John Cranfield

Who consumes functional foods and nutraceuticals in Canada?: Results of cluster analysis of the 2006 survey of Canadians’ Demand for Food Products Supporting Health and Wellness

This research seeks to identify consumer segments related to consumption of functional food and nutraceutical products in Canada. The segments are differentiated by consumer receptivity to functional foods and nutraceuticals. In turn, receptivity is tied to attitudes, motivations and knowledge related to food/diet and connections with health. At one extreme, a segment emerges that is highly receptive to functional foods and nutraceuticals, and shows a keen interest in learning about foods that have health benefits. A second segment, conversely, has low receptivity, but demonstrates a higher degree of knowledge related to the relationship between food/diet and health. A key driver of receptivity towards functional foods and nutraceuticals appears to be perceptions of disease threat, which tend to increase with age. Pre-emptive use of messages relating to the preventative properties of these products does not seem to have a major impact on the receptivity of consumers.

Changes in the Structure of Global Food Demand

May 1998 Purdue AGEC Staff Paper #98-5 A newly developed demand system is used to estimate the response of food and food product demand to per capita expenditure changes. The resulting Engel elasticities are then used to project food and food product demand in 2020 assuming per capita expenditure and population changes. Results suggest that while food expenditure is projected to grow, it accounts for a smaller proportion of total expenditure. Further analysis indicates change in the composition of food demand away from a grain and towards livestock is projected to occur in lower income countries in 2020.

Estimating consumer demands across the development spectrum: maximum likelihood estimates of an implicit direct additivity model

Abstract This paper characterizes consumer demand patterns across the development spectrum using elasticity estimates from a demand system possessing non-linear Engel effects. Demands for six broadly defined goods are then projected under the assumption that per capita expenditure growth rates differ across the development spectrum. Such projections illustrate the extent to which non-linear income effects generate more plausible demand responses. Estimated marginal budget shares for food decline in a logistical manner and range from about 0.5 for Ethiopia to less than 0.05 for the USA. Engel elasticities for food range from 0.95 for Ethiopia to less than 0.1 for the USA.

A Multifactorial Risk Prioritization Framework for Foodborne Pathogens

We develop a prioritization framework for foodborne risks that considers public health impact as well as three other factors (market impact, consumer risk acceptance and perception, and social sensitivity). Canadian case studies are presented for six pathogen-food combinations: Campylobacter spp. in chicken; Salmonella spp. in chicken and spinach; Escherichia coli O157 in spinach and beef; and Listeria monocytogenes in ready-to-eat meats. Public health impact is measured by disability-adjusted life years and the cost of illness. Market impact is quantified by the economic importance of the domestic market. Likert-type scales are used to capture consumer perception and acceptance of risk and social sensitivity to impacts on vulnerable consumer groups and industries. Risk ranking is facilitated through the development of a knowledge database presented in the format of info cards and the use of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to aggregate the four factors. Three scenarios representing different stakeholders illustrate the use of MCDA to arrive at rankings of pathogen-food combinations that reflect different criteria weights. The framework provides a flexible instrument to support policymakers in complex risk prioritization decision making when different stakeholder groups are involved and when multiple pathogen-food combinations are compared.

On the estimation of 'an implicitly additive demand system'

Motivated by a lack of Engel flexibility in commonly used demand systems, Rimmer and Powell developed a new demand system. This system, referred to AIDADS, is implicitly, directly additive, possesses marginal budget shares and thus Engel elasticities, that vary nonlinearly with expenditure such that predicted budget shares are restricted to the [0,1] interval. Due to these attractive Engel properties, AIDADS represents a significant contribution to the literature on demand analysis. This paper presents an alternative estimation procedure to the one used by Rimmer and Powell and examines its properties via a case study. The proposed approach avoids a linear approximation employed in Rimmer and Powells estimation framework. Based on a small Monte Carlo study, it appears that the approach produces more accurate estimates of the parameters and Engel elasticities.

Performance of microenterprises in Ghana: a resource‐based view

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the financial performance of microenterprises in Ghana by applying the resource‐based theory of the firm. Specifically, it is tested that if firm‐specific resources dominate sector and market‐wide effects in explaining microenterprise performance, as suggested by the resource‐based theory.Design/methodology/approach – The relevant literature for both microenterprise performance and the resource‐based theory is reviewed. Data from the 1998/1999 Ghana Living Standards Survey are analysed using ordinary least squares, followed by robustness checks.Findings – Factors embodied in firm‐specific resources jointly impact enterprise performance. However, sector/market factors also play a role, suggesting that the interaction between microenterprise, sector, and market factors helps explain enterprise performance.Research limitations/implications – All the constructs of the resource‐based theory cannot be tested due to data limitations.Originality/value – Small enter...

Understanding Consumer Attitudes Toward Food Technologies in Canada

This article reports a study on consumer attitudes to 21 food and nonfood technologies in Canada. The study involves repertory grid interviews with 36 food consumers, the data from which are analyzed using generalized Procrustes analysis. Results highlight the role of perceived risk and perceived benefit in determining the acceptability of the technologies, with individual technologies lying along a continuum between the two. For technology as a whole and the 21 specific technologies, the perceived risk and perceived benefit constructs were the dominant determinants of consumer acceptability. While perceptions of perceived risk and perceived benefit differed between individual respondents, there were very limited consistent relations with a range of sociodemographic variables.

Difficulty of healthy eating: A Rasch model approach

This study aims to measure the difficulty of healthy eating as a single latent construct and, within that, assess which dietary guidelines consumers find more or less difficult to comply with using the Rasch model approach. Participants self-reported their compliance with 12 health-promoting dietary recommendations related to cooking methods and consumption of specific food items. Data were drawn from a survey elicited using a longitudinal consumer panel established in the City of Guelph, Ontario, Canada in 2008. The panel consists of 1962 randomly-selected residents of Guelph between the age of 20 and 69 years. The response rate was equal to 68 percent. The main assumptions of the Rasch model were satisfied. However, subsequent differential item functioning analysis revealed significant scale variations by gender, education, age and household income, which reduced the validity of the Rasch scale. Conversely, these scale variations highlight the importance of socio-economic and demographic factors on the difficulty of healthy eating.

Poverty Analysis Using an International Cross-Country Demand System

This paper proposes a new method for ex ante analysis of the poverty impacts arising from policy reforms. Three innovations underlie this approach. The first is the estimation of a global demand system using a combination of micro-data from household surveys and macro-data from the International Comparisons Project (ICP). Estimation is undertaken in a manner that reconciles these two sources of information, explicitly recognizing that per capita national demands are an aggregation of the disaggregated, individual household demands. The second innovation relates to a methodology for post-estimation calibration of the global demand system, giving rise to country-specific demand systems and an associated expenditure function which, when aggregated across the expenditure distribution, reproduce observed per capita budget shares exactly. This leads to the third innovation, which is the establishment of a unique poverty level of utility and an appropriately modified set of Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measures. With these tools in hand, the authors are able to calculate the change in the head-count of poverty, poverty gap, and squared poverty gap arising from policy reforms, where the poverty measures are derived using a unique poverty level of utility, rather than an income or expenditure-based measure. They use these techniques with a demand system for food, other nondurables and services estimated using a combination of 1996 ICP data set and national expenditure distribution data. Calibration is demonstrated for three countries for which household survey expenditure data are used during estimation-Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. To show the usefulness of these calibrated models for policy analysis, the authors assess the effects of an assumed 5 percent food price rise as might be realized in the wake of a multilateral trade agreement. Results illustrate the important role of subsistence expenditures at lowest income levels, but of discretionary expenditure at higher income levels. The welfare analysis underscores the relatively large impact of the price hike on poorer households, while a modified Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measure shows that the 5 percent price rise increases the incidence and intensity of poverty in all three cases, although the specific effects vary considerably by country.

A Multi-Factorial Risk Prioritization Framework for Food-Borne Pathogens

To lower the incidence of human food-borne disease, experts and stakeholders have urged the development of a science- and risk-based management system in which food-borne hazards are analyzed and prioritized. A literature review shows that most approaches to risk prioritization developed to date are based on measures of health outcomes and do not systematically account for other factors that may be important to decision making. The Multi-Factorial Risk Prioritization Framework developed here considers four factors that may be important to risk managers: public health, consumer risk perceptions and acceptance, market-level impacts, and social sensitivity. The framework is based on the systematic organization and analysis of data on these multiple factors. The basic building block of the information structure is a three-dimensional cube based on pathogen-food-factor relationships. Each cell of the cube has an information card associated with it and data from the cube can be aggregated along different dimensions. The framework is operationalized in three stages, with each stage adding another dimension to decision-making capacity. The first stage is the information cards themselves that provide systematic information that is not pre-processed or aggregated across factors. The second stage maps the information on the various information cards into cobweb diagrams that create a graphical profile of, for example, a food-pathogen combination with respect to each of the four risk prioritization factors. The third stage is formal multi-criteria decision analysis in which decision makers place explicit values on different criteria in order to develop risk priorities. The process outlined above produces a ‘List A’ of priority food-pathogen combinations according to some aggregate of the four risk prioritization factors. This list is further vetted to produce ‘List B’, which brings in feasibility analysis by ranking those combinations where practical actions that have a significant impact are feasible. Food-pathogen combinations where not enough is known to identify any or few feasible interventions are included in ‘List C’. ‘List C’ highlights areas with significant uncertainty where further research may be needed to enhance the precision of the risk prioritization process. The separation of feasibility and uncertainty issues through the use of ‘Lists A, B, and C’ allows risk managers to focus separately on distinct dimensions of the overall prioritization. The Multi-Factorial Risk Prioritization Framework provides a flexible instrument that compares and contrasts risks along four dimensions. Use of the framework is an iterative process. It can be used to establish priorities across pathogens for a particular food, across foods for a particular pathogen and/or across specific food-pathogen combinations. This report provides a comprehensive conceptual paper that forms the basis for a wider process of consultation and for case studies applying the framework.