John Forrer

U.S. ECONOMIC SANCTIONS: An Empirical Study

Using a gravity model, we conduct an empirical analysis of the impact of U.S. economic sanctions on U.S. trade with target countries and on third countries. Our findings show that the impact on U.S. trade is very sensitive to how the sanctioned country list is identified and selected. We find no significant impact of U.S. economic sanctions on trade between the United States and countries that are subject to selective sanctions. For only countries subject to comprehensive sanctions have we found a significant reduction in bilateral trade; and these same sanctions increased trade between target countries and the EU or Japan. Using a sample that includes only the formerly planned economies that were long the target of U.S. economic sanctions in recent history, our results show that U.S. economic sanctions have a significant impact on U.S. exports, imports, and total trade with these countries, and these effects have lingered for more than a decade after the Cold War had ended.

How Do US Economic Sanctions Affect EU's Trade with Target Countries?

We investigate the impact of US economic sanctions on EUs trade using a panel data approach expressed in a two-level framework. Both multilateral and unilateral sanctions involving the US and the EU have a negative impact on EU trade (total, imports and exports). We argue that unilateral sanctions, if extensive in nature, would have a depressing impact on target countries’ trade, especially in the stage after sanctions have been imposed. Over time, both multilateral and unilateral sanctions lead to an increase in a target countrys exports to the EU, lending support to the third-country effect of sanctions.

From Certification to Supply Chain Strategy: An Analytical Framework for Enhancing Tropical Forest Governance

Created as a market-based instrument to deter tropical deforestation, the certification program of the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) has experienced tremendous growth over the past two decades. We argue that using a comprehensive conceptual framework is needed to assess the successes and limitations of FSC certification. We introduce a supply chain strategy framework to address three questions: (a) What are the requisite supply chain conditions for certification programs to be successful? (b) How well does the tropical timber sector meet these conditions? (c) What actions could make FSC certification efforts more effective? We conclude that some conditions necessary for a successful supply chain strategy are not found in the tropical timber industry. As a result, FSC certification faces severe limitations as a governance tool for tropical forest conservation. We suggest that a collaborative approach to creating markets for certified timber will improve FSC certificate program effectiveness.

Private Finance Initiative—The Theory Behind Practice

Abstract Since its launch in 1992, the UKs Private Finance Initiative (PFI) is being used more often as an innovative means for governments to expand public infrastructures and services. The practical advantages and disadvantages of PFI have been considered, but theoretical justifications for PFI remain unexamined. Compared with conventional capital budgeting practice, we examined four theoretical justifications: the competitive market model, a new principal-agent relationship, shifting of risk, and the accountability problem. We found some theoretical support for PFI; however, some questions still remain about the theory and practice of PFI.

Not Your Father’s Public Administration

Abstract Globalization, devolution, outsourcing, multi-sector partnerships and networks, and a host of other social transformations are creating new challenges for schools of public administration and policy. These changes in the field demand greater focus on the inter-sectoral delivery of public goods and services, on globalization, and on the leadership of networks, but the core curricula in graduate public administration and policy programs have not yet changed enough to meet those demands. Until the curricula in these programs reflect the new realities of public management and the challenge of public accountability, graduates of these programs may not be fully able to meet the challenges facing today’s public leaders.

Measuring Vulnerability to U.S. Foreign Economic Sanctions

AbstractThis study concentrates on the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to demonstrate a way to improve the consensus forecasts of interest rates. It promotes the notion that, in improving the survey forecast accuracy of a variable, one should investigate the usefulness of the predictive information contained in the survey forecasts of other theoretically relevant variables. This idea has been applied to the SPF forecasts of the 3-month Treasury-bill rate, which are shown to be one-sided for 2001.1-2003.4. We improve the accuracy of these forecasts by exploiting the predictive information contained in the SPF forecasts of inflation and output growth. We thus recommend that the possible improvement should be investigated before such interest rate forecasts are utilized for decision-making.