John J. Borkowski

Assessment Of Prey Vulnerability Through Analysis Of Wolf Movements And Kill Sites

Within predator-prey systems behavior can heavily influence spatial dynamics, and accordingly, the theoretical study of how spatial dynamics relate to stability within these systems has a rich history. However, our understanding of these behaviors in large mammalian systems is poorly developed. To address the relationship between predator selection patterns, prey density, and prey vulnerability, we quantified selection patterns for two fine-scale behaviors of a recovering wolf (Canis lupus) population in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, USA. Wolf spatial data were collected between November and May from 1998-1999 until 2001-2002. Over four winters, 244 aerial locations, 522 ground-based telemetry locations, 1287 km of movement data from snow tracking, and the locations of 279 wolf kill sites were recorded. There was evidence that elk (Cervus elaphus) and bison (Bison bison) densities had a weak effect on the sites where wolves traveled and made kills. Wolf movements showed a strong selection for geothermal areas, meadows, and areas near various types of habitat edges. Proximity to edge and habitat class also had a strong influence on the locations where elk were most vulnerable to predation. There was little evidence that wolf kill sites differed from the places where wolves traveled, indicating that elk vulnerability influenced where wolves selected to travel. Our results indicate that elk are more vulnerable to wolves under certain conditions and that wolves are capable of selecting for these conditions. As such, vulnerability plays a central role in predator-prey behavioral games and can potentially impact the systems to which they relate.

Prey Risk Allocation In A Grazing Ecosystem

Understanding the behaviorally mediated indirect effects of predators in ecosystems requires knowledge of predator-prey behavioral interactions. In predator-ungulate-plant systems, empirical research quantifying how predators affect ungulate group sizes and distribution, in the context of other influential variables, is particularly needed. The risk allocation hypothesis proposes that prey behavioral responses to predation risk depend on background frequencies of exposure to risk, and it can be used to make predictions about predator-ungulate-plant interactions. We determined non-predation variables that affect elk (Cervus elaphus) group sizes and distribution on a winter range in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) using logistic and log-linear regression on surveys of 513 1-km2 areas conducted over two years. Employing model selection techniques, we evaluated risk allocation and other a priori hypotheses of elk group size and distributional responses to wolf (Canis lupus) predation risk while accounting for influential non-wolf-predation variables. We found little evidence that wolves affect elk group sizes, which were strongly influenced by habitat type and hunting by humans. Following predictions from the risk allocation hypothesis, wolves likely created a more dynamic elk distribution in areas that they frequently hunted, as elk tended to move following wolf encounters in those areas. This response should dilute elk foraging pressure on plant communities in areas where they are frequently hunted by wolves. We predict that this should decrease the spatial heterogeneity of elk impacts on grasslands in areas that wolves frequently hunt. We also predict that this should decrease browsing pressure on heavily browsed woody plant stands in certain areas, which is supported by recent research in the GYE.

Designs of mixed resolution for process robustness studies

A robust process is a process that is insensitive to changes in uncontrollable variables. In this article a class of designs that can be used to achieve a robust process is proposed. These new designs are similar in structure to classical central composite designs, but they are of mixed resolution. That is, the new designs are at least Resolution V among the signal factors and are at least Resolution III among the noise factors. A catalog of the new designs, known as composite mixed-resolution (CMR) designs, is included for the practitioner. A comparison of the sizes of robustness designs shows that many CMR designs are superior to or competitive with the corresponding Taguchi designs. The response surface models associated with these two classes of robustness designs are also compared. D efficiencies and G efficiencies of the CMR designs are included.

Factorial experiments when factor levels are not necessarily reset

In industry, the run order of experiments is often randomized, but this does not guarantee that all factor levels are reset from one run to the next. When this happens and the levels of factors are the same in successive runs, the assumption of independent observations from run to run may be violated or incorrect. In this case, an ordinary least squares analysis can produce biased estimates of the coefficients in the model, which leads to erroneous test results and inferences. In this paper we describe how not resetting the levels of one or more factors in successive runs can result in less precision in parameter estimates and a larger than expected prediction variance. We present formulas for the prediction variance and the expected prediction variance for this situation. These quantities are important because they allow us to compare the prediction properties of experiments that are completely randomized to experiments where the levels of one or more factors are not reset. We give an analysis of an industrial experiment of this type and recommendations for carrying out factorial experiments where the levels of one or more factors are not reset.

A review of adaptive cluster sampling: 1990–2003

Adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) is an adaptive sampling scheme which operates under the rule that when the observed value of an initially selected sampling unit satisfies some condition of interest, C, other additional units in some pre-defined accompanying neighborhood are also added to the sample. In turn, if any of these additional units satisfy C, then their corresponding unit neighborhoods are added to the sample as well, and so on. This process stops when no additional units satisfying C are encountered. This paper will provide a review of the major developments and issues in ACS since its introduction by Thompson (1990) [Journal of the American Statistical Association, 85, 1050–1059].

Spherical prediction-variance properties of central composite and Box-Behnken designs

For quadratic regression on the hypercube, a single-number criterion, such as a G efficiency that is based on the prediction variance, is often included as one of the criteria when selecting a response surface design, As an alternative to the single-number-criterion approach, the variance dispersion graph, presented by Giovannitti-Jensen and Myers, is a graphical technique for evaluating prediction-variance properties throughout the experimental region. Three properties of interest are the maximum, minimum, and average spherical prediction variances, given the spherical radius. As an alternative to the computer-based approach requiring an optimization algorithm to evaluate these properties, the maximum, minimum, and spherical prediction variances for central composite and Box–Behnken designs can be determined analytically and are functions only of the radius and the design parameters. These functions yield the exact values of the spherical prediction-variance properties of central composite and Box–Behnke...

Behavioral responses of bison and elk in Yellowstone to snowmobiles and snow coaches.

Managers of public lands are charged with protecting some of our most important natural resources and ecosystems, while providing for their use and enjoyment by visitors. Almost one million visitors entered Yellowstone National Park by motorized means on snowmobiles (87%) or snow coaches (13%) during 1992-2003. Most vehicles toured the central portion of the park where bison (Bison bison) and elk (Cervus elaphus) concentrate in geothermal areas. We sampled >6500 interactions between groups of these species and groups of snowmobiles and snow coaches (collectively, OSV, over-snow vehicles) during five winters (1999-2000, 2002-2004). Multinomial logits models were used to identify conditions leading to behavioral responses. Elk responded three times as often (52%) as bison (19%) during interactions with groups of snowmobiles and snow coaches due to increased vigilance responses (elk, 44%; bison, 10%). However, the frequency of higher-intensity movement responses by bison and elk were similar (6-7% travel, 1-2% flight, <1% defense) and relatively low compared to other studies of ungulates and snowmobile disturbance. The likelihood of active responses by bison and elk increased significantly if animals were on or near roads, groups were smaller, or humans approached. The likelihood of an active response by bison decreased within winters having the largest visitation, suggesting some habituation to snowmobiles and snow coaches. There was no evidence that snowmobile use during the past 35 years affected the population dynamics or demography of bison or elk. Thus, we suggest that regulations restricting levels and travel routes of over-snow vehicles (OSVs) were effective at reducing disturbances to bison and elk below a level that would cause measurable fitness effects. We recommend park managers consider maintaining OSV traffic levels at or below those observed during our study. Regardless, differing interpretations of the behavioral and physiological response data will continue to exist because of the diverse values and beliefs of the many constituencies of Yellowstone.

Predicting Bison Migration out of Yellowstone National Park Using Bayesian Models

Long distance migrations by ungulate species often surpass the boundaries of preservation areas where conflicts with various publics lead to management actions that can threaten populations. We chose the partially migratory bison (Bison bison) population in Yellowstone National Park as an example of integrating science into management policies to better conserve migratory ungulates. Approximately 60% of these bison have been exposed to bovine brucellosis and thousands of migrants exiting the park boundary have been culled during the past two decades to reduce the risk of disease transmission to cattle. Data were assimilated using models representing competing hypotheses of bison migration during 1990–2009 in a hierarchal Bayesian framework. Migration differed at the scale of herds, but a single unifying logistic model was useful for predicting migrations by both herds. Migration beyond the northern park boundary was affected by herd size, accumulated snow water equivalent, and aboveground dried biomass. Migration beyond the western park boundary was less influenced by these predictors and process model performance suggested an important control on recent migrations was excluded. Simulations of migrations over the next decade suggest that allowing increased numbers of bison beyond park boundaries during severe climate conditions may be the only means of avoiding episodic, large-scale reductions to the Yellowstone bison population in the foreseeable future. This research is an example of how long distance migration dynamics can be incorporated into improved management policies.

Spotted knapweed response to season and frequency of mowing

Spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa Lam.) is a non-indigenous weed that has invaded millions of hectares of rangeland in the United States. Mowing may be useful for reducing this weed. Our objective was to investigate the response of spotted knapweed and grasses to season and frequency of mowing. Response of grass and spotted knapweed to 16 mowing treatments applied annually for 3 years was studied at 2 sites. Treatments consisted of combinations of spring, summer, and fall mowing. Treatments were arranged in a randomized-complete-block design with 4 replications (16 treatments; 4 replications; 2 sites = 128 plots). After repeating mowing treatments for 3 years, a single fall mowing when spotted knapweed was in the flowering or seed producing stage reduced its cover and adult density as much as any treatment consisting of repeated mowing. Fall mowing decreased adult density 85 and 83% below that of the control at Sites 1 and 2, respectively. Treatments reduced seedling density at Site 2, but the response was not consistent between years or among treatments. Spotted knapweed cover was decreased by several mowing treatments at each site (10-36%), while grass cover was only decreased by 3 mowing treatments (18-23%) at Site 1 in 1998. We recommend a single annual mowing, applied at the flowering or seed producing stage, for the partial control of spotted knapweed. DOI:10.2458/azu_jrm_v54i1_rinella

TEMPORAL VARIABILITY IN WINTER TRAVEL PATTERNS OF YELLOWSTONE BISON: THE EFFECTS OF ROAD GROOMING

The influence of winter recreation on wildlife in Yellowstone National Park (YNP), Wyoming and Montana, USA, is a controversial issue. In particular, the effects of road grooming, done to facilitate snowmobile and snowcoach travel, on bison (Bison bison) ecology are under debate. We collected data during winters, from 1997 to 2005, on bison road use, off-road travel, and activity budgets to quantify temporal trends in the amount of bison road and off-road travel and to identify the ecological factors affecting bison movements and use of the groomed road system in the Madison-Gibbon-Firehole (MGF) area of YNP. Using model comparison techniques, we found bison travel patterns to be influenced by multiple, interacting effects. Road travel was negatively correlated with road grooming, and we found no evidence that bison preferentially used groomed roads during winter. Snow water equivalent, bison density, and the springtime melt period were positively correlated with both bison road and off-road travel. From behavioral scans on 68,791 bison, we found that travel is only a small percentage (11%) of all bison activity, with foraging comprising 67% of observations. Also, only 7% of traveling bison and 30% of foraging bison were displacing snow, and we suggest foraging, rather than traveling, is likely the major energetic cost to bison in winter. Bison utilize their own trail network, connecting foraging areas using stream corridors, geothermal pathways, and self-groomed travel routes. Our results indicate that temporal patterns in bison road travel are a manifestation of general travel behavior and that groomed roads in the MGF do not appear to be a major factor influencing bison ecology and spatial redistribution. We suggest that the changes in bison spatial dynamics during the past three decades have likely been the result of the natural phenomenon of density-dependent range expansion, rather than having been caused by the anthropogenic influence of road grooming.