John H. Page

History of chronic comorbidity and risk of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia in cancer patients not receiving G-CSF prophylaxis

BACKGROUND Chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia (FN) is a clinically important complication that affects patient outcome by delaying chemotherapy doses or reducing dose intensity. Risk of FN depends on chemotherapy- and patient-level factors. We sought to determine the effects of chronic comorbidities on risk of FN. DESIGN We conducted a cohort study to examine the association between a variety of chronic comorbidities and risk of FN in patients diagnosed with six types of cancer (non-Hodgkin lymphoma and breast, colorectal, lung, ovary, and gastric cancer) from 2000 to 2009 who were treated with chemotherapy at Kaiser Permanente Southern California, a large managed care organization. We excluded those patients who received primary prophylactic granulocyte colony-stimulating factor. History of comorbidities and FN events were identified using electronic medical records. Cox models adjusting for propensity score, stratified by cancer type, were used to determine the association between comorbid conditions and FN. Models that additionally adjusted for cancer stage, baseline neutrophil count, chemotherapy regimen, and dose reduction were also evaluated. RESULTS A total of 19 160 patients with mean age of 60 years were included; 963 (5.0%) developed FN in the first chemotherapy cycle. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.30 (1.07-1.57)], congestive heart failure [HR = 1.43 (1.00-1.98)], HIV infection [HR = 3.40 (1.90-5.63)], autoimmune disease [HR = 2.01 (1.10-3.33)], peptic ulcer disease [HR = 1.57 (1.05-2.26)], renal disease [HR = 1.60 (1.21-2.09)], and thyroid disorder [HR = 1.32 (1.06-1.64)] were all associated with a significantly increased FN risk. CONCLUSIONS These results provide evidence that history of several chronic comorbidities increases risk of FN, which should be considered when managing patients during chemotherapy.

History of chronic comorbidity and risk of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia in patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma not receiving granulocyte colony-stimulating factor prophylaxis

Abstract We conducted a cohort study to examine the association between a wide variety of chronic comorbidities and risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) in patients with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) from 2000 to 2009 treated with chemotherapy at Kaiser Permanente Southern California. History of comorbidities and FN events were identified using electronic medical records. Cox model adjusting for propensity score was used to determine the association between a comorbid condition and FN. Models that additionally adjusted for cancer stage, baseline absolute neutrophil count, chemotherapy regimen and dose reduction were also evaluated. A total of 2480 patients with NHL were included, and 60% received CHOP/R-CHOP (cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, prednisone, with or without rituximab). In total, 236 (9.5%) patients developed FN in the first chemotherapy cycle. Anemia (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 1.6, 95% confidence interval [1.2–2.2]), HIV infection (HR = 3.8 [2.0–6.7]) and rheumatoid diseases (HR = 2.4 [1.3–4.0]) were associated with significantly increased risk of FN. These results provide evidence that chronic comorbidity increases the risk of FN.

Validation of claims algorithms for Progression to Metastatic cancer in Patients with Breast, non-small cell lung, and colorectal cancer

Background Validated algorithms for identifying progression to metastatic cancer could permit the use of administrative claims databases for research in this area. Objective To identify simple algorithms that could accurately detect cancer progression to metastatic breast, non-small cell lung, and colorectal cancer (CRC) using medical and pharmacy claims data. Methods Adults with stage I–III breast, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), or CRC in the Geisinger Health System from 2004 to 2011 were selected. Evidence of progression was extracted via manual chart review as the reference standard. In addition to secondary malignancy diagnosis (ICD-9 code for metastases), diagnoses, procedures, and treatments were selected with clinician input as indicators of cancer progression. Random forests models provided variable importance scores. In addition to codes for secondary malignancy, several more complex algorithms were constructed and performance measures calculated. Results Among those with breast cancer [17/502 (3.4%) progressed], the performance of a secondary malignancy code was suboptimal [sensitivity: 64.7%; specificity: 86.0%; positive predictive value (PPV): 13.9; negative predictive value (NPV): 98.6%]; requiring malignancy at another site or initiation of immunotherapy increased PPV and specificity but decreased sensitivity. For NSCLC [61/236 (25.8%) progressed], codes for secondary malignancy alone (PPV: 47.4%; NPV: 84.8%; sensitivity: 60.7%; specificity: 76.6%) performed similarly or better than more complex algorithms. For CRC [33/276 (12.0%) progressed], secondary malignancy codes had good specificity (92.7%) and NPV (92.3%) but low sensitivity (42.4%) and PPV (43.8%); an algorithm with change in chemotherapy increased sensitivity but decreased other metrics. Conclusion Selected algorithms performed similarly to the presence of a secondary tumor diagnosis code, with low sensitivity/PPV and higher specificity/NPV. Accurate identification of cancer progression likely requires verification through chart review.

Incidence of anemia in patients diagnosed with solid tumors receiving chemotherapy, 2010-2013.

Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate and characterize the risk of anemia during the course of chemotherapy among patients with five common types of solid tumors. Patients and methods Patients diagnosed with incident cancers of breast, lung, colon/rectum, stomach, and ovary who received chemotherapy were identified from Kaiser Permanente Southern California Health Plan (2010–2012). All clinical data were collected from the health plan’s electronic medical records. Incidence proportions of patients developing anemia and 95% confidence intervals were calculated overall and by anemia severity and type, as well as by stage at cancer diagnosis, and by chemotherapy regimen and cycle. Results A total of 4,426 patients who received chemotherapy were included. Across cancers, 3,962 (89.5%) patients developed anemia during the course of chemotherapy (normocytic 85%, macrocytic 10%, microcytic 5%; normochromic 47%, hyperchromic 44%, hypochromic 9%). The anemia grades were distributed as follows: 58% were grade 1, 34% grade 2, 8% grade 3, and <1% grade 4. The incidence of grade 2+ anemia ranged from 26.3% in colorectal cancer patients to 59.2% in ovarian cancer patients. Incidence of grade 2+ anemia increased from 29% in stage I to 49% in stage IV. Incidence of grade 2+ anemia varied from 18.2% in breast cancer patients treated with cyclophosphamide + docetaxel regimen to 59.7% in patients with ovarian cancer receiving carboplatin + paclitaxel regimen. Conclusion The incidence of moderate-to-severe anemia (hemoglobin <10 g/dL) remained considerably high in patients with solid tumors receiving chemotherapy. The risk of anemia was greater in patients with distant metastasis.

Relationship between severity and duration of chemotherapy-induced neutropenia and risk of infection among patients with nonmyeloid malignancies

PurposeChemotherapy-induced neutropenia (CIN) may increase infection risk for cancer patients; however, there is limited understanding on the quantitative relationships between severity and duration of CIN and infection risk.MethodsThis study combined individual data from adult cancer patients receiving no granulocyte colony-stimulating factor during the first chemotherapy cycle in six trials. We used area over the curve (AOC) of absolute neutrophil count (ANC) time-response curve (below different thresholds) to measure the combined effect of severity and duration of CIN. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models quantified the hazard of first infection associated with duration of grade 4 or grade 3/4 CIN and the hazard associated with AOC.ResultsWe analyzed data from 271 patients who had small cell lung cancer, non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, head and neck cancer, or breast cancer; 63.8 % of the patients had advanced cancer, and 77.5 % received chemotherapy regimens with high risk of febrile neutropenia. In the first cycle, 18.8 % of the patients had infection-related hospitalizations. Each additional day patients had grade 3/4 or grade 4 CIN was associated with 28 % (95 % CI 7, 51 %) and 30 % (95 % CI 10, 54 %) increased risk of infection-related hospitalization, respectively. Each unit increase in AOC (day × 109/L ANC), with threshold of ANC < 0.5 × 109/L, was associated with a significantly increased risk of infection-related hospitalization (hazard ratio 1.98; 95 % CI 1.35, 2.90).ConclusionsInfection risk increases dramatically with each additional day of grade 3 or 4 CIN. Interventions limiting CIN severity and duration are of critical importance to reduce infection risk in cancer patients receiving chemotherapy.

A Study of Novel Febrile Neutropenia Risk Factors Related to Bone Marrow or Immune Suppression, Barrier Function, and Bacterial Flora

Background: Previously identified patient-level risk factors for chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia (FN) indicate several potential underlying pathogenic mechanisms, including bone marrow suppression, impaired neutrophil function, or disturbances of barrier function. This study evaluated whether additional clinical characteristics related to these pathogenic mechanisms were risk factors for FN. Patients and Methods: The study population included patients diagnosed with non-Hodgkins lymphoma or breast, lung, colorectal, ovarian, or gastric cancer between 2000 and 2009 at Kaiser Permanente Southern California and treated with myelosuppressive chemotherapy. Those who received prophylactic granulocyte colony-stimulating factor or antibiotics were excluded. Potential risk factors of interest included surgery, radiation therapy, selected dermatologic/mucosal conditions, and use of antibiotics and corticosteroids. All data were collected using electronic medical records. Multivariable Cox models were used to evaluate associations between these factors and risk of FN in the first chemotherapy cycle, and adjusted using propensity score-based functions. Results: A total of 15,971 patients were included. Of these, 4.3% developed FN in the first chemotherapy cycle. Use of corticosteroids was significantly associated with increased risk of FN (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.53; 95% CI, 1.17-1.98). Selected dermatologic/mucosal conditions and intravenous antibiotic use were marginally associated with increased risk of FN (aHR, 1.40; 95% CI, 0.98-1.93, and 1.35; 95% CI, 0.97-1.87, respectively). Surgery, radiation therapy, and oral antibiotic use were not statistically significantly associated with FN. Conclusions: Dermatologic or mucosal conditions that might affect barrier integrity and use of corticosteroids and intravenous antibiotics prior to chemotherapy may increase risk of FN and should be considered in prophylaxis use and FN prediction modeling.

Value of incorporating newly identified risk factors into risk prediction for chemotherapy‐induced febrile neutropenia

Several comorbidities have recently been shown to affect risk of chemotherapy‐induced febrile neutropenia (FN). Here, we evaluated the added predictive value of these comorbidities beyond established FN risk factors. A retrospective cohort study was conducted among adult patients diagnosed with cancer and treated with chemotherapy at Kaiser Permanente Southern California between 2000 and 2009. The study cohort was equally split into training and validation datasets to develop and evaluate the performance of FN risk prediction models in the first chemotherapy cycle. A reference model was developed based on the model proposed by Lyman et al (Cancer 2011;117:1917). A new model was developed by incorporating the newly identified comorbidities such as rheumatoid conditions and thyroid disorders into the reference model. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROCC), risk reclassification, and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to evaluate the potential improvement of FN risk prediction by incorporating comorbidities. A total of 15 279 patients were included; 4.2% experienced FN in the first chemotherapy cycle. Including comorbidities in FN risk prediction did not improve AUROCC (reference model 0.71 vs new model 0.72). A significant improvement in individual‐level FN risk prediction was indicated by IDI (P = .02). However, significant improvement in risk reclassification was not observed overall (although 6% of all patients were more accurately classified for their FN risk level, 5% were less accurately classified) or when examining predicted FN risk among patients who did and did not develop FN. Incorporating several new comorbidities into FN prediction led to improved FN risk prediction in the first chemotherapy cycle, although the observed improvements were small and might not be clinically relevant.