John Bamford

Interobserver agreement for the assessment of handicap in stroke patients.

Interobserver agreement for the assessment of handicap in stroke patients was investigated in a group of 10 senior neurologists and 24 residents from two centers. One hundred patients were separately interviewed by two physicians in different combinations. The degree of handicap was recorded by each observer on the modified Rankin scale, which has six grades (0-5). The agreement rates were corrected for chance (kappa statistics). Both physicians agreed on the degree of handicap in 65 patients; they differed by one grade in 32 patients and by two grades in 3 patients. Kappa for all pairwise observations was 0.56; the value for weighted kappa (with quadratic disagreement weights) was 0.91. Our results confirm the value of the modified Rankin scale in the assessment of handicap in stroke patients; nevertheless, further improvements are possible.

Classification and natural history of clinically identifiable subtypes of cerebral infarction

We describe the incidence and natural history of four clinically identifiable subgroups of cerebral infarction in a community-based study of 675 patients with first-ever stroke. Of 543 patients with a cerebral infarct, 92 (17%) had large anterior circulation infarcts with both cortical and subcortical involvement (total anterior circulation infarcts, TACI); 185 (34%) had more restricted and predominantly cortical infarcts (partial anterior circulation infarcts, PACI); 129 (24%) had infarcts clearly associated with the vertebrobasilar arterial territory (posterior circulation infarcts, POCI); and 137 (25%) had infarcts confined to the territory of the deep perforating arteries (lacunar infarcts, LACI). There were striking differences in natural history between the groups. The TACI group had a negligible chance of good functional outcome and mortality was high. More than twice as many deaths were due to the complications of immobility than to direct neurological sequelae of the infarct. Patients in the PACI group were much more likely to have an early recurrent stroke than were patients in other groups. Those in the POCI group were at greater risk of a recurrent stroke later in the first year after the index event but had the best chance of a good functional outcome. Despite the small anatomical size of the infarcts in the LACI group, many patients remained substantially handicapped. The findings have important implications for the planning of stroke treatment trials and suggest that various therapies could be directed specifically at the subgroups.

A prospective study of acute cerebrovascular disease in the community: the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project--1981-86. 2. Incidence, case fatality rates and overall outcome at one year of cerebral infarction, primary intracerebral and subarachnoid haemorrhage.

The age and sex specific incidence rates for cerebral infarction, primary intracerebral haemorrhage and subarachnoid haemorrhage in a population of approximately 105,000 are presented. Over four years 675 patients with a first-ever stroke were registered with the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project. The pathological diagnosis was confirmed by computerised tomography (CT) scan, necropsy or lumbar puncture (cases of subarachnoid haemorrhage only) in 78% of cases and a further 17% were diagnosed according to the Guys Hospital Stroke Diagnostic Score. The proportion of all first-ever strokes by pathological type was: cerebral infarction 81% (95% confidence interval 78-84), primary intracerebral haemorrhage 10% (8-12), subarachnoid haemorrhage 5% (3-7) and uncertain type 5% (3-7). These proportions are similar to other community-based studies. The overall 30 day case fatality rate was 19% (16-22), that for cerebral infarction being 10% (7-13), primary intracerebral haemorrhage 50% (38-62) and subarachnoid haemorrhage 46% (29-63). One year post stroke 23% (19-27) with cerebral infarction were dead and 65% (60-70) of survivors were functionally independent. The figures for primary intracerebral haemorrhage were 62% (43-81) dead and 68% (50-86) of survivors functionally independent and for subarachnoid haemorrhage were 48% (24-72) dead and 76% (56-96) of survivors functionally independent. There are important differences between these rates and those from other sources possibly due to more complete case ascertainment in our study. Nevertheless, the generally more optimistic early prognosis in our study, particularly for cases of cerebral infarction, has important implications for the planning of clinical trials and for the expected impact that any treatment might have on the general population.

A prospective study of acute cerebrovascular disease in the community: the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project 1981-86. 1. Methodology, demography and incident cases of first-ever stroke.

A prospective study of acute cerebrovascular disease in a community of about 105,000 people is reported. The study protocol combined rapid clinical assessment of patients with accurate diagnosis of the pathological type of stroke by CT or necropsy, whether or not they were admitted to hospital. The study population was defined as those people who were registered with one of 50 collaborating general practitioners (GPs). Referrals to the study were primarily from the GPs though, to ensure complete case ascertainment, hospital casualty and admission registers, death certificates and special data from the Oxford Record Linkage Study were also scrutinized. Six hundred and seventy five cases of clinically definite first-ever in a lifetime stroke were registered in four years yielding a crude annual incidence of 1.60/1,000 or 2.00/1,000 when adjusted to the 1981 population of England and Wales. The age and sex specific incidence rates for first stroke showed a steep rise with age for both sexes. The odds of a male sustaining a first stroke were 26% greater than those of a female. Ninety one per cent of patients were examined in a median time of four days after the event by a study neurologist and 88% had cerebral CT or necropsy.

Very Early Risk of Stroke After a First Transient Ischemic Attack

Background and Purpose— The commonly quoted early risks of stroke after a first transient ischemic attack (TIA)—1% to 2% at 7 days and 2% to 4% at 1 month—are likely to be underestimates because of the delay before inclusion into previous studies and the exclusion of patients who had a stroke during this time. Therefore, it is uncertain how urgently TIA patients should be assessed. We used data from the Oxford Community Stroke Project (OCSP) to estimate the very early stroke risk after a TIA and investigated the potential effects of the delays before specialist assessment. Methods— All OCSP patients who had a first-ever definite TIA during the study period (n=209) were included. Three analyses were used to estimate the early stroke risk after a first TIA starting from 3 different dates: assessment by a neurologist, referral to the TIA service, and onset of first TIA. Results— The stroke risk from assessment by a neurologist was 1.9% [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.1 to 3.8] at 7 days and 4.4% (95% CI, 1.6 to 7.2) at 30 days. The 7- and 30-day stroke risks from referral were 2.4% (95% CI, 0.3 to 4.5) and 4.9% (95% CI, 1.9 to 7.8), respectively, and from onset of first-ever TIA were 8.6% (95% CI, 4.8 to 12.4) and 12.0% (95% CI, 7.6 to 16.4), respectively. Conclusions— The early risk of stroke from date of first-ever TIA is likely to be higher than commonly quoted. Public education about the symptoms of TIA is needed so that medical attention is sought more urgently and stroke prevention strategies are implemented sooner.

Prognosis of transient ischemic attacks in the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project

In a community-based study of approximately 105,000 people, 184 presented with a transient ischemic attack during the 5 years between 1981 and 1986; we believe these persons represent almost all new cases of transient ischemic attack going to a doctor during that period. During a mean follow-up of 3.7 years 49 patients died, 45 had a first-ever stroke, and 17 had a myocardial infarction. Cardiac disease accounted for 17 (35%) deaths, while stroke was the cause of death in 15 patients (31%). The average actuarial risk of death was approximately 6.3%/yr, slightly greater than that expected for similar people without transient ischemic attacks (risk ratio [observed divided by expected] = 1.4). The actuarial risk of stroke was 11.6% during the first year after a transient ischemic attack and approximately 5.9%/yr over the first 5 years. Patients who suffered a transient ischemic attack had a 13-fold excess risk of stroke during the first year and a sevenfold excess risk over the first 7 years compared with people without transient ischemic attacks. The actuarial risk of death, stroke, or myocardial infarction over the first 5 years after a transient ischemic attack was approximately 8.4%/yr. The prognosis in this community-based cohort was better than that in previous reports. The high early risk of stroke means that investigation and treatment of new cases should commence as soon as possible.

The frequency, causes and timing of death within 30 days of a first stroke: the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project.

In a prospective, community-based study of 675 consecutive patients with a first-ever stroke, of whom over 90% had computed tomography (CT) and/or necropsy examinations, 129 deaths occurred within 30 days of the onset of symptoms, a case fatality rate (CFR) of 19%. The 30 day CFR for patients with cerebral infarction was 10% (57 of 545, for primary intracerebral haemorrhage 52% (34 of 66), for subarachnoid haemorrhage 45% (15 of 33) and for those of uncertain pathological type 74% (23 of 31). The CFR for patients who had been functionally dependent pre-stroke was 33% compared with 17% for those who had been independent pre-stroke. The age-adjusted relative risk of death for patients who had been functionally dependent pre-stroke was not significantly greater (1.8, 95% confidence interval 0 to 4.3). There was a significant trend for CFR to increase with age (Chi square for trend = 4.0, p less than 0.05). This relationship was found in those patients who had been functionally independent prestroke (Chi square for trend = 7.9, p less than 0.005) but not in those who had been dependent pre-stroke (Chi square for trend = 0.5, NS). The pattern of increasing CFR with increasing age amongst those who had been independent prestroke was seen particularly in patients with cerebral infarction (Chi square for trend = 8.6, p less than 0.005). The age-adjusted relative risk of death for patients with cerebral infarction who had been functionally dependent pre-stroke was 2.2 (95% confidence interval 1.2 to 4.1). Fifty three percent of all deaths within 30 days of stroke were due to the direct neurological sequelae of the stroke. Patients with primary intracerebral or subarachnoid haemorrhages were significantly more likely to die in this way than those with cerebral infarction (relative risk 4.1; 95% confidence interval 3.4-4.9) and 56% of such deaths occurred within 72 hours of onset. In patients with cerebral infarction, 51% of deaths were due to complications of immobility (for example, pneumonia, pulmonary embolism) and these were more likely to occur after the first week. These findings have implications for clinical practice and the planning of clinical trials.

Evolution and testing of the lacunar hypothesis.

Since Fishers detailed observations in the 1960s, the term lacunar infarction has become established in the cerebrovascular literature. To some extent, users of the term implicitly accept the bipartite hypothesis that, among patients with cerebral infarction of diverse cause, there exists, first, a small number of distinct clinical syndromes that are associated with small deep infarcts or lacunes and, second, that these are the result of occlusion of single perforating arteries by characteristic vascular lesions. Several studies have suggested that lacunar infarcts may constitute up to 20% of all cases of cerebral infarctionthough less is known about the specificity of the underlying arteriopathy. Despite their relative frequency, there have not been any trials of specific treatments, and furthermore, few treatment trials of cerebral infarction in general have taken this important subgroup into account, perhaps resulting in the inappropriate discarding of therapeutic measures that might benefit other subgroups.To decide whether this is due to some basic flaw in the hypothesis, to inadequate testing, or to poor communication of its clinical implications to other physicians, two questions need to be answered: are the clinically recognizable lacunar syndromes usually caused by lacunes and, if they are, are these lacunes usually caused by a specific disorder of the small perforating arteries at the base of the brain, which differs qualitatively from the more widely studied atheroma of extracranial arteries.

Are hypertension or cardiac embolism likely causes of lacunar infarction

We tested the hypothesis that hypertension is more common and cardiac embolism less common in patients with lacunar infarction than in patients with other types of cerebral infarction. We studied risk factor profiles in a series of 102 consecutive patients with a lacunar infarct and 202 consecutive patients with a carotid artery-distribution infarct involving the cortex registered in the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project, a community-based study of first-ever stroke. The two groups did not differ in the prevalence of prestroke hypertension (defined in a number of ways) or in the prevalence of markers of sustained hypertension. The presence of atrial fibrillation and a history of myocardial infarction, particularly during the 6 weeks before the stroke, were significantly more common in the group with carotid-distribution infarcts involving the cortex. There was no significant difference in the prevalence of other accepted risk factors for ischemic stroke, including previous transient ischemic attack, cervical bruit, diabetes mellitus, peripheral vascular disease, or cigarette smoking. Our results suggest that hypertension is no more important in the development of lacunar infarction than it is in the development of other types of ischemic stroke that are presumed to be due to atherosclerotic thromboembolism in a major cerebral artery. Our data support the autopsy evidence that cardioembolic occlusion is an unusual cause of lacunar infarction.

Incidence of transient ischemic attacks in Oxfordshire, England.

The Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project is a prospective register of all new cases of stroke and transient ischemic attack (TIA) in a population of 105,000 residents of Oxfordshire, England. Between November 1, 1981, and October 31, 1986, 184 patients presented for the first time to a general practitioner or hospital with a TIA. The crude annual incidence rate was 0.35/1000, 0.42/1000 standardized to the 1981 population of England and Wales. We estimate that each year approximately 21,000 patients in England and Wales (about half of whom are greater than 70 years old) consult a doctor for the first time with a TIA. Approximately 80% of our 184 patients had TIAs in the carotid distribution; the remainder had TIAs in the vertebrobasilar distribution or TIAs of uncertain vascular distribution. The incidence of TIA increased sharply with increasing age, and the overall incidence in men was very similar to that in women (incidence ratio 1.3). However, in middle age, men were much more likely to suffer a TIA than women (odds ratio 2.6), which probably explains the marked male predominance in most hospital-based studies and treatment trials in which the elderly, and thus women, are underrepresented. This has important implications for the design and interpretation of clinical trials of treatment for TIAs.