John Jacob

Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts

Abstract In this study of sell-side analysts’ forecasts, we explore the effects of analyst aptitude, learning-by-doing, and the internal environment of the brokerage house on forecast accuracy. Our results indicate that analysts’ aptitude and brokerage house characteristics are associated with forecast accuracy, while learning-by-doing is only associated with forecast accuracy when we do not control for analysts’ company-specific aptitude in forecasting. It is unlikely that this result is caused by measurement errors because it is robust when we use a sub-sample where we can accurately measure experience.

Autocorrelation structure of forecast errors from time-series models: Alternative assessments of the causes of post-earnings announcement drift

Abstract This paper demonstrates that the evidence supporting the hypothesis that post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD) is caused by investors’ failure to incorporate the implications of current earnings for future earnings is (also) consistent with researchers’ over-differencing an already stationary time-series. Specifically, we show the evidence is driven by a subset of firms where over-differencing of quarterly earnings in estimating earnings surprises is most likely to have occurred. Given the persistence of the PEAD over time, our alternative explanation suggests that the prior research investigating the causes for the PEAD overestimates investors’ naivete.

Why Firms Issue Targeted Stock

We analyze market reaction to targeted stock issuances and investigate possible motives for their use. We find a statistically significant abnormal return of 3.61% within a three-day window around the announcement of proposed targeted stock issuances, possibly attributable to greater information on targeted stock segments as well as monitoring and motivational advantages. We find lower tax-loss carry forwards among firms that issue targeted stock compared to those that spin off segments, suggesting that tax reasons motivate targeted stock use. The return and cash flows of targeted stocks are affected more by their common corporate affiliation, although industry influences remain strong.

Nuclear decommissioning costs: The impact of recoverability risk on valuation ☆

Abstract Mounting nuclear plant decommissioning costs and utility deregulation focused attention on accounting for decommissioning liabilities. FASBs Exposure Draft 158-B proposes balance sheet recognition of the projected future decommissioning cost liability at initial plant commission. We expect market valuation of each dollar of decommissioning cost apportioned to utilities to vary with utility-specific factors related to the probability of cost recovery via rates. We find a more negative decommissioning cost/firm value association for utilities with higher business or financial risk. Also, equity value is significantly associated with total decommissioning cost across all nuclear units in which a utility has ownership interest.

Implications of the Integral Approach and Earnings Management for Alternate Annual Reporting Periods

We compare the last 12 months’ earnings ending in quarter four (i.e., fiscal year earnings), three, two and one. Lipe and Bernard (2000) offer two competing explanations for higher volatility in fourth quarter earnings relative to other quarters. First, under the integral approach, any estimation errors in the earlier quarters are corrected through fourth quarter earnings, which could make them more volatile. Second, earnings management concentrated in the fourth quarter renders fourth quarter earnings more volatile. While both explanations have similar implications for the properties of quarterly earnings, their implications differ for the properties of annual earnings ending in each quarter. Our result comparing earnings variability is more consistent with earnings management than the integral approach. We examine the relative earnings attributes and find that fiscal year earnings attributes rank lower. Finally, we re-investigate the accrual anomaly and find that the accrual anomaly is more pronounced for fiscal year earnings.

Trident Utility: accounting for nuclear decommissioning costs

Abstract This case relates to current accounting for the costs that utility companies will incur in the future to decommission their nuclear plants and how the accounting would change under a new Exposure Draft. There is currently considerable diversity in the methods used to account for costs incurred to decommission nuclear power plants. The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) issued an initial Exposure Draft concerning these costs in 1996 and issued a revised version in February 2000. The Exposure Drafts propose more uniform accounting practices in this area. The proposed standard would, however, have significant effects on the balance sheets of utility companies that own nuclear power plants. This case investigates the consequences that the proposed standard would have on financial analysts’ perceptions of the financial soundness of utility companies affected by the standard. The case also explores some recent developments regarding deregulation of the electric utility industry and their ramifications for accounting.