John K. Scott

Making decisions to conserve species under climate change

Severe impacts on biodiversity are predicted to arise from climate change. These impacts may not be adequately addressed by conventional approaches to conservation. As a result, additional management actions are now being considered. However, there is currently limited guidance to help decision makers choose which set of actions (and in what order) is most appropriate for species that are considered to be vulnerable. Here, we provide a decision framework for the full complement of actions aimed at conserving species under climate change from ongoing conservation in existing refugia through various forms of mobility enhancement to ex situ conservation outside the natural environment. We explicitly recognize that allocation of conservation resources toward particular actions may be governed by factors such as the likelihood of success, cost and likely co-benefits to non-target species in addition to perceived vulnerability of individual species. As such, we use expert judgment of probable tradeoffs in resource allocation to inform the sequential evaluation of proposed management interventions.

Potential risk of accidental introduction of Asian gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) to Australasia: effects of climatic conditions and suitability of native plants

1 The potential risk of the establishment of the Asian strain of the gypsy moth (AGM) (Lymantria dispar) in New Zealand and Australia (Australasia) was assessed from a study of the insects host range and potential distribution. In New Zealand, viable eggs of AGM have been continuously intercepted on cargo from Asia, and therefore there is a high probability of accidental introductions of AGM to Australasia.

Phytophthora bilorbang sp. nov., a new species associated with the decline of Rubus anglocandicans (European blackberry) in Western Australia.

A new homothallic Phytophthora species, isolated from rhizosphere soil and roots of declining or dead Rubus anglocandicans (European blackberry) in south-west Western Australia, is described as Phytophthora bilorbang sp. nov. It produces non-papillate sporangia, smooth-walled oogonia containing thick-walled oospores, and paragynous antheridia. Although morphologically similar to several species within ITS Clade 6 and sub-clade II, namely P. gibbosa, P. gregata and P. megasperma, phylogenetic analyses of the ITS, cox1, HSP90, BT and NADH gene regions demonstrate that P. bilorbang sp. nov. is a distinct species. Additionally, P. bilorbang differs from these species in its growth and colony morphology on several media. Pathogenicity tests indicate that P. bilorbang could be responsible for the decline syndrome of blackberry within the Warren and Donnelly River catchments in the south-west of Western Australia.

Estimation of the Outcrossing Rate for Banksia attenuata R.Br. and Banksia menziesii R.Br. (Proteaceae)

The outcrossing rate was estimated for single populations of Banksia attenuata and B. menziesii by the use of allozyme polymorphisms in the endosperm. Of the 13 enzymes examined in each species, two possessed variable isozyme patterns in B. attenuata while three were variable in B. menziesii. Both species are apparently completely outcrossing. This implies that both species require the transfer of pollen between trees for successful seed set.

Biology and climatic requirements of Perapion antiquum (Coleoptera: Apionidae) in southern Africa: implications for the biological control of Emex spp. in Australia.

The potential distribution of the South African weevil, Perapion antiquum (Gyllenhal), a biological control agent for the weeds Emex spp., was deter mined by the computer program CLIMEX, using its native distribution, phenology and abundance together with development parameters. The predicted distribution included parts of Hawaii where the weevil successfully controlled Emex australis and E. spinosa . In Australia, sites of past unsuccessful releases have climates that this analysis indicates are unsuitable for the insect. The most favourable regions for establishment of the weevil are near the coast in the southern half of Australia, but most of these do not overlap with regions where Emex spp. are a problem. In western Cape Province, South Africa, E. australis plants are abundant and the weevil attacks the plant after seeds have formed. In Hawaii, a fortuitous combination of climatic conditions favours the weevil during the period after seed germination, and this may be the key to its control of the weed. Sites with climatic conditions similar to successful control sites in Hawaii are not found in Australia. It was concluded that P. antiquum will be of limited use as a biological control agent in Australia even in areas suitable for its establishment.

Salsola tragus or S. australis (Chenopodiaceae) in Australia—untangling taxonomic confusion through molecular and cytological analyses

Salsola tragus sensu lato (Chenopodiaceae) is found throughout Western Australia and is considered to be a weed in both natural and agricultural ecosystems, although the current taxonomic status of this species is not clear. The taxonomic literature reports morphological variation within Australian populations of the weed, indicating that there may be genetically distinct ecotypes or unidentified subspecies present within the species. A genetic and cytological approach was used to detect variation between 22 populations of S. tragus sensu lato in the south-west of Western Australia. Out-groups used in this study included a population of S. tragus L. from the USA and Maireana brevifolia (R.Br.) Paul G.Wilson (Chenopodiaceae) from Lake Grace. Four genetically distinct groups were identified, which were not closely related to the S. tragus out-group (~60% similarity). Further, these groups and a S. australis R.Br. sample from the USA were all diploid (2n = 18), unlike the tetraploid (2n = 36) S. tragus. The predominant wheatbelt weed, group A, which was previously classified as S. tragus ssp. tragus L., was identified as S. australis. This species is probably native to Australia, given its arrival predated European invasion. Further research is required to clarify the taxonomic status of the other three possible taxa and determine their status in relation to S. australis.

Variation in the ability of larvae of phytophagous insects to develop on evolutionarily unfamiliar plants: a study with gypsy moth Lymantria dispar and Eucalyptus

1 By examining variation in the abilities of polyphagous insects to develop on host plants with secondary metabolites that they have never encountered previously, we may be able to gain some insights into the nature of evolution of biochemical mechanisms to process plant secondary metabolites by phytophagous insects. 2 The present study aimed to examine variation in the ability of gypsy moth larvae Lymantria dispar (Lymantriidae) to complete development on different species of the plant genus Eucalyptus (Myrtaceae). Leaves of at least some Eucalyptus species contain formylated phloroglucinol derivatives. These are secondary metabolites that are evolutionarily unfamiliar to the gypsy moth. 3 Larvae of gypsy moth showed extremely variable responses in larval performance between Eucalyptus species, between individual trees within host plant species, between moth populations, and between individuals within moth populations. 4 Larval survivorship was in the range 0–94%, depending on the host. Failure of at least some larvae to complete development on some Eucalyptus species indicates that gypsy moth larvae have a limited ability to process secondary metabolites in eucalypt leaves. 5 At least some individuals, however, appear to already possess biochemical mechanisms that process the secondary metabolites in leaves of Eucalyptus species, and therefore the abilities of larvae to complete development on phylogenetically and chemically unfamiliar hosts are already present before the gypsy moth encounters these potential hosts.

Europe gears-up to fight invasive species

Abstract The Biology of Invasions: Strategic issues for European biodiversity research, meeting was held in Agropolis, Montpellier, France from 4 to 6 December 2000.

Potential Distribution of the Australian Native Chloris truncata Based on Modelling Both the Successful and Failed Global Introductions

Our aim was to model the current and future potential global distribution of Chloris truncata (windmill grass) based on the plants biology, soil requirements and colonisation success. The growth response of C. truncata to constant temperatures and soil moisture levels were measured and estimated respectively, to develop parameters for a CLIMEX bioclimatic model of potential distribution. The native distribution in eastern Australia and naturalised distribution in Western Australia was also used to inform the model. Associations with soil types were assessed within the suitable bioclimatic region in Australia. The global projection of the model was tested against the distribution of soil types and the known successful and failed global introductions. The verified model was then projected to future conditions due to climate change. Optimal temperature for plant development was 28°C and the plant required 970 degree-days above a threshold of 10°C. Early collection records indicate that the species is native to Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. The plant has been introduced elsewhere in Australia and throughout the world as a wool contaminant and as a potential pasture species, but some of the recorded establishments have failed to persist. The CLIMEX model projected to the world reflected effectively both the successful and failed distributions. The inclusion of soil associations improved the explanation of the observed distribution in Australia, but did not improve the ability to determine the potential distribution elsewhere, due to lack of similarity of soil types between continents. The addition of a climate change projection showed decreased suitability for this species in Australia, but increased suitability for other parts of the world, including regions where the plant previously failed to establish.

The current and future projected distribution of Solanum hoplopetalum (Solanaceae): an indigenous weed of the south-western Australian grain belt

The factors determining the distribution of the Western Australian endemic Solanum hoplopetalum Bitter & Summerh. (Solanaceae) were assessed because it was identified as a potential weed risk to Australian cropping regions, including under climate change scenarios. Incubation at constant temperatures determined daily plant growth rates and plants required 1380 degree-days above a threshold of 12.4°C to complete growth to flowering. From this and published information on the plant’s biology, we developed a mechanistic niche model using CLIMEX. The model projection for current climates produced a highly significant match to known distribution records. Spatially, the lower south-west and areas eastwards to South Australia, western New South Wales and southern parts of the Northern Territory were climatically suitable for growth of S. hoplopetalum. However, by 2070 the area under risk decreases, with the projected distribution under climate change contracting southwards. We hypothesise that climatic extremes and edaphic factors, possibly high soil pH, may be major factors determining the current distribution of S. hoplopetalum. Containment on the southern edge of the current distribution, interstate quarantine and local eradication in new areas of invasion are recommended as management options to combat the potential for this native weed to spread.