John C. Kostelnick

GIS analysis of global impacts from sea level rise.

Future sea level rise caused by climate change would disrupt the physical processes, economic activities, and social systems in coastal regions. Based on a hypothetical global sea level increase of one to six meters, we developed GIS methods to assess and visualize the global impacts of potential inundation using the best available global datasets. After susceptible areas were delineated, we estimated that the size of the areas is between 1.055 (one meter) to 2.193 million km 2 (six meters). Population in the susceptible areas was estimated to range from 108 (one meter) to 431 million (six meters) people. Among the seven land-cover types in the susceptible areas, forest and grassland account for more than 60 percent for all the increments of sea level rise. A suite of interactive visualization products was also developed to understand and communicate the ramifications of potential sea level rise.

Cartographic Symbols for Humanitarian Demining

Abstract A new standard set of cartographic symbols for landmine hazards and mine actions (e.g., clearances, hazard reductions, mine risk education (MRE), and technical surveys) in humanitarian demining activities is proposed, as well as a five-step approach that was utilised to develop the symbol set and that may be applied to the design of related map symbols in digital mapping environments. To promulgate the new symbol set, the Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining and the American Geographical Society recently sponsored workshops in New York, NY, and Reston, VA. Workshop attendees, including key representatives from international organisations, private firms, and NGOs, indicated great enthusiasm for a future global standard.

A Cartographic Framework for Visualizing Risk

Increased attention to global climate change in recent years has resulted in a wide array of maps and geovisualizations that forecast various scenarios. Since many consequences of climate change are inherently geographic in nature, effective cartographic representations that depict these risks are valuable for planning and mitigation purposes. In particular, sea-level rise resulting from climate change calls attention to the numerous representation issues that warrant consideration for hazard and risk mapping in general, including categorizing and representing risk, selecting an appropriate level of realism, and displaying potential impacts of a hazard on human populations as well as on the natural and built environments. Using examples of potential inundation from sea-level rise at global, regional, and local scales, the authors propose a conceptual framework of key cartographic considerations for maps, Web-based mashups, and geovisualizations that depict risk. The cartographic framework presented here may be extended to other risks of an ambiguous or fuzzy nature and may be used to organize key future research areas for hazard or risk mapping in general.

Ecological niche modeling of Black-tailed prairie dog habitats in Kansas

Abstract Black-tailed prairie dog (BTPD) (Cynomys ludovicianus) populations in Kansas have declined significantly due to both natural and human-induced threats. To minimize the risk of future population declines, it is necessary to identify existing BTPD habitats in the state as well as areas suitable for BTPD habitat. This paper presents a method for modeling BTPD habitats in Kansas using geographic information systems (GIS), remote sensing, and ecological niche modeling with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction (GARP). Environmental variables incorporated into the ecological niche modeling process include composite biweekly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) layers derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery, slope, soil depth, and soil texture. Species occurrence training and validation data were selected from an aerial survey of BTPD colonies by the Kansas Department of Wildlife and Parks (KDWP). Accuracy assessment methods, including Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis, omission calculation, and validation with an independent BTPD colony dataset collected for the Cimarron National Grassland in Morton County, indicate a high degree of accuracy for the GARP models. A map of BTPD habitat suitability produced by the ecological niche modeling has the potential to aid state agencies and organizations in their efforts to prevent further population declines in the species.

Developing a GIS Program at a Tribal College

Abstract Programs in geographic information systems (GIS) and related areas (e.g., GPS, remote sensing) have become important additions to the curriculum at colleges and universities of all sizes and types, including tribal colleges and universities (TCUs) such as Haskell Indian Nations University. This article discusses the recent development of a GIS program at Haskell that has been built around three major components: (1) courses; (2) outreach activities; and (3) projects. Key lessons learned from the experience include the importance of developing diversified goals and activities to promote student success, pursuing external funding, expanding GIS within the university through collaborations with other departments and disciplines, and ensuring that basic geographic principles remain a vital part of the GIS curriculum. The development of the GIS program at Haskell may serve as a model for other small colleges and universities, particularly tribal and other minority-serving institutions, that seek to add GIS to the curriculum.

Approaching Cave Level Identification with GIS: A Case Study of Carter Caves

Cave passages that are found at similar elevations are grouped together and called levels. The current understanding is that passages within a level are speleogenetically linked to a common static baselevel or stratigraphic control. Cave levels have provided an interpretive framework for deciphering cave development, landscape evolution, and climatic changes. Cosmogenic dating has been successfully used to interpret levels in Mammoth Cave and the Cumberland Plateau; however, this technique is expensive and there are limited funding resources available. Geographic information systems may be used as preliminary procedures to identify cave levels and constrain the timing of level development. A GIS method is applied to the Carter Cave system in northeastern Kentucky. Cave entrance elevations along stream valleys were found by extracting elevation values from a  m digital elevation model. Using a histogram generated from the frequency of cave elevations and a natural breaks classifier, four cave levels were identified in the Carter Cave system. This work improves the understanding of the Carter Cave system evolution and contributes toa methodology that can be used to ascertain an erosion history of karst systems.

Environmental stress as an indicator of anthropogenic impact across the African Albertine Rift: a case study using museum specimens

We examined fluctuating asymmetry (FA) and body condition (BC) as two measures of environmental stress using museum specimens of Lophuromys aquilus, a rodent species complex wide-spread across the African Albertine Rift. We related FA and BC to a spatially-derived index of anthropogenic impact using a principal components analysis (PCA). We found no relationship between the four PCA scores and mean FA or BC, but did find that FA variance was higher in areas with lower anthropogenic impact. There was also a negative, albeit non-significant, trend for PC3, suggesting that populations with higher than average BC were in areas with higher anthropogenic impact. Overall, our case study does not support FA and BC as effective predictors of environmental stress with low to moderate habitat disturbance. In fact, L. aquilus, as a habitat generalist, may be positively affected by some aspects of anthropogenic change. Studies relating environmental stress to anthropogenic impact should examine sites with a wide range of habitat qualities and human impact and utilize multiple measures of environmental stress to characterize the health of one or more populations.

Optimizing DEM resolution inputs and number of stream gauges in GIS predictions of flood inundation

Spatial analysis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is evaluated for its ability to predict the potential hazard of a flood event in the Illinois River region in the state of Illinois, USA. The data employed in the analysis are available to the public from trusted organizations such as Illinois State Geological Survey and the US Geological Survey (USGS). Since available GIS data may be limited for flood risk modeling in some parts of the world, the purposes of this study are to examine the use of spatial analysis in a GIS to determine flood inundation risk and to produce an accurate flood inundation vulnerability map employing the least amount of data. This study concentrates on areas that have stream gauge data with definable flood stage(s) and utilizes the inverse distance weighted (IDW) interpolation method on different digital elevation models (DEM) with different spatial resolutions (1 m, 10 m, and 30 m) to determine the extent of flooding over the study area. Resulting maps created for the Illinois River region yielded about 80% agreement to the effects of an actual flood event on the Illinois River near Peoria, IL on April 23, 2013. A four-gauge distribution scenario using a 10 m DEM produced the most accurate results, but all scenarios generated reasonable flood simulation. Thus, we speculate that it is possible to create a flood prediction map with a reasonable amount of accuracy using only two initial input data layers: stream gauges and a DEM.

Judgments of Size Change Trends in Static and Animated Graduated Circle Displays

Despite the abundance of research on the perception of information presented as graduated or proportional circles on static maps, such experiments have been rare for animated map displays. However, such experimental results might be beneficial for selecting optimal methods for depicting temporal change on graduated circle maps. In the present experiment, participants judged whether a greater number of circles in an n x n array increased or decreased during a 1500-millisecond (ms) observation interval. The variable n represented values of 6, 8, and 10,and all circles changed size (some larger, some smaller) from a common starting size either in a discrete shift (static condition) in the middle of the observation interval, or in a smooth, apparently continuous shift (animated condition) over the same interval. In addition, the size changes were relatively small, moderate, or large. The proportion of “more bigger” judgments, plotted against the actual proportions of enlarged circles, produced an ogive function (a cumulative normal) with similar slopes in all conditions. However, the bias towards “bigger” judgments increased with the size discrepancies between the initial and final circle diameters, and the bias towards “bigger” judgments was greater for animated than for static circle diameter changes. The results are interpreted in terms of attentional precedence for larger items and also for those that appear to be continuously increasing in size (looming). These results have implications for the presentation of information on static and animated graduated circle maps.