John E. Thornes

How to judge the quality and value of weather forecast products

In order to decide whether or not a weather service supplier is giving good value for money we need to monitor the quality of the forecasts and the use that is made of the forecasts to estimate their value. A number of verification statistics are examined to measure the quality of forecasts ‐ including Miss Rate, False Alarm Rate, the Peirce Skill Score and the Odds Ratio Skill Score ‐ and a means of testing the significance of these values is presented. In order to assess the economic value of the forecasts a value index is suggested that takes into account the cost-loss ratio and forecast errors. It is suggested that a combination of these quality and value statistics could be used by weather forecast customers to choose the best forecast provider and to set limits for performance related contracts.

The use of geographical information systems in climatology and meteorology

The proliferation of ‘commercial off-the-shelf’ geographical information systems into the scientific community has resulted in the widespread use of spatial climate data in a variety of applications. This paper presents a review of the role of geographical information systems in climatology and meteorology by (i) discussing methods used to derive and refine spatial climate data and (ii) reviewing the bespoke application of GIS and spatial climate datasets in agriculture, ecology, forestry, health and disease, weather forecasting, hydrology, transport, urban environments, energy and climate change.

Impact of climate change on the domestic indoor environment and associated health risks in the UK

There is growing evidence that projected climate change has the potential to significantly affect public health. In the UK, much of this impact is likely to arise by amplifying existing risks related to heat exposure, flooding, and chemical and biological contamination in buildings. Identifying the health effects of climate change on the indoor environment, and risks and opportunities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, can help protect public health. We explored a range of health risks in the domestic indoor environment related to climate change, as well as the potential health benefits and unintended harmful effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in the UK housing sector. We reviewed relevant scientific literature, focusing on housing-related health effects in the UK likely to arise through either direct or indirect mechanisms of climate change or mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment. We considered the following categories of effect: (i) indoor temperatures, (ii) indoor air quality, (iii) indoor allergens and infections, and (iv) flood damage and water contamination. Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities across these categories and in a variety of ways, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. Certain changes to the indoor environment can affect indoor air quality or promote the growth and propagation of pathogenic organisms. Measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have the potential for ancillary public health benefits including reductions in health burdens related heat and cold, indoor exposure to air pollution derived from outdoor sources, and mould growth. However, increasing airtightness of dwellings in pursuit of energy efficiency could also have negative effects by increasing concentrations of pollutants (such as PM2.5, CO and radon) derived from indoor or ground sources, and biological contamination. These effects can largely be ameliorated by mechanical ventilation with heat recovery (MVHR) and air filtration, where such solution is feasible and when the system is properly installed, operated and maintained. Groups at high risk of these adverse health effects include the elderly (especially those living on their own), individuals with pre-existing illnesses, people living in overcrowded accommodation, and the socioeconomically deprived. A better understanding of how current and emerging building infrastructure design, construction, and materials may affect health in the context of climate change and mitigation and adaptation measures is needed in the UK and other high income countries. Long-term, energy efficient building design interventions, ensuring adequate ventilation, need to be promoted.

Real-Time Sky-View Factor Calculation and Approximation

Abstract Previously, the acquisition of sky-view factor data for climate studies has been time consuming and dependent on postprocessing. However, advances in technology now mean that techniques using fish-eye imagery can be algorithmically processed in real time to provide an instant calculation of the sky-view factor. Although data collection is often limited due to the need to survey under homogenous overcast skies, vast datasets can now be rapidly assembled for the training of proxy “all weather” techniques. An artificial neural network is used to estimate the sky-view factor using raw global positioning system (GPS) data and is shown to explain over 69% of the variation of the sky-view factor in urban areas.

THE IMPACT OF THE ANOMALOUS WEATHER OF 1995 ON THE U.K. ECONOMY

This study assesses selected impacts on tertiary activities of the anomalously hot summer of 1995 and warm period from November 1994 through October 1995 in the U.K. Over this period, the mean Central England temperature was 1.6 °C above the 1961–1990 normal, representing the highest mean 12-month temperature since the start of the Central England temperature record in 1659. The study is distinguished by its breadth of coverage, for it includes tertiary sectors and activities. Although impacts in tertiary activities are often not included in assessments of the potential impacts of climatic change, many of these activities are very important to the U.K. economy, and therefore even a small perturbation in output due to a weather extreme can have significant implications for the economy as a whole. The activities and sectors studied include energy consumption, retailing and manufacturing, construction and buildings, tourism, health, human behaviour, and fires. Both negative and positive impacts were incurred within most sectors. Net positive impacts (to the general public) were found convincingly for energy consumption and health, and clear negative impacts for buildings insurance and fires. Sectors which show clear differences in their response to winter and summer warm anomalies are energy consumption, tourism and health (greater sensitivity to winter anomalies) and buildings insurance and fires (greater sensitivity to summer anomalies). Changes in sensitivity to climate extremes may have occurred over time, and a comparison of impacts of the 1995 anomalous weather with the unusually warm dry period of 1975–1976 is approached for several series.

COMMODIFYING THE ATMOSPHERE: ‘PENNIES FROM HEAVEN’?*

Abstract The atmosphere may be the most valuable resource on Earth and is worth orders of magnitude more to society than it costs as a hazard. However, the atmosphere, and information about the atmosphere, are increasingly being transformed from being considered as part of a global commons to being conceived of as a global commodity to be bought and sold. There are three basic types of atmospheric commodity: firstly, the material atmosphere itself; secondly, the physical properties of the atmosphere; and thirdly, data or information or predictions about the atmosphere. The global expenditure on national meteorological and climatological services and research has now been surpassed by the value of new economic instruments such as weather derivatives and climate emissions trading. Atmospheric scientists, climatologists and physical geographers need to be critically aware of what the consequences, both positive and negative, of these developments for science and society might be. This is particularly the case as climate change is increasingly providing new discourses for companies and governments to exploit as the atmosphere becomes a tradable green resource. This paper attempts to construct an initial critical framework of analysis drawing from broader literatures on the commodification of nature.

The use of geographic information systems in climatology and meteorology, COST719

No permission to reproduce or utilise the contents of this book by any means is necessary, other than in the case of images, diagrams or other material from other copyright holders. In such cases permission of the copyright holders is required ; European Co-operation in the field of Scientific and Technical Research.

A COMPARISON BETWEEN SPATIAL WINTER INDICES AND EXPENDITURE ON WINTER ROAD MAINTENANCE

The relationship between winter road maintenance (WRM) expenditure and winter weather severity is examined for Scotland. Different approaches to calculating regional winter severity are compared (mean regional, Theissen polygon based, and kriging with external drift). Variables examined were mean winter maximum temperature, number of ground frosts, and number of days with snow lying at 09Z. These were also combined into a modified Hulme winter index (mHWI). A comparison of the regional winter severity with expenditure indicated that geostatistics produced the best estimates of regional winter severity. The geostatistical procedures are discussed and potential problems are highlighted. Cross-validation revealed that using kriging with altitude as external drift estimated maximum temperatures well, however the other variables could be better estimated. Results of the analysis of expenditure and winter severity for Scotland indicate that winter severity is a plausible secondary variable when attempting to explain temporal differences in regional expenditure. The relationship between regional expenditure and winter severity across regions is less significant, but still useful. Regional expenditure responds very differently to changes in winter severity for each region, and base levels of expenditure also vary widely.

Ambulance call-outs and response times in Birmingham and the impact of extreme weather and climate change

Although there has been some research on the impact of extreme weather on the number of ambulance call-out incidents, especially heat waves, there has been very little research on the impact of cold weather on ambulance call-outs and response times. In the UK, there is a target response rate of 75% of life threatening incidents (Category A) that must be responded to within 8 min. This paper compares daily air temperature data with ambulance call-out data for Birmingham over a 5-year period (2007–2011). A significant relationship between extreme weather and increased ambulance call-out and response times can clearly be shown. Both hot and cold weather have a negative impact on response times. During the heat wave of August 2003, the number of ambulance call-outs increased by up to a third. In December 2010 (the coldest December for more than 100 years), the response rate fell below 50% for 3 days in a row (18 December–20 December 2010) with a mean response time of 15 min. For every reduction of air temperature by 1°C there was a reduction of 1.3% in performance. Improved weather forecasting and the take up of adaptation measures, such as the use of winter tyres, are suggested for consideration as management tools to improve ambulance response resilience during extreme weather. Also it is suggested that ambulance response times could be used as part of the syndromic surveillance system at the Health Protection Agency.

The use of Geographic Information Systems in climatology and meteorology: COST 719

The COST Action 719 started in 2001 and presently 20 European countries are participating. The main objectives of the Action are to establish interfaces between GIS and meteorological data, assess the availability, contents and accessibility of meteorological and climatological data sets and encourage and foster European co-operation. The tasks are carried out within three working groups concentrated on issues such as data access and availability, methods of spatial interpolation and developing recommendations for standardised GIS applications. The applications that have been adopted mainly focus on three parameters, i.e. precipitation, temperature and energy balance for which three demonstration projects have been formulated. It is expected that the Action will result in recommendations for better and more cost-effective production of state-of-the-art meteorological and climatological information. Also an improvement of the co-operation between European countries in the application of GIS in the field of meteorology, climatology and environmental sciences should be achieved together with better-trained personnel within the operational and scientific divisions of national meteorological services. Additionally, the development of a visualisation system for climate data sets for internet applications is under preparation. This paper provides information concerning the work in progress on the demonstration projects made within COST 719.