John E. Wennberg

Small Area Variations in Health Care Delivery: A population-based health information system can guide planning and regulatory decision-making

Health information about total populations is a prerequisite for sound decision-making and planning in the health care field. Experience with a population-based health data system in Vermont reveals that there are wide variations in resource input, utilization of services, and expenditures among neighboring communities. Results show prima facie inequalities in the input of resources that are associated with income transfer from areas of lower expenditure to areas of higher expenditure. Variations in utilization indicate that there is considerable uncertainty about the effectiveness of different levels of aggregate, as well as specific kinds of, health services. Informed choices in the public regulation of the health care sector require knowledge of the relation between medical care systems and the population groups being served, and they should take into account the effect of regulation on equality and effectiveness. When population-based data on small areas are available, decisions to expand hospitals, currently based on institutional pressures, can take into account a communitys regional ranking in regard to bed input and utilization rates. Proposals by hospitals for unit price increases and the regulation of the actuarial rate of insurance programs can be evaluated in terms of per capita expenditures and income transfer between geographically defined populations. The PSROs can evaluate the wide variations in level of services among residents of different communities. Coordinated exercise of the authority vested in these regulatory programs may lead to explicit strategies to deal directly with inequality and uncertainty concerning the effectiveness of health care delivery. Population-based health information systems, because they can provide information on the performance of health care systems and regulatory agencies, are an important step in the development of rational public policy for health.

Small-Area Variations in the Use of Common Surgical Procedures: An International Comparison of New England, England, and Norway

We examined the incidence of seven common surgical procedures in seven hospital service areas in southern Norway, in 21 districts in the West Midlands of the United Kingdom, and in the 18 most heavily populated hospital service areas in Vermont, Maine, and Rhode Island. Although surgical rates were higher in the New England states than in the United Kingdom or Norway, there was no greater degree of variability in the rates of surgery among the service areas within the three New England states. Hernia repair was more variable in England (P less than 0.05) and hysterectomy in Norway (P less than 0.05) than in the other countries. There was consistency among countries in the rank order of variability for most procedures: tonsillectomy, hemorrhoidectomy, hysterectomy, and prostatectomy varied more from area to area than did appendectomy, hernia repair, or cholecystectomy. The degree of variation generally appeared to be more characteristic of the procedure than of the country in which it was performed. Thus, differences among countries in the methods of organizing and financing care appear to have little relation to the intrinsic variability in the incidence of common surgical procedures among hospital service areas in these countries. Despite the differences in average rates of use, the degrees of controversy and uncertainty concerning the indications for these procedures seem to be similar among clinicians in all three countries.

Patient-re ported complications and follow-up treatment after radical prostatectomy

To estimate the probabilities of complications and follow-up treatment, a sample of Medicare patients who underwent radical prostatectomy (1988 through 1990) was surveyed by mail, telephone, and personal interview. Respondents reported their current status with respect to continence and sexual function as well as post-surgical treatments they had had to treat residual or recurrent cancer or surgical complications. Over 30 percent reported currently wearing pads or clamps to deal with wetness; over 40 percent said they drip urine when they cough or when their bladders are full; 23 percent reported daily wetting of more than a few drops. About 60 percent of patients reported having no full or partial erections since their surgery, and only 11 percent had any erections sufficient for intercourse during the month prior to the survey. Six percent had surgery after the radical prostatectomy to treat incontinence; 15 percent had treatments or used devices to help with sexual function; 20 percent report having had post-surgical treatment for urethral strictures. In addition 16 percent, 22 percent, and 28 percent reported follow-up treatment for cancer (radiation or androgen deprivation therapy) at two, three, and four years after radical prostatectomy. These estimates of complication and follow-up treatment rates are generally higher, and almost certainly more representative for older men, than estimates previously published. Patients and physicians may want to weight heavily the complications and need for follow-up treatments when considering radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer.

Mortality and reoperation after open and transurethral resection of the prostate for benign prostatic hyperplasia

As part of an ongoing effort to evaluate alternative treatments for benign prostatic hyperplasia, we compared the outcomes of transurethral resection of the prostate with those of open prostatectomy. Men undergoing prostatectomy in Denmark (n = 36,703), Oxfordshire, England (n = 5284), and Manitoba, Canada (n = 12,090), were identified retrospectively through administrative data and followed for up to eight years. The cumulative percentage of patients undergoing a second prostatectomy was substantially higher after transurethral than after open prostatectomy (12.0 vs. 4.5 percent in Denmark, 12.0 vs. 1.8 percent in Oxfordshire, and 15.5 vs. 4.2 percent in Manitoba). The long-term age-specific mortality rates associated with transurethral prostatectomy as compared with open prostatectomy were also elevated in each country. The data on 1650 Canadian patients were used to investigate the contribution of coexisting morbid conditions to the elevated risk of death. The relative risk was 1.45 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.15 to 1.83) before risk adjustment and 1.45 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.15 to 1.84) after adjustment; the higher mortality was seen among low-risk as well as high-risk patients. These findings suggest that transurethral prostatectomy is less effective in overcoming urinary obstruction than the open operation. Our data also raise the possibility that transurethral prostatectomy may result in higher long-term mortality, although we cannot rule out potential confounding effects of unmeasured characteristics of patients.

Professional uncertainty and the problem of supplier-induced demand

This paper discusses the puzzling problem of large differences in per capita use of certain common surgical procedures among neighboring populations, which by all available measures are quite similar in need for and access to services. The evidence reviewed here supports the hypothesis that variations occur to a large extent because of differences among physicians in their evaluation of patients (diagnosis) or in their belief in the value of the procedures for meeting patient needs (therapy). This hypothesis, which we call the professional uncertainty hypothesis, is germane to current controversies concerning the nature and extent of supplier influence on the demand for medical services. It is also important because of its implications for health regulatory policy. Our plan is to (1) review the relevance of the hypotheses for the supplier-induced demand controversy; (2) review the epidemiologic evidence on the nature and causes of variation; (3) examine patterns of use of common surgical procedures to illustrate the importance of supplier influence on utilization; and (4) consider some of the implications of the professional uncertainty hypotheses for public policy.

Outcomes after displaced fractures of the femoral neck. A meta-analysis of one hundred and six published reports.

Methods of meta-analysis, a technique for the combination of data from multiple sources, were applied to analyze 106 reports of the treatment of displaced fractures of the femoral neck. Two years or less after primary internal fixation of a displaced fracture of the femoral neck, a non-union had developed in 33 per cent of the patients and avascular necrosis, in 16 per cent. The rate of performance of a second operation within two years ranged from 20 to 36 per cent after internal fixation and from 6 to 18 per cent after hemiarthroplasty (relative risk, 2.6; 95 per cent confidence interval, 1.4 to 4.6). Conversion to an arthroplasty was the most common reoperation after internal fixation and accounted for about two-thirds of these procedures. The remaining one-third of the reoperations were for removal of the implant or revision of the internal fixation. For the patients who had had a hemiarthroplasty, the most common reoperations were conversion to a total hip replacement, removal or revision of the prosthesis, and debridement of the wound. Although we observed an increase in the rate of mortality at thirty days after primary hemiarthroplasty compared with that after primary internal fixation, the difference was not significant (p = 0.22) and did not persist beyond three months. The absolute difference in perioperative mortality between the two groups was small. An anterior operative approach for arthroplasty consistently was associated with a lower rate of mortality at two months than was a posterior approach. Some reports showed promising results after total hip replacement for displaced fractures of the femoral neck; however, randomized clinical trials are still needed to establish the value of this treatment.

Unwarranted variations in healthcare delivery: implications for academic medical centres.

Everyday clinical practice is characterised by wide variations that cannot be explained by illness severity or patient preference. Professor Wennberg examines the causes for these variations and suggests ways to remedy the situation Academic medicine has had only limited success in improving the scientific basis of everyday clinical practice, even within the walls of its own hospitals. Patterns of practice among academic medical centres—as among other institutions—are often idiosyncratic and unscientific, and local medical opinion and local supply of resources are more important than science in determining how medical care is delivered. In short, after nearly 100 years of academic medicine as we know it, much of medicine in the United States remains empirical. The evaluative clinical sciences—those disciplines whose role in medicine is to evaluate medical theory, understand patient preferences, and improve systems—are capable of improving the scientific basis of clinical practice and warrant high priority in the national research agenda and full adoption into medical school curriculums. These sciences are essential to the development of organised healthcare systems in the 21st century, not least because they expose unwarranted variations in care and can be used to remedy them. #### Summary box I will begin with a summary of the facts of unwarranted variations in clinical practice, derived from the Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care project, a US national study of traditional (fee for service) Medicare. The atlas project reports on the rates of …

Influence of Patient Preferences and Local Health System Characteristics on the Place of Death

OBJECTIVE: To examine the degree to which variation in place of death is explained by differences in the characteristics of patients, including preferences for dying at home, and by differences in the characteristics of local health systems.

Patient reactions to a program designed to facilitate patient participation in treatment decisions for benign prostatic hyperplasia.

Patients often want considerable information about their conditions, and enhanced patient participation might reduce unwanted practice variation and improve medical decisions. The authors assessed how men with benign prostatic hyperplasia reacted to an educational program designed to facilitate participation in decisionmaking, and how strongly ratings of their symptom state and the prospect of complications predicted their treatment choice. A prospective cohort study was conducted in three hospital-based urology practices: two in prepaid group practices, and one Veterans Administration clinic. Four hundred twenty-one men with symptomatic benign prostatic hyperplasia without prior prostatectomy or benign prostatic hyperplasia complications were enrolled, and 373 provided usable ratings. Subjects participated in an interactive videodisc-based shared decisionmaking program about benign prostatic hyperplasia and its treatment options, prostatectomy, and “watchful waiting.” They rated the length, clarity, balance, and value of the program and were followed for 3 months to determine if they underwent surgery. Patients rated the program as generally clear, informative, and balanced. Across all three sites, 77% of patients were very positive and 16% were generally positive about the programs usefulness in making a treatment decision. Logistic models predicting choice of surgical treatment documented the independent importance of negative ratings of the current symptom state (odds ratio 7.0, 95% confidence interval 2.9–16.6), as well as the prospect of postoperative sexual dysfunction (odds ratio 0.20, 95% confidence interval 0.08–0.48) in decisionmaking. Patients rated the Shared Decisionmaking Program very positively and made decisions consistent with their assessed preferences. These results suggest that patients can be helped to participate in treatment decisions, and support a randomized trial of the Shared Decisionmaking Program.

Hospital use and mortality among Medicare beneficiaries in Boston and New Haven.

We compared rates of hospital use and mortality in fiscal year 1985 among Medicare enrollees in Boston and New Haven, Connecticut. Adjusted rates of discharge, readmission, length of stay, and reimbursement were 47, 29, 15, and 79 percent higher, respectively, in Boston; 40 percent of Bostons deaths occurred in hospitals as compared with 32 percent of New Havens. High-variation medical conditions (those for which there is little consensus about the need for hospitalization) accounted for most of these differences. By contrast, discharge rates for low-variation medical conditions (which tend to reflect the incidence of disease) were similar. Inpatient case-fatality rates were lower in Boston than in New Haven (RR = 0.85; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.78 to 0.92), but when all deaths (regardless of place of death) were measured, the mortality rates in Boston and New Haven were nearly identical (RR = 0.99; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.93 to 1.05). We conclude that the lower rate of hospital use by Medicare enrollees in New Haven was not associated with a higher overall mortality rate. Population-based as well as hospital-based statistics are needed to evaluate differences in hospital mortality rates for high-variation medical conditions.