John Knodel

Demographic behavior in the past : a study of fourteen German village populations in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries

List of tables List of figures Acknowledgements Part I. Introduction: 1. Family reconstitution and the historical study of demographic behaviour 2. The source and the sample Part II. Mortality: 3. Infant and child mortality: levels, trends and seasonality 4. Infant and mortality: socio-economic and demographic differentials 5. Maternal mortality Part III. Family Formation: 6. Marriage 7. Marital dissolution and remarriage 8. Illegitimacy 9. Bridal pregnancy and prenuptial births Part IV. Marital Reproduction: 10. Trends in marital fertility and underlying natural fertility components 11. From natural fertility to family limitation 12. Starting, stopping, spacing and the fertility transition Part V. Interrelationships in Demographic Behaviour: 13. Family size, fertility and nuptiality interrelationships 14. Child mortality and reproductive behaviour Part VI. Conclusion: 15. Population dynamics of the past: summing up Appendices Bibliography Index.

Family limitation and the fertility transition: Evidence from the age patterns of fertility in Europe and Asia

Summary The age patterns of marital fertility levels and decline in modern Asia and historical Europe are analysed in order to answer two questions: (1) How closely do the age patterns of marital fertility in both areas prior to a systematic fertility decline conform to the age pattern of natural fertility? (2) How similar are the age patterns of the fertility transition experienced in Europe in the past, and the age pattern of fertility decline now under way in a number of Asian populations? The answers have important implications for our understanding of the fertility transition. They suggest that modern family limitation (i.e. parity-specific fertility control) was largely absent prior to a secular decline in marital fertility in both Europe and Asia. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that once the practice of family limitation starts to spread among the broader strata of the population, it seems almost inevitably to increase until it becomes a common behavioural norm. In this respect, the modern fertility transition appears to result from the spread of innovative behaviour and cannot be viewed simply as an adjustment to new socio-economic circumstances based on previously established behavioural mechanisms.

Family size and children’s education in Thailand: Evidence from a national sample

Analysis of a large, nationally representative survey shows that family size exerts a substantial negative influence on the probability that a child will attend secondary school in Thailand. The primary mechanism underlying this effect is most likely the dilution of familial resources available per .child associated with larger numbers of children. The extent and the level of schooling at which this effect operates vary with the household level of wealth and with rural or urban residence. Because fertility decline is leading to a major increase in the proportion of children who come from small families, falling birth rates contribute to increasing educational attainment in Thailand.

Thailand's reproductive revolution : rapid fertility decline in a Third-World setting

The fertility decline in Thailand is the 3rd largest fertility decline behind only South Korea and China. Thailands total fertility rate of 6.4 during the 1st half of the 1960s was quite typical of large Third World countries; by the early 1980s total fertility in Thailand had fallen to 3.6. Thailand is an especially intriguing case because of the rapidity and pervasiveness that have characterized the fertility decline there and because reproductive change has occurred during a period when the country is still predominantly rural and agrarian. The significance of Thailand as a case study of reproductive change in the Third World is further enhanced by the fact that at an early stage of the fertility decline an official policy and program were instituted to encourage and facilitate the practice of contraception with the explicit goal of reducing the population growth rate through lowering fertility. Although Thailand is not among the least developed of the Third World countries neither does it rank particularly high with regard to many conventional indices of socioeconomic development. Chapter 2 discusses sources and methods and provides socioeconomic and related background information for Thailand. Chapters 3 and 4 review recent trends in fertility and family size preferences. The quantitative evidence concerning the proximate determinants of reproductive change is examined in chapter 5 which includes an assessment of the relative contribution of several key proximate determinants to the recent levels and changes in Thai fertility. The results clearly show that increased contraceptive use is the main proximate determinant accounting for Thailands fertility decline. Chapter 6 also focuses on the proximate determinants but is based on qualitative evidence and includes a discussion of evidence pointing to a substantial latent demand for lower fertility even before fertility went down. The relations between societal change and reduced family size are the topic of chapter 7. Chapter 8 focuses on aspects of the Thai culture that are particularly relevant to understanding reproductive behavior and attitudes. Chapter 9 explores the channels through which the means of fertility reduction spread through Thai society. The final chapter summarizes basic arguments regarding the causes and conditions behind Thailands rapid fertility decline.

Family size and the education of children in the context of rapid fertility decline

Family planning programs have caused a substantial decline in fertility in Thailand in the last 20 years. At the same time a steady increase in the educational level of children has occurred. Recent surveys were taken to gain information on family size in relation to the educational level of the children focussing on attendance of lower and upper secondary schools. Results show that males were more likely to continue to secondary schools which is in agreement with the educational desires of the parents. The strongest factors determining the educational level of children is the socioeconomic and educational status of the parents. The surveys show that as family size increases especially over 5 children the likelihood of the children staying is school drops dramatically. Parents educational level seems to be the next most important factor with a positive correlation to the childs educational level. The cost of education is the responsibility of the parents which is why family size is important; while most parents surveyed feel advanced education is necessary for the children to make a better living they may not be in an economic situation to provide it. The data shows that the number of children continuing from lower secondary school to upper secondary school is in agreement with the number expected to continue by the parents. About 33% were expected to continue and 35% actually did continue to lower secondary school from primary school; 17% were expected to go on to upper secondary school and 24% did continue.

Family size and children’s education in Vietnam

Data from the nationally representative 1994 Inter-Censal Demographic Survey are used to examine the association between family size and children s schooling in Vietnam. The data provide information on several education measures for all children over age 10, including children no longer residing in the household. Although a clear inverse bivariate association between family size and children s school attendance and educational attainment is evident, multivariate analysis controlling for urban/rural residence, region, parents’ education, household wealth, and child’s age, reveals that much of this association, especially that predicting educational attainment, is attributable to these other influences. Moreover, much of the effect that remains after statistical adjustment for the other influences is seen mainly at the largest family sizes. We consider the implications of these findings for current population policy in Vietnam and the possible features of the Vietnamese context that might account for the modest association.

The impact of breast feeding patterns on the biometric analysis of infant mortality

A major assumption of the biometric analysis of infant mortality as developed by Bourgeois-Pichat is that the age structure of infant deaths after the first month of life is virtually constant across time and cultures. Reanalysis of results from studies which compare the mortality of infants according to the type of feeding indicated that the relationship between mortality and age within the first year of life followed different patterns for breast fed and artificially fed infants. Historical data for populations with different breast feeding customs reveal similar differences in the age pattern of infant mortality. In populations where breast feeding was uncommon or of very short duration, infant mortality rises particularly steeply during the early months of the first year of life. The age structure of infant mortality in less developed countries where breast feeding is decreasing rapidly may be similarly affected. When substantial deviations from the linear relationship are evident, particular caution is required in applying the biometric technique, since in such situations the estimated endogenous mortality is very much affected by the particular set of data points within the first year of life which are chosen for the basis of the estimates.

Intergenerational support and gender: a comparison of four Asian countries.

We examine patterns of intergenerational support, with a key focus on the gender of the providers, in four countries in East and Southeast Asia: Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. These countries make an interesting set for comparison because they are characterized by varying levels of social and economic development and different family systems, with the Philippines and Thailand having bilateral family systems, Taiwan having a strong patrilineal family system, and Singapore having a mix of the two systems across ethnic groups. Our analyses are based on a recent round of national surveys of older persons that were conducted in each country. The results reveal distinctive patterns and varying levels of flexibility across countries with respect to the gender of coresident married children, but only modest gender patterning in the provision of financial and material support and visiting patterns.

Post-Cairo population policy: does promoting girls schooling miss the mark?

This article discusses the shortfalls of the 1994 Cairo International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) regarding the closing of the gender gap in schooling and the goal of social justice. It is argued that the deficits in socioeconomic status are compelling forces influencing educational status. The examples of Thailand and Viet Nam illustrate that socioeconomic inequalities in both nonsocialist and socialist developing countries are wide. Population specialists must be sensitive to the socioeconomic inequalities and focus on improving the educational status of all low income populations. Where limited resources may force a decision to improve education for one gender over another decisions should justify on social justice as well as pragmatic grounds the greater efficacy of lowering fertility and infant mortality through improved education for women in countries with a wide gender gap. The authors argue that the goals should be to raise enrollment ratios and the quality of schooling for all children and to give priority to reducing socioeconomic inequalities for both genders and only a secondary priority to a specific gender focus. In many countries the gender gap is closing and a strong policy emphasizing closing it is no longer needed. The effect of female education on fertility is only one part of the emphasis on female education and only one way to lower fertility. To emphasize one factor in fertility decline would be ill advised. Examples from the Philippines and Arab countries illustrate that even in high female education countries fertility has not declined very much. The ICPD Plan of Action calls for universal primary schooling for boys and girls and for wide and early access for girls and women to secondary and higher levels of education. Inequality in schooling is easier to document than is socioeconomic inequality.

Fertility Transition in Thailand: A Qualitative Analysis

This paper analyzes qualitative information gathered through focus group sessions with men and women who built their families before the Thai fertility decline and with a younger generation whose members are limiting family size to 2 or 3 children. The ultimate aim of the study is to generate qualitative data (perceptions opinions and attitudes) that will complement the quantitative documentation of the ongoing fertility transition in Thailand including its timing and pace. 4 major components are identified all of which interacted to result in an abrupt and rapid shift in reproductive patterns. 1) Fundamental social and economic changes under way in Thailand for some time are responsible in part for the latent demand for fertility control among the older generation and far more so for the current desire for smaller families among the younger. Participants viewed larger numbers of children as a burden with which they are either unable or unwilling to cope. The analysis points to a perceived increase of monetary costs of raising children and a decrease in some benefits. However some participants felt that more was to be gained from rearing few better educated children than from having many less educated ones. 2 The cultural setting is relatively conducive to the acceptance of deliberately regulated fertility and limitation of family size as adaptations to changing circumstances. There exists a prevailing expectation that each conjegal unit will be largely responsible for the support of their ownn children. In addition Thai women enjoy a considerable degree of autonomy and influence over birth control and family size enabling them to effectively take into account their own stake as the bearers and rearers of children. Finally Budddhism as practiced in Thailand also appears to pose no barriers to fertility control. 3) Organized efforts to provide contraception throughout the country met with immediate success largely because of the existence of a receptivity of latent demand for effective and acceptable birth control prior to the widespread availability of contraceptives. 4 The national family planning programs efforts to promote and provide effective modern contraception have facilitated the widespread use of birth control. The analysis shows that the 2 most dynamic components explaining Thailands fertility transition are the set of fundamental social changes that have been taking place and the effect of the family planning program. It is the interaction between these 2 forces both operating within a cultural setting conducive to reporoductive change that has resulted in the rapid and extensive decline of fertility. (summaries in ENG FRE SPA)