John Cappelen

Increased Runoff from Melt from the Greenland Ice Sheet: A Response to Global Warming

The authors attribute significantly increased Greenland summer warmth and Greenland Ice Sheet melt and runoff since 1990 to global warming. Southern Greenland coastal and Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures were uncorrelated between the 1960s and early 1990s but were significantly positively correlated thereafter. This relationship appears to have been modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation, whose summer index was significantly (negatively) correlated with southern Greenland summer temperatures until the early 1990s but not thereafter. Significant warming in southern Greenland since 1990, as also evidenced from Swiss Camp on the west flank of the ice sheet, therefore reflects general Northern Hemisphere and global warming. Summer 2003 was the warmest since at least 1958 in coastal southern Greenland. The second warmest coastal summer 2005 had the most extensive anomalously warm conditions over the ablation zone of the ice sheet, which caused a record melt extent. The year 2006 was the third warmest in coastal southern Greenland and had the third-highest modeled runoff in the last 49 yr from the ice sheet; five of the nine highest runoff years occurred since 2001 inclusive. Significantly rising runoff since 1958 was largely compensated by increased precipitation and snow accumulation. Also, as observed since 1987 in a single composite record at Summit, summer temperatures near the top of the ice sheet have declined slightly but not significantly, suggesting the overall ice sheet is experiencing a dichotomous response to the recent general warming: possible reasons include the ice sheet’s high thermal inertia, higher atmospheric cooling, or changes in regional wind, cloud, and/or radiation patterns.

Greenland Ice Sheet: Increased coastal thinning

Repeated laser-altimeter surveys and modelled snowfall/summer melt show average ice loss from Greenland between 1997 and 2003 was 80 ± 12 km3 yr-1, compared to about 60 km3 yr -1 for 1993/4-1998/9. Half of the increase was from higher summer melting, with the rest caused by velocities of some glaciers exceeding those needed to balance upstream snow accumulation. Velocities of one large glacier almost doubled between 1997 and 2003, resulting in net loss from its drainage basin by about 20 km3 of ice between 2002 and 2003. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Runoff and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet: 1958-2003

Meteorological models were used to retrieve annual accumulation, runoff, and surface mass balance on a 5 km A� 5 km grid for the Greenland ice sheet for 1958-2003. We present the first such history that provides insight into seasonal and interannual variability, which should prove useful for those studying the ice sheet. Derived runoff was validated by means of a control model run and independent in situ data. Modeled accumulation has already been validated using shallow ice core data. Surface mass balance (SMB) responds rapidly on a yearly basis to changing meteorological (surface air temperature and precipitation) forcing. There are distinct signals in runoff and SMB following three major volcanic eruptions. Runoff losses from the ice sheet were 264 (±26) km3 yr-1 in 1961-1990 and 372 (±37) km3 yr-1 in 1998-2003. Significantly rising runoff since the 1990s has been partly offset by increased precipitation. Our best estimate of overall mass balance declined from 22 (±51) km 3 yr-1 in 1961-1990 to - 36 (±59) km3 yr-1 in 1998-2003, which is not statistically significant. Additional dynamical factors that cause an acceleration of ice flow near the margins, and possible enhanced iceberg calving, may have led to a more negative mass balance in the past few years than suggested here. The implication is a significant and accelerating recent contribution from the ice sheet to global sea level rise, with 0.15 mm yr-1 from declining SMB alone over the last 6 years. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Annual accumulation for Greenland updated using ice core data developed during 2000--2006 and analysis of daily coastal meteorological data

An updated accumulation map for Greenland is presented on the basis of 39 new ice core estimates of accumulation, 256 ice sheet estimates from ice cores and snow pits used in previous maps, and reanalysis of time series data from 20 coastal weather stations. The period 1950-2000 is better represented by the data than are earlier periods. Ice-sheetwide accumulation was estimated based on kriging. The average accumulation (95 confidence interval, or ±2 times standard error) over the Greenland ice sheet is 30.0 ± 2.4 g cm -2 a-1, with the average accumulation above 2000-m elevation being essentially the same, 29.9 ± 2.2 g cm-2 a -1. At higher elevations the new accumulation map maintains the main features shown in previous maps. However, there are five coastal areas with obvious differences: southwest, northwest, and eastern regions, where the accumulation values are 20-50 lower than previously estimated, and southeast and northeast regions, where the accumulation values are 20-50 higher than previously estimated. These differences are almost entirely due to new coastal data. The much lower accumulation in the southwest and the much higher accumulation in the southeast indicated by the current map mean that long-term mass balance in both catchments is closer to steady state than previously estimated. However, uncertainty in these areas remains high owing to strong gradients in precipitation from the coast inland. A significant and sustained precipitation measurement program will be needed to resolve this uncertainty. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Present-Day Climate at Zackenberg

Publisher Summary This chapter outlines the most prominent parameters of climate at Zackenberg and focuses on the short-term spatiotemporal variations of these parameters within the valley Zackenbergdalen and along the east coast of Greenland. The individual climatological parameters demonstrate large spatiotemporal variations. The greatest variations occur in winter when the differentiated influence of the solar energy is low or equal to zero, but this is connected to the fact that in the cold winter period, the cyclonic activity is more intensive and frequent than in the warmer summer period. In addition, the temperature contrast between the arctic air and the advected air from the mid-latitudes is highest during this period. In turn, the effect of the underlying surface is not large because snow and sea ice cover almost the entire arctic area. In the warm summer period, the solar radiation is the most important climatological element, and it causes the greatest heterogeneity of the meteorological elements in all spatial scales: micro-, macro-, and topo-climatic. The albedo of the underlying surface that is significantly differentiated increases the influence of solar radiation in the radiation balance. However, because of the attenuated influence of the atmospheric and oceanic circulations and the large areas of the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas not covered by sea ice, the climatic spatiotemporal differences are lesser in summer than in winter.

Extending Greenland temperature records into the late eighteenth century

[1] At present, continuous instrumental temperature records for Greenland reach back to the late nineteenth century at a few sites. Combining early observational records from locations along the south and west coasts, it has been possible to extend the overall record back to the year 1784. The new extended Greenland temperature record is 9% incomplete. There are, however, sufficient new data (an additional 74 complete winters and 52 complete summers) to provide a valuable indication of late eighteenth century and nineteenth century seasonal trends. Comparison of the previously published records with additional observational series digitized from Danish Meteorological Institute Yearbooks has also revealed inhomogeneities in some of the existing twentieth century temperature records. These problems have been eliminated in the new extended Greenland temperature record. A long homogeneous west Greenland instrumental temperature record is of great value for the interpretation of the growing number of Greenland ice core records. A first comparison of the new record with highly resolved Greenland ice core data is presented. Correlations between west Greenland winter temperatures and the ice core winter season proxy are found to be r = 0.67 and r = 0.60 for the periods 1785– 1872 and 1873–1970, respectively.

Recent warming in Greenland in a long-term instrumental (1881-2012) climatic context: I. Evaluation of surface air temperature records

We present an updated analysis of monthly means of daily mean, minimum and maximum surface air temperature (SAT) data from Greenland coastal weather stations and from a long-running site on the Greenland ice sheet, and analyse these data for evidence of climate change, especially focusing on the last 20 years but using the whole periods of available records (some since 1873). We demonstrate very strong recent warming along the west coast of Greenland, especially during winter (locally > 10 degrees C since 1991), and rather weaker warming on the east Greenland coast, which is influenced by different oceanographic/sea-ice and meteorological synoptic forcing conditions to the rest of Greenland. Coastal Greenland seasonal mean SAT trends were generally 2-6 degrees C, strongest in winter (5.7 degrees C) and least in summer and autumn (both 2.2 degrees C), during 1981-2011/12. Since 2001 Greenland mean coastal SAT increased significantly by 2.9 degrees C in winter and 0.8 degrees C in summer but decreased insignificantly by 1.1 degrees C in autumn and 0.2 degrees C in spring, during a period when there was little net change (<=+/- 0.1 degrees C) in northern hemisphere temperatures. SAT means for the latest 2001-11/12 decade were significantly in excess of those for peak decadal periods during the Early Twentieth Century Warm Period only in summer and winter, and not significantly greater in spring and autumn. Summer SAT increases in southern Greenland for the last 20 years were generally greater for maximum than minimum temperatures. By contrast, in winter, the recent warming was greater for minimum than maximum temperatures. The greatest SAT changes in all seasons are seen on Greenlands west coast. SAT changes on the ice sheet and a key marginal glacier closely followed nearby coastal temperatures over the last 20 years.

Observed and modeled Greenland ice sheet snow accumulation, 1958-2003, and links with regional climate forcing

Abstract Annual and monthly snow accumulation for the Greenland Ice Sheet was derived from ECMWF forecasts [mainly 40-yr ECMWR Re-Analysis (ERA-40)] and further meteorological modeling. Modeled accumulation was validated using 58 ice core accumulation datasets across the ice sheet and was found to be 95% of the observed accumulation on average, with a mean correlation of 0.53 between modeled and observed. Many of the ice core datasets are new and are presented here for the first time. Central and northern interior parts of the ice sheet were found to be ∼10%–30% too dry in ERA-40, in line with earlier ECMWF analysis, although too much (>50% locally) snow accumulation was modeled for interior southern parts of Greenland. Nevertheless, 47 of 58 sites show significant correlation in temporal variability of modeled with observed accumulation. The model also captures the absolute amount of snow accumulation at several sites, most notably Das1 and Das2 in southeast Greenland. Mean modeled accumulation over the ...

New Insights into North European and North Atlantic Surface Pressure Variability, Storminess, and Related Climatic Change since 1830

Abstract The authors present initial results of a new pan-European and international storminess since 1800 as interpreted from European and North Atlantic barometric pressure variability (SENABAR) project. This first stage analyzes results of a new daily pressure variability index, dp(abs)24, from long-running meteorological stations in Denmark, the Faroe Islands, Greenland, Iceland, the United Kingdom, and Ireland, some with data from as far back as the 1830s. It is shown that dp(abs)24 is significantly related to wind speed and is therefore a good measure of Atlantic and Northwest European storminess and climatic variations. The authors investigate the temporal and spatial consistency of dp(abs)24, the connection between annual and seasonal dp(abs)24 and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), as well as dp(abs)24 links with historical storm records. The results show periods of relatively high dp(abs)24 and enhanced storminess around 1900 and the early to mid-1990s, and a relatively quiescent perio...

Quantifying Energy and Mass Fluxes Controlling Godthåbsfjord Freshwater Input in a 5-km Simulation (1991–2012)*,+

AbstractFreshwater runoff to fjords with marine-terminating glaciers along the Greenland Ice Sheet margin has an impact on fjord circulation and potentially ice sheet mass balance through increasing heat transport to the glacier front. Here, the authors use the high-resolution (5.5 km) HIRHAM5 regional climate model, allowing high detail in topography and surface types, to estimate freshwater input to Godthabsfjord in southwest Greenland. Model output is compared to hydrometeorological observations and, while simulated daily variability in temperature and downwelling radiation shows high correlation with observations (typically >0.9), there are biases that impact the results. In particular, overestimated albedo leads to underestimation of melt and runoff at low elevations.In the model simulation (1991–2012), the ice sheet experiences increasing energy input from the surface turbulent heat flux (up to elevations of 2000 m) and shortwave radiation (at all elevations). Southerly wind anomalies and declining ...