John F. Coales

Comparisons of practical hierarchical control methods for interconnected dynamical systems

This paper gives a brief survey of possible methods which can be used for the practical control of large interconnected dynamical systems. The development is in two parts, i.e. optimal methods and suboptimal methods. In the first part, a brief outline is given of infeasible methods like Goal co-ordination and the Takara-Sage algorithm. In the general study of infeasible methods, Tamuras three-level method, Tamuras time-delay method and Pearsons pseudo-model co-ordination method are also included. It is seen that both the algorithms of Tamura as well as the Takahara-Sage method are particularly suited to systems with slow dynamics whereas Pearsons pseudo-model co-ordination method could be used advantageously for systems with fast dynamics. A practical example is then given of optimal traffic control using an infeasible method, in this case the time-delay method of Tamura. The main conclusion to emerge from this part is that optimal methods will require multiple processors for on-line dynamic optimization although for systems with slow dynamics like the traffic example, fairly large problems could nevertheless be tackled using only one processor. There are certain classes of systems for which it may be possible to obtain virtually optimal control using only a single processor even when the number of subsystems is very large. One such class of problems is of serially connected dynamical systems. In the second part of this paper a suboptimal approach is described for the control of serial systems and the method is demonstrated using river pollution as an example. Finally, a new method is developed which enables a significant improvement to be made for serial systems with conflicts between the subsystems and an example illustrates this approach.

A heuristic approach to the hierarchical control of multivariable serially connected dynamical systems

A heuristic approach is developed for the control of serially connected dynamical systems with and without time delays between the subsystems. The approach enables near optimal control to be achieved and has particularly modest computational requirements. This is illustrated in a number of examples where the overall optimal and the heuristic strategy are compared by digital simulation. Finally, a method is developed for calculating bounds on the suboptimality of the strategy and a numerical example illustrates the approach.

The Development of a Simplified Model for a Developed Industrial Economy with Special Reference to Unemployment

Abstract Although the gross domestic product (GDP) is rising in all members of the Organisation for Economic Development (OECD), they are all having great difficulty in reducing unemployment to much below 10% of the workforce. Thirty years ago it was not possible to develop a dynamic model of a national economy because it involved too many variables and the statistical data were generally inadequate. Since then methods have been developed for reducing the number of essential variables required in the modelling of very complex dynamic systems and also in the manipulation of the statistics of very large sets of variables thereby reducing the number of variables that have to be acommodated. Recently a new and very much simpler model of a national economy has been developed using these methods. This model has been tested for the rurtional economy of the United Kingdom using statistical data for the years 1989-92 published in the Annual Abstract of Statistics 1994 and some other government publications. A number of conclusions have been derived from this investigation. of which the most important is that money must be clearly distinguished from goods and services. which are the only real wealth in the economy. This in turn results in a rigid identity for the total money circulating in the community. which must equal the total wages earned on the one hand and the total value of goods and services provided. the Gross Domestic Product. in return for those wages on the other. This leads to the conclusion that in the highly developed industrial economies i.e. the members of the OECD, the only viable way to reduce unemployment to 1% - 2% of the available labour force is by reducing the amount of income-tax paid by the poorer households. The probable figures are then calculated for the UK economy based on the Annual A bstract of Statistics 1994.

The Relation Between Creative Management and Control Technology in Conflict Resolution

Abstract Development of this thesis has arisen from two prior Papers: Creative Management in Conflict Resolution in Total Enviroment. Proc. European Management and Cybernetics Research Institute, Vienna, April 1988, and Further Applied Studies in Creative Management of Potential Conflict at National and International Levels. Budapest, June 1988. These two Papers proposed and gave examples of conflict resolution achieved by the application to total management control networks and decision structures the following new principles - In addition to the present systems of Tele-supervisory controls andapplications using only power and resources as the control determinants, the following control determinants and creative methods to achieve conflict resolution and resultant steady state stability should be used in the total regimes of neural and external cybernetic network control systems and application methodologies. Control determinants. Additional inputs to cybernetic network to existing Power and Resources only on a Deterministal Basis. Integrity - Truth; Environment - Beauty; Moral Standards - Goodness. Control methodology and input decision making: Tele -supervisory - Space; Time Control - Time. In accord with A. N. Whitehead, Notions of Creative Mankind in the Environment of a space time continuum. Whilst these are broad concepts the high rate of modern information and Telecommunication systems makes their potential as man-system cybernetics network advantageously manipulable and creative. In the present state of the art, the most effective demonstration of the potential is from case studies analysed on the basis of these stated principles in relation to past successes of Creative Management with a target of making the methodology universally applicable with appropriate adaptation. Case studies will in this paper outline more fully illustration of the proposed cybernetic and systems engineering and technology so that further research development and application can follow.

Creative management and stability in a total environment

Abstract The Paper is planned to view and suggest future direction of stability in relation to peace studies as generated by SWIIS Group of IFAC from 1981 to present. See Review and References. The arguments are advanced by graphical methods developed and discussed in the quoted papers and in reviews of ‘Management Complexity’ discussed in the Proc. Institute of Measurement and Control U.K. with major assesment of Systems and Government by Stafford Beer and Jeremy Bray. A graphical method of analysis and sythesis in relation to the generation of stability. Management by cybernetic and systems methods has been chosen as compressing for critical observation the problem solving proposed. The most unique feature is the revival of the parallel determination of the good and the right in Management decisions to inject stability structures a priority in adaptive management action. The strong compression of treatment has been thought valuable in increasing the perspective of planning for increasing adaptive stability.

The relation of management to control technology—further applied studies in creative management of potential conflict at international levels

Abstract Following the paper Coales and Seaman to European Management Systems and Cybernetics Research, Vienna University, 1988 — Creative Management in Total Environment — the thesis consist of including in addition to Power and Resources the fundamental categories of Integrity (Truth), Aesthetics (Beauty) and Ethics (Good Conduct) as the primary stabilising inputs to ensure stability. In all decision making and control adaptive processes and network analysis; this thesis should be adopted as a basis for conflict resolution. The use of logic in the fully adaptive network categories of cybernetics and total creative management can be achieved by control and adaptation using techniques of the combination, mathematically and statistically of measurement control and logic; probability mathematics; Stochastic adaptive management; Actuarial and legal process. These methods can be applied in all Individual, Corporate and National/International Management Networks on a continual adaptive basis with Legal Reinforcement. These proposals would conform with the principles of Creative management and Control using all existing and developing technology. The additional active methods proposed beyond the major principles defined in our first paper include: the inclusion in the Cybernetic Analysis and adaptive action the examination of inevitable destabilising forces and systems on both a feed forward and feed back basis. For instance, in the process and content aspects of creative management analysis of conflict resolution, bureaucratic vested interest take over and convert a number of the five primary inputs proposed and interpose AB Initio, a number of destabilising forces e.g. vested commercial interest in arms control and ineffective control and supervision of monetary usages and network of quality control essential to the success and more effective aspects of resolution. A strong dichotomy is examined in the parallel modes of generation and dissemination of information and creative programme between the current modes of generation. Politics — Defence Policy — Diplomacy. Trade — Technology — Quality Assurance and Educational Development in Market Creation for Positive Progress. Legal and control modes appropriate to modern Cybernetics will have appropriate attention with appropriate outline case studies.

Expected Global Needs in the 21st Century for Qualified Engineers Both in Quantity and Quality

Summary From statistics on the employment of engineers, technologists and scientists in the United Kingdom a measure is obtained of the dependence of growth of gross national product on the availability of qualified engineers. It is deduced that by the year 2000 at least 8% of the world population will need to be employed in the “productive industries” and that if world population is 6000 million this implies a global need for 24 million qualified engineers and technologists compared with between 5 and 10 million at the present time.