John C. Stella

Synchrony of Seed Dispersal, Hydrology and Local Climate in a Semi-arid River Reach in California

The temporal availability of propagules is a critical factor in sustaining pioneer riparian tree populations along snowmelt-driven rivers because seedling establishment is strongly linked to seasonal hydrology. River regulation in semi-arid regions threatens to decouple seed development and dispersal from the discharge regime to which they evolved. Using the lower Tuolumne River as a model system, we quantified and modeled propagule availability for Populus fremontii (POFR), Salix gooddingii (SAGO), and Salix exigua (SAEX), the tree and shrub species that dominate near-channel riparian stands in the San Joaquin Basin, CA. A degree-day model was fit to field data of seasonal seed density and local temperature from three sites in 2002–2004 to predict the onset of the peak dispersal period. To evaluate historical synchrony of seed dispersal and seasonal river hydrology, we compared peak spring runoff timing to modeled peak seed release periods for the last 75 years. The peak seed release period began on May 15 for POFR (range April 23–June 10), May 30 for SAGO (range May 19–June 11) and May 31 for SAEX (range May 8–June 30). Degree-day models for the onset of seed release reduced prediction error by 40–67% over day-of-year means; the models predicted best the interannual, versus site-to-site, variation in timing. The historical analysis suggests that POFR seed release coincided with peak runoff in almost all years, whereas SAGO and SAEX dispersal occurred during the spring flood recession. The degree-day modeling approach reduce uncertainty in dispersal timing and shows potential for guiding flow releases on regulated rivers to increase riparian tree recruitment at the lowest water cost.

Riparian vegetation research in Mediterranean-climate regions: common patterns, ecological processes, and considerations for management

Riparian corridors in Mediterranean-climate regions (med-regions) are resource-rich habitats within water-limited, larger landscapes. However, little is known about how their plant communities compare functionally and compositionally across med-regions. In recent decades, research on these ecosystems has expanded in both geographic scope and disciplinary depth. We reviewed 286 riparian-vegetation studies across the five med-regions, and identified common themes, including: (1) high levels of plant biodiversity, structural complexity, and cross-region species introductions; (2) strong physical controls on plant demographics and community structure; and (3) intensive human impacts. European and Californian ecosystems were the most represented among the studies reviewed, but Australia, South Africa, and Chile had the greatest proportional increases in articles published since 2000. All med-regions support distinct riparian flora, although many genera have invaded across regions. Plant species in all regions are adapted to multiple abiotic stressors, including dynamic flooding and sediment regimes, seasonal water shortage, and fire. The most severe human impacts are from land-use conversion to agriculture, streamflow regulation, nutrient enrichment, and climate change. Current knowledge gaps and subjects for future research include cumulative impacts to small, ephemeral streams and large, regulated rivers, as well as understudied ecosystems in North Africa, the western Mediterranean basin, and Chile.

Global sensitivity analysis for complex ecological models: a case study of riparian cottonwood population dynamics

Mechanism-based ecological models are a valuable tool for understanding the drivers of complex ecological systems and for making informed resource-management decisions. However, inaccurate conclusions can be drawn from models with a large degree of uncertainty around multiple parameter estimates if uncertainty is ignored. This is especially true in nonlinear systems with multiple interacting variables. We addressed these issues for a mechanism-based, demographic model of Populus fremontii (Fremont cottonwood), the dominant riparian tree species along southwestern U.S. rivers. Many cottonwood populations have declined following widespread floodplain conversion and flow regulation. As a result, accurate predictive models are needed to analyze effects of future climate change and water management decisions. To quantify effects of parameter uncertainty, we developed an analytical approach that combines global sensitivity analysis (GSA) with classification and regression trees (CART) and Random Forest, a bootstrapping CART method. We used GSA to quantify the interacting effects of the full range of uncertainty around all parameter estimates, Random Forest to rank parameters according to their total effect on model predictions, and CART to identify higher-order interactions. GSA simulations yielded a wide range of predictions, including annual germination frequency of 10-100%, annual first-year survival frequency of 0-50%, and patch occupancy of 0-100%. This variance was explained primarily by complex interactions among abiotic parameters including capillary fringe height, stage-discharge relationship, and floodplain accretion rate, which interacted with biotic factors to affect survival. Model precision was primarily influenced by well-studied parameter estimates with minimal associated uncertainty and was virtually unaffected by parameter estimates for which there are no available empirical data and thus a large degree of uncertainty. Therefore, research to improve model predictions should not always focus on the least-studied parameters, but rather those to which model predictions are most sensitive. We advocate the combined use of global sensitivity analysis, CART, and Random Forest to: (1) prioritize research efforts by ranking variable importance; (2) efficiently improve models by focusing on the most important parameters; and (3) illuminate complex model properties including nonlinear interactions. We present an analytical framework that can be applied to any model with multiple uncertain parameter estimates.

Ecogeomorphic feedbacks and flood loss of riparian tree seedlings in meandering channel experiments

During floods, fluvial forces interact with riparian plants to influence evolution of river morphology and floodplain plant community development. Understanding of these interactions, however, is constrained by insufficient precision and control of drivers in field settings, and insufficient realism in laboratory studies. We completed a novel set of flume experiments using woody seedlings planted on a sandbar within an outdoor meandering stream channel. We quantified effects on local sedimentation and seedling loss to scour and burial across realistic ranges of woody plant morphologies (Populus versus Tamarix species), densities (240 plants m−2 versus 24 m−2), and sediment supply (equilibrium versus deficit). Sedimentation was higher within Tamarix patches than Populus patches, reflecting Tamarixs greater crown frontal area and lower maximum crown density. Plant dislodgement occurred rarely (1% of plants) and was induced in plants with shorter roots. Complete burial was most frequent for small Tamarix that occurred at high densities. Burial risk decreased 3% for Populus and 13% for Tamarix for every centimeter increment in stem height, and was very low for plants >50 cm tall. These results suggest that Tamarix are proportionally more vulnerable than Populus when small (<20 cm tall), but that larger plants of both species are resistant to both burial and scour. Thus, plant morphological traits and development windows must be considered in addition to physical drivers when designing process-based restoration efforts on regulated rivers such as flow releases to benefit native tree species.

When do plants modify fluvial processes? Plant-hydraulic interactions under variable flow and sediment supply rates

Flow and sediment regimes shape alluvial river channels; yet the influence of these abiotic drivers can be strongly mediated by biotic factors such as the size and density of riparian vegetation. We present results from an experiment designed to identify when plants control fluvial processes and to investigate the sensitivity of fluvial processes to changes in plant characteristics versus changes in flow rate or sediment supply. Live seedlings of two species with distinct morphologies, tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) and cottonwood (Populus fremontii), were placed in different configurations in a mobile sand-bed flume. We measured the hydraulic and sediment flux responses of the channel at different flow rates and sediment supply conditions representing equilibrium (sediment supply = transport rate) and deficit (sediment supply < transport rate). We found that the hydraulic and sediment flux responses during sediment equilibrium represented a balance between abiotic and biotic factors and was sensitive to increasing flow rates and plant species and configuration. Species-specific traits controlled the hydraulic response: compared to cottonwood, which has a more tree-like morphology, the shrubby morphology of tamarisk resulted in less pronation and greater reductions in near-bed velocities, Reynolds stress, and sediment flux rates. Under sediment-deficit conditions, on the other hand, abiotic factors dampened the effect of variations in plant characteristics on the hydraulic response. We identified scenarios for which the highest stem-density patch, independent of abiotic factors, dominated the fluvial response. These results provide insight into how and when plants influence fluvial processes in natural systems.

Regional growth decline of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) and its potential causes

Sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh) has experienced poor vigor, regeneration failure, and elevated mortality across much of its range, but there has been relatively little attention to its growth rates. Based on a well-replicated dendrochronological network of range-centered populations in the Adirondack Mountains (USA), which encompassed a wide gradient of soil fertility, we observed that the majority of sugar maple trees exhibited negative growth trends in the last several decades, regardless of age, diameter, or soil fertility. Such growth patterns were unexpected, given recent warming and increased moisture availability, as well as reduced acidic deposition, which should have favored growth. Mean basal area increment was greater on base-rich soils, but these stands also experienced sharp reductions in growth. Growth sensitivity of sugar maple to temperature and precipitation was non-stationary during the last century, with overall weaker relationships than expected. Given the favorable competitive status and age structure of the Adirondack sugar maple populations sampled, evidence of widespread growth reductions raises concern over this ecologically and economically important tree. Further study will be needed to establish whether growth declines of sugar maple are occurring more widely across its range.

Restoring Ecological Integrity in Highly Regulated Rivers: The Role of Baseline Data and Analytical References

The goal of restoring ecological integrity in rivers is frequently accompanied by an assumption that a comparative reference reach can be identified to represent minimally impaired conditions. However, in many regulated rivers, no credible historical, morphological or process-based reference reach exists. Resilient restoration designs should instead be framed around naturalization, using multiple analytical references derived from empirically-calibrated field- and model-based techniques to develop an integrated ecological reference condition. This requires baseline data which are rarely collected despite increasing evidence for systematic deficiencies in restoration practice. We illustrate the utility of baseline data collection in restoration planning for the highly fragmented and regulated lower Merced River, California, USA. The restoration design was developed using various baseline data surveys, monitoring, and modeling within an adaptive management framework. Baseline data assisted in transforming conceptual models of ecosystem function into specific restoration challenges, defining analytical references of the expected relationships among ecological parameters required for restoration, and specifying performance criteria for post-project monitoring and evaluation. In this way the study is an example of process-based morphological restoration designed to prompt recovery of ecosystem processes and resilience. For the Merced River, we illustrate that project-specific baseline data collection is a necessary precursor in developing performance-based restoration designs and addressing scale-related uncertainties, such as whether periodic gravel augmentation will sustain bed recovery and whether piecemeal efforts will improve ecological integrity. Given the numerous impediments to full, historical, restoration in many river systems, it seems apparent that projects of naturalization are a critical step in reducing the deleterious impacts of fragmented rivers worldwide.

Climate change perils for dioecious plant species

Climate change, particularly increased aridity, poses a significant threat to plants and the biotic communities they support. Dioecious species may be especially vulnerable to climate change given that they often exhibit spatial segregation of the sexes, reinforced by physiological and morphological specialization of each sex to different microhabitats. In dimorphic species, the overexpression of a trait by one gender versus the other may become suppressed in future climates. Data suggest that males will generally be less sensitive to increased aridity than co-occurring females and, consequently, extreme male-biased sex ratios are possible in a significant number of populations. The effects of male-biased sex ratios are likely to cascade to dependent community members, especially those that are specialized on one sex.

Hydrogeologic Processes Impacting Storage, Fate, and Transport of Chloride from Road Salt in Urban Riparian Aquifers

Detrimental effects of road salt runoff on urban streams are compounded by its facilitated routing via storm drains, ditches, and flood channels. Elevated in-stream salinity may also result from seasonal storage and discharge of chloride in groundwater, and previous work has hypothesized that groundwater discharge to streams may have the effect of diluting stream chloride concentrations in winter and enriching them in summer. However, the hydrogeological processes controlling these patterns have not been thoroughly investigated. Our research focuses on an urban stream and floodplain system in Syracuse, NY, to understand how groundwater and surface water exchange impacts chloride storage, fate, and transport. We created a 3D groundwater flow and solute transport model of the floodplain, calibrated to the distributions of floodplain hydraulic heads and groundwater fluxes to the stream throughout the reach. We used a sensitivity analysis to calibrate and evaluate the influence of model parameters, and compared model outputs to field observations. The main source mechanism of chloride to the floodplain aquifer was high-concentration, overbank flood events in winter that directly recharged groundwater. The modeled residence time and storage capacity of the aquifer indicate that restoration projects designed to promote floodplain reconnection and the frequency of overbank flooding in winter have the potential to temporarily store chloride in groundwater, buffer surface water concentrations, and reduce stream concentrations following periods of road salting.

Fluvial sediment supply and pioneer woody seedlings as a control on bar‐surface topography

Plants influence river channel topography, but our understanding of the interaction among plants, flow, and sediment is limited, especially when sediment supply is variable. Using laboratory experiments in a recirculating flume with live seedlings in a mobile sand bed, we demonstrate how varying the balance between sediment supply and transport capacity shifts the relationship between plants and bar-surface topography. Each experimental trial contrasted two sediment conditions, in which initially supply was maintained in equilibrium with transport via sediment recirculation, followed by sediment deficit, in which transport capacity exceeded supply, which was set to zero. For both sediment balances, the topographic response was sensitive to plant size, with larger plants inducing greater aggradation relative to a baseline condition. During sediment equilibrium, the positive relationship between plant size and topographic change also depended on species morphology (multi-stemmed shrubs versus single-stemmed plants). Plant morphology effects disappeared when the sediment balance shifted to a deficit, but the presence of plants had a greater impact on the magnitude of change compared to the topographic response under sediment equilibrium. Our results suggest that the interactions among sediment supply, plants, and topography may be strongest on rivers with a balance in sediment supply and transport capacity. Because of the large variability in fluvial sediment supply resulting from natural and anthropogenic influences, these interactions will differ spatially (e.g. longitudinally through a watershed) and at different temporal scales, from single flood events to longer time periods. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.