustrate the effects of geographical and social distances on fertility differentials, the pace of fertility transition, and the timing of the onset of t...

Collecting data on pregnancy loss: a review of evidence from the World Fertility Survey.

Estimates of levels and differentials of pregnancy loss are presented for 40 developing countries participating in the World Fertility Survey (WFS) program. Judged against agreed-upon levels of spontaneous loss in human populations, WFS surveys measured from 50 to 80 percent of recognizable losses. The coverage of induced abortions appears to be much worse. Consistent with data from other sources and settings, the probability of loss is strongly correlated with maternal demographic characteristics: age, pregnancy order, pregnancy spacing, and pregnancy loss history. Despite incomplete coverage, the WFS data on pregnancy loss provide considerable, and largely unexploited, insight on the dynamics of the reproductive career.

Diffusion Processes and Fertility Transition

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The Proximate Determinants of Fertility: Sub-national Variations

In this paper changes in the relative importance of the proximate determinants of fertility, as modernization increases, are analysed Educational attainment and type of place of current residence are used as indicators of modernization. We concentrate on the three most important proximate variables: marriage, contraception and breastfeeding, and the analysis is performed on 29 World Fertility Survey countries. Bongaartss multiplicative model is used for the analysis but the primary data tapes make it possible to construct more refined estimates of the three indices than is usually possible. The patterns of the indices among the two sets of socio-economic sub-groups are considered, as well as the interrelationships of the indices. Fertility differences among the sub-groups are also decomposed to assess the contribution of the separate proximate determinants to sub-group variations in fertility.