John D. Kraemer

Strengthening the Detection of and Early Response to Public Health Emergencies: Lessons from the West African Ebola Epidemic

Mark Siedner and colleagues reflect on the early response to the Ebola epidemic and lessons that can be learned for future epidemics.

Analysis of Legal and Scientific Issues in Court Challenges to Graphic Tobacco Warnings

Smoking is the leading preventable cause of death in the U.S., yet cigarette health warnings in the U.S. are among the weakest in the world. In 2011, the FDA issued regulations mandating that graphic warnings be displayed on every cigarette pack sold in the U.S. Almost immediately, the tobacco industry challenged the warnings on First Amendment grounds. In March 2013, the FDA withdrew the graphic warning mandate, choosing instead to pursue additional research and then issue requirements for a new set of warnings. These warnings almost certainly will be challenged by the tobacco industry. The current paper describes the legal standards that will be used to assess the warnings, and the empirical questions that must be answered in order to determine whether each standard has been met. The paper also identifies errors the FDA could make in choosing images to be evaluated that would cause the images to be unable to meet the standards, regardless of the scientific evidence the FDA can establish. To be on safest ground, the FDA should adopt images that depict factual health consequences of smoking and should avoid images that could be interpreted as opinions. The FDA will have a high likelihood of prevailing in legal challenges to the warnings if there is evidence demonstrating that graphic warnings are necessary to counter past industry deception or that graphic warnings affect smoking behavior better than textual warnings. Even without evidence of the impact of graphic warnings on behavior, strong evidence that they affect behavioral intent, and that intent predicts behavior, should be sufficient for the warnings to be upheld. Alternatively, evidence that graphic warnings lead to more accurate consumer assessment of smoking risks should also be sufficient.

Helmet Wearing Among Users of a Public Bicycle-Sharing Program in the District of Columbia and Comparable Riders on Personal Bicycles

Bicycle-sharing programs are increasingly popular and have the potential to increase physical activity and decrease air pollution, but anecdotal evidence suggests helmet use is lower among users of bicycle-sharing programs than cyclists on private bicycles. We conducted a cross-sectional study to assess helmet use among users of a bicycle-sharing program in Washington, DC. Helmet use was significantly lower among cyclists on shared bicycles than private bicycles, highlighting a need for targeted helmet promotion activities.

Variability in school closure decisions in response to 2009 H1N1: a qualitative systems improvement analysis

BackgroundSchool closure was employed as a non-pharmaceutical intervention against pandemic 2009 H1N1, particularly during the first wave. More than 700 schools in the United States were closed. However, closure decisions reflected significant variation in rationales, decision triggers, and authority for closure. This variability presents the opportunity for improved efficiency and decision-making.MethodsWe identified media reports relating to school closure as a response to 2009 H1N1 by monitoring high-profile sources and searching Lexis-Nexis and Google news alerts, and reviewed reports for key themes. News stories were supplemented by observing conference calls and meetings with health department and school officials, and by discussions with decision-makers and community members.ResultsThere was significant variation in the stated goal of closure decision, including limiting community spread of the virus, protecting particularly vulnerable students, and responding to staff shortages or student absenteeism. Because the goal of closure is relevant to its timing, nature, and duration, unclear rationales for closure can challenge its effectiveness. There was also significant variation in the decision-making authority to close schools in different jurisdictions, which, in some instances, was reflected in open disagreement between school and public health officials. Finally, decision-makers did not appear to expect the level of scientific uncertainty encountered early in the pandemic, and they often expressed significant frustration over changing CDC guidance.ConclusionsThe use of school closure as a public health response to epidemic disease can be improved by ensuring that officials clarify the goals of closure and tailor closure decisions to those goals. Additionally, authority to close schools should be clarified in advance, and decision-makers should expect to encounter uncertainty disease emergencies unfold and plan accordingly.

Science, Politics, and Values : The Politicization of Professional Practice Guidelines

The Connecticut Attorney Generals recent allegations that the Infectious Disease Society of America violated antitrust law through its treatment guidelines for Lyme disease were neither based in sound science or appropriate legal judgment. Strong scientific evidence favors IDSAs position that chronic infection with the etiologic agent of Lyme disease does not occur in the absence of objective signs of ongoing infection and that long-term antibiotic use to treat dubious infection, recommended in the quasi-scientific guidelines put forth by the International Lyme and Associated Diseases Society (ILADS), are of no benefit. In siding with ILADS and other chronic Lyme disease advocates, ultimately forcing IDSA to settle lest it expend exorbitant legal costs, the attorney general abused science and his public trust. This case exemplifies the politicization of health policy and confuses the relative spheres inhabited by normative discourse and scientific inquiry. Science should provide the evidentiary base for normative discussions, and values and politics will always be important in deciding how science is applied for human benefit. But a wall of separation is needed between science, values, and politics, as medical science, and the patients who depend on it, is too important for political distortion.

Innovative public-private partnership: a diagonal approach to combating women’s cancers in Africa.

PROBLEM In low- and middle-income countries, breast and cervical cancer have a poor prognosis, partly owing to barriers to treatment. To redress this situation, health systems must be strengthened. APPROACH Pink Ribbon Red Ribbon (PRRR) is an innovative partnership designed to leverage public and private investments in global health and to build on the successful United States Presidents Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) platform to combat cancers of the breast and cervix in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America. By supporting a comprehensive set of country-owned and country-driven interventions, PRRR seeks to reduce deaths from cervical cancer among women screened and treated through the programme and to reduce deaths from breast cancer by promoting early detection. LOCAL SETTING In its initial phase, PRRR is supporting the governments of Botswana, Zambia and other countries in expanding cervical cancer prevention, screening and treatment coverage - especially to high-risk women with human immunodeficiency virus infection - and in strengthening breast cancer education and control services. RELEVANT CHANGES PRRR has introduced a diagonal strategy based on the life course and continuum of care approaches to cancer control. Its work has resulted in the delivery of the human papillomavirus vaccine to young girls in several settings and in the strengthening of prevention, screening and treatment delivery systems from the community to the tertiary level. LESSONS LEARNT This paper outlines the approach PRRR has taken as a country-aligned public-private partnership and the preliminary lessons learnt, including the need for flexible implementation, effective country coordination mechanism and regular communication with all stakeholders.

Facility-based delivery during the Ebola Virus disease epidemic in rural Liberia: analysis from a cross-sectional, population-based household survey

Background The Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic has threatened access to basic health services through facility closures, resource diversion, and decreased demand due to community fear and distrust. While modeling studies have attempted to estimate the impact of these disruptions, no studies have yet utilized population-based survey data. Methods and Findings We conducted a two-stage, cluster-sample household survey in Rivercess County, Liberia, in March–April 2015, which included a maternal and reproductive health module. We constructed a retrospective cohort of births beginning 4 y before the first day of survey administration (beginning March 24, 2011). We then fit logistic regression models to estimate associations between our primary outcome, facility-based delivery (FBD), and time period, defined as the pre-EVD period (March 24, 2011–June 14, 2014) or EVD period (June 15, 2014–April 13, 2015). We fit both univariable and multivariable models, adjusted for known predictors of facility delivery, accounting for clustering using linearized standard errors. To strengthen causal inference, we also conducted stratified analyses to assess changes in FBD by whether respondents believed that health facility attendance was an EVD risk factor. A total of 1,298 women from 941 households completed the survey. Median age at the time of survey was 29 y, and over 80% had a primary education or less. There were 686 births reported in the pre-EVD period and 212 in the EVD period. The unadjusted odds ratio of facility-based delivery in the EVD period was 0.66 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.48–0.90, p-value = 0.010). Adjustment for potential confounders did not change the observed association, either in the principal model (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.70, 95%CI 0.50–0.98, p = 0.037) or a fully adjusted model (AOR = 0.69, 95%CI 0.50–0.97, p = 0.033). The association was robust in sensitivity analyses. The reduction in FBD during the EVD period was observed among those reporting a belief that health facilities are or may be a source of Ebola transmission (AOR = 0.59, 95%CI 0.36–0.97, p = 0.038), but not those without such a belief (AOR = 0.90, 95%CI 0.59–1.37, p = 0.612). Limitations include the possibility of FBD secular trends coincident with the EVD period, recall errors, and social desirability bias. Conclusions We detected a 30% decreased odds of FBD after the start of EVD in a rural Liberian county with relatively few cases. Because health facilities never closed in Rivercess County, this estimate may under-approximate the effect seen in the most heavily affected areas. These are the first population-based survey data to show collateral disruptions to facility-based delivery caused by the West African EVD epidemic, and they reinforce the need to consider the full spectrum of implications caused by public health emergencies.

Remoteness and maternal and child health service utilization in rural Liberia: A population–based survey

Background This study seeks to understand distance from health facilities as a barrier to maternal and child health service uptake within a rural Liberian population. Better understanding the relationship between distance from health facilities and rural health care utilization is important for post–Ebola health systems reconstruction and for general rural health system planning in sub–Saharan Africa. Methods Cluster–sample survey data collected in 2012 in a very rural southeastern Liberian population were analyzed to determine associations between quartiles of GPS–measured distance from the nearest health facility and the odds of maternal (ANC, facility–based delivery, and PNC) and child (deworming and care seeking for ARI, diarrhea, and fever) service use. We estimated associations by fitting simple and multiple logistic regression models, with standard errors adjusted for clustered data. Findings Living in the farthest quartile was associated with lower odds of attending 1–or–more ANC checkup (AOR = 0.04, P < 0.001), 4–or–more ANC checkups (AOR = 0.13, P < 0.001), delivering in a facility (AOR = 0.41, P = 0.006), and postnatal care from a health care worker (AOR = 0.44, P = 0.009). Children living in all other quartiles had lower odds of seeking facility–based fever care (AOR for fourth quartile = 0.06, P < 0.001) than those in the nearest quartile. Children in the fourth quartile were less likely to receive deworming treatment (AOR = 0.16, P < 0.001) and less likely (but with only marginal statistical significance) to seek ARI care from a formal HCW (AOR = 0.05, P = 0.05). Parents in distant quartiles more often sought ARI and diarrhea care from informal providers. Conclusions Within a rural Liberian population, distance is associated with reduced health care uptake. As Liberia rebuilds its health system after Ebola, overcoming geographic disparities, including through further dissemination of providers and greater use of community health workers should be prioritized.

Mind the Scales: Harnessing Spatial Big Data for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Inference

Spatial big data have the velocity, volume, and variety of big data sources and contain additional geographic information. Digital data sources, such as medical claims, mobile phone call data records, and geographically tagged tweets, have entered infectious diseases epidemiology as novel sources of data to complement traditional infectious disease surveillance. In this work, we provide examples of how spatial big data have been used thus far in epidemiological analyses and describe opportunities for these sources to improve disease-mitigation strategies and public health coordination. In addition, we consider the technical, practical, and ethical challenges with the use of spatial big data in infectious disease surveillance and inference. Finally, we discuss the implications of the rising use of spatial big data in epidemiology to health risk communication, and public health policy recommendations and coordination across scales.

Plain packaging of cigarettes: do we have sufficient evidence?

Tobacco industry marketing is a primary factor influencing cigarette smoking behavior and the cigarette pack has become an important marketing vehicle for tobacco companies. Standardized “plain” cigarette packaging is advocated as a public health policy to prevent and reduce morbidity and mortality caused by smoking by reducing youth smoking initiation and promoting cessation among smokers. Plain packaging was implemented in Australia in December 2012, and several other countries are considering doing so, but each faces foreseeable legal resistance from opponents to such measures. Tobacco companies have challenged these public health policies, citing international trade agreements and intellectual property laws. Decision-making in these court cases will hinge in part on whether the evidence indicates the public health benefits of plain packaging outweigh any potential harm to tobacco manufacturers’ interests. We reviewed the available evidence in support of plain packaging, finding evidence from observational, experimental, and population-based studies. Results indicate that plain packaging can reduce positive perceptions of smoking and dissuade tobacco use. Governments deciding to implement plain cigarette packaging measures can rely on this evidence to help make a strong case that plain packaging plays an important role in the context of comprehensive smoking prevention efforts.