John H. Pedlar

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of North American Trees

ABSTRACT Currently predicted change in climate could strongly affect plant distributions during the next century. Here we determine the present-day climatic niches for 130 North American tree species. We then locate the climatic conditions of these niches on maps of predicted future climate, indicating where each species could potentially occur by the end of the century. A major unknown in this work is the extent to which populations of trees will actually track climate shifts through migration. We therefore present two extreme scenarios in which species either move entirely into future climatic niches or do not move out of their current niches. In the full-dispersal scenario, future potential ranges show decreases and increases in size, with an average decrease of 12% and a northward shift of 700 kilometers (km). In the no-dispersal scenario, potential ranges decrease in size by 58% and shift northward by 330 km. Major redistribution pressures appear to be in order under both dispersal scenarios.

Development and Testing of Canada-Wide Interpolated Spatial Models of Daily Minimum–Maximum Temperature and Precipitation for 1961–2003

Abstract The application of trivariate thin-plate smoothing splines to the interpolation of daily weather data is investigated. The method was used to develop spatial models of daily minimum and maximum temperature and daily precipitation for all of Canada, at a spatial resolution of 300 arc s of latitude and longitude, for the period 1961–2003. Each daily model was optimized automatically by minimizing the generalized cross validation. The fitted trivariate splines incorporated a spatially varying dependence on ground elevation and were able to adapt automatically to the large variation in station density over Canada. Extensive quality control measures were performed on the source data. Error estimates for the fitted surfaces based on withheld data across southern Canada were comparable to, or smaller than, errors obtained by daily interpolation studies elsewhere with denser data networks. Mean absolute errors in daily maximum and minimum temperature averaged over all years were 1.1° and 1.6°C, respectiv...

Pest Risk Maps for Invasive Alien Species: A Roadmap for Improvement

Pest risk maps are powerful visual communication tools to describe where invasive alien species might arrive, establish, spread, or cause harmful impacts. These maps inform strategic and tactical pest management decisions, such as potential restrictions on international trade or the design of pest surveys and domestic quarantines. Diverse methods are available to create pest risk maps, and can potentially yield different depictions of risk for the same species. Inherent uncertainties about the biology of the invader, future climate conditions, and species interactions further complicate map interpretation. If multiple maps are available, risk managers must choose how to incorporate the various representations of risk into their decisionmaking process, and may make significant errors if they misunderstand what each map portrays. This article describes the need for pest risk maps, compares pest risk mapping methods, and recommends future research to improve such important decision-support tools.

Customized Spatial Climate Models for North America

Over the past two decades, researchers at Natural Resources Canadas Canadian Forest Service, in collaboration with the Australian National University (ANU), Environment Canada (EC), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), have made a concerted effort to produce spatial climate products (i.e., spatial models and grids) covering both Canada and the United States for a wide variety of climate variables and time steps (from monthly to daily), and across a range of spatial resolutions. Here we outline the method used to generate the spatial models, detail the array of products available and how they may be accessed, briefly describe some of the usage and impact of the models, and discuss anticipated further developments. Our initial motivation in developing these models was to support forestry-related applications. They have since been utilized by a wider range of agencies and researchers. This article is intended to further raise awareness of the strengths and weaknesses of these clim...

Placing Forestry in the Assisted Migration Debate

Assisted migration (AM) id often presented as a strategy to save species that are imminently threatened by rapid climate change. This conception of AM, which has generated considerable controversy, typically proposes the movement of narrowly distributed, threatened species to suitable sites beyond their current range limits. However, existing North American forestry operations present an opportunity to practice AM on a larger scale, across millions of hectares, with a focus on moving populations of widely distributed, nonthreatened tree species within their current range limits. Despite these differences (and many others detailed herein), these two conceptions of AM have not been clearly distinguished in the literature, which has added confusion to recent dialogue and debate. Here, we aim to facilitate clearer communication on this topic by detailing this distinction and encouraging a more nuanced view of AM.

Beyond Traditional Hardiness Zones: Using Climate Envelopes to Map Plant Range Limits

ABSTRACT Traditional plant hardiness zone maps identify areas that are relatively homogeneous with respect to climatic conditions that affect plant survival. Plants are typically categorized according to the most northerly, and sometimes the most southerly, zone in which they can successfully grow. This approach suffers from a number of limitations, including the coarse spatial nature of the zones and the relatively unsystematic assignment of plants to zones. Here we propose using climate envelopes to map the potential ranges of plant species in North America in wild and cultivated settings. We have initiated a major data-gathering effort that currently includes over 1.8 million georeferenced observations for more than 4100 plant species. We demonstrate the approach using sugar maple (Acer saccharum) and show the ease with which predicted climate-change impacts can be incorporated into the models.

Influence of habitat and microhabitat on epigeal spider (Araneae) assemblages in four stand types

Studies based on presence/absence of a species may provide insight into habitat associations, allowing the distribution of species to be predicted across the landscape. Our objective was to characterise the epigeal spider fauna in three mature boreal forest types (conifer, mixedwood and deciduous) and a disturbed habitat (clearcut) to provide baseline data on the spider species inhabiting major forest types of boreal northwestern Ontario, Canada. Only spring-active epigeal spiders were considered for logistical reasons. We further identified the coarse woody debris structure and microhabitat characteristics within these stand types to try to refine our ability to predict the within-stand occurrence of spiders. We found the clearcut habitat strongly dominated by the Lycosidae with 55% of spiders represented by a single species, Pardosa moesta Banks. The forested habitats were more diverse, with web-building families forming a large component of the fauna and many species represented by only a few individuals. The spider composition of the deciduous stands (aspen and mixedwood) was very similar, and distinct from that of spruce stands. Species such as Agroeca ornata (Emerton) (Liocranidae) and Pirata montanus Emerton (Lycosidae) were strongly associated with deciduous leaf litter. Within the spruce stands, Agyneta olivacea (Emerton) (Linyphiidae) and Pardosa uintana Gertsch (Lycosidae) were associated with feathermoss rather than Sphagnum microhabitats. Many of the habitat associations observed at Rinker Lake do not conform well to those described in the taxonomic literature as typical for the species. Few associations with coarse woody debris or microhabitat attributes (other than ground cover type) were found.

Habitat islands, forest edge and spring-active invertebrate assemblages

Forest management results in forest patches of varying sizes within a clearcut matrix. The result is a large amount of edge habitat and many small patches across the landscape. Here we describe the spring-active epigeal spider and carabid fauna found at the forest-clearcut edge of spruce forest in northern Ontario, Canada. We include two types of edge: the forest-clearcut interface and the small habitat patches formed by forest residuals within the clearcut. Spring-active forest spiders and carabids appear little affected by adjacent clearcutting activity, and some forest species, such as Agyneta olivacea (Emetron), Diplocentria bidentata (Emetron) and Microneta viaria (Blackwall), are more prevalent at the forested edge. Common and abundant spider species were equally recorded in forest interior and forest edge. Generally, no invasion of open-habitat species was observed within the forest, although smaller forest patches may be at higher risk.

Towards an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts of invasive forest species

In this paper we provide an overview of an integrated approach to modelling the risks and impacts associated with non-indigenous forest pest species. This is a broad and important topic given the s...

Mapping forest composition from the Canadian National Forest Inventory and land cover classification maps

Canada’s National Forest Inventory (CanFI) provides coarse-grained, aggregated information on a large number of forest attributes. Though reasonably well suited for summary reporting on national forest resources, the coarse spatial nature of this data limits its usefulness in modeling applications that require information on forest composition at finer spatial resolutions. An alternative source of information is the land cover classification produced by the Canadian Forest Service as part of its Earth Observation for Sustainable Development of Forests (EOSD) initiative. This product, which is derived from Landsat satellite imagery, provides relatively high resolution coverage, but only very general information on forest composition (such as conifer, mixedwood, and deciduous). Here we link the CanFI and EOSD products using a spatial randomization technique to distribute the forest composition information in CanFI to the forest cover classes in EOSD. The resultant geospatial coverages provide randomized predictions of forest composition, which incorporate the fine-scale spatial detail of the EOSD product and agree in general terms with the species composition summaries from the original CanFI estimates. We describe the approach and provide illustrative results for selected major commercial tree species in Canada.