John M. Lachin

Empagliflozin, Cardiovascular Outcomes, and Mortality in Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUND The effects of empagliflozin, an inhibitor of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2, in addition to standard care, on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk are not known. METHODS We randomly assigned patients to receive 10 mg or 25 mg of empagliflozin or placebo once daily. The primary composite outcome was death from cardiovascular causes, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke, as analyzed in the pooled empagliflozin group versus the placebo group. The key secondary composite outcome was the primary outcome plus hospitalization for unstable angina. RESULTS A total of 7020 patients were treated (median observation time, 3.1 years). The primary outcome occurred in 490 of 4687 patients (10.5%) in the pooled empagliflozin group and in 282 of 2333 patients (12.1%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio in the empagliflozin group, 0.86; 95.02% confidence interval, 0.74 to 0.99; P=0.04 for superiority). There were no significant between-group differences in the rates of myocardial infarction or stroke, but in the empagliflozin group there were significantly lower rates of death from cardiovascular causes (3.7%, vs. 5.9% in the placebo group; 38% relative risk reduction), hospitalization for heart failure (2.7% and 4.1%, respectively; 35% relative risk reduction), and death from any cause (5.7% and 8.3%, respectively; 32% relative risk reduction). There was no significant between-group difference in the key secondary outcome (P=0.08 for superiority). Among patients receiving empagliflozin, there was an increased rate of genital infection but no increase in other adverse events. CONCLUSIONS Patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk for cardiovascular events who received empagliflozin, as compared with placebo, had a lower rate of the primary composite cardiovascular outcome and of death from any cause when the study drug was added to standard care. (Funded by Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly; EMPA-REG OUTCOME ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01131676.).

Retinopathy and nephropathy in patients with type I diabetes four years after a trial of intensive therapy

BACKGROUND Among patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus, intensive therapy (with the aim of achieving near-normal blood glucose and glycosylated hemoglobin concentrations [hemoglobin A1c]) markedly reduces the risk of microvascular complications as compared with conventional therapy. To assess whether these benefits persist, we compared the effects of former and intensive conventional therapy on the recurrence and severity of retinopathy and nephropathy for four years after the end of the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT). METHODS At the end of the DCCT, the patients in the conventional-therapy group were offered intensive therapy, and the care of all patients was transferred to their own physicians. Retinopathy was evaluated on the basis of centrally graded fundus photographs in 1208 patients during the fourth year after the DCCT ended, and nephropathy was evaluated on the basis of urine specimens obtained from 1302 patients during the third or fourth year, approximately half of whom were from each treatment group. RESULTS The difference in the median glycosylated hemoglobin values between the conventional-therapy and intensive-therapy groups during the 6.5 years of the DCCT (average, 9.1 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively) narrowed during follow-up (median during 4 years, 8.2 percent and 7.9 percent, respectively, P<0.001). Nevertheless, the proportion of patients who had worsening retinopathy, including proliferative retinopathy, macular edema, and the need for laser therapy, was lower in the intensive-therapy group than in the conventional-therapy group (odds reduction, 72 percent to 87 percent, P<0.001). The proportion of patients with an increase in urinary albumin excretion was significantly lower in the intensive-therapy group. CONCLUSIONS The reduction in the risk of progressive retinopathy and nephropathy resulting from intensive therapy in patients with type 1 diabetes persists for at least four years, despite increasing hyperglycemia.

Effect of Sitagliptin on Cardiovascular Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUND Data are lacking on the long-term effect on cardiovascular events of adding sitagliptin, a dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitor, to usual care in patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. METHODS In this randomized, double-blind study, we assigned 14,671 patients to add either sitagliptin or placebo to their existing therapy. Open-label use of antihyperglycemic therapy was encouraged as required, aimed at reaching individually appropriate glycemic targets in all patients. To determine whether sitagliptin was noninferior to placebo, we used a relative risk of 1.3 as the marginal upper boundary. The primary cardiovascular outcome was a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for unstable angina. RESULTS During a median follow-up of 3.0 years, there was a small difference in glycated hemoglobin levels (least-squares mean difference for sitagliptin vs. placebo, -0.29 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.32 to -0.27). Overall, the primary outcome occurred in 839 patients in the sitagliptin group (11.4%; 4.06 per 100 person-years) and 851 patients in the placebo group (11.6%; 4.17 per 100 person-years). Sitagliptin was noninferior to placebo for the primary composite cardiovascular outcome (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.88 to 1.09; P<0.001). Rates of hospitalization for heart failure did not differ between the two groups (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.20; P=0.98). There were no significant between-group differences in rates of acute pancreatitis (P=0.07) or pancreatic cancer (P=0.32). CONCLUSIONS Among patients with type 2 diabetes and established cardiovascular disease, adding sitagliptin to usual care did not appear to increase the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events, hospitalization for heart failure, or other adverse events. (Funded by Merck Sharp & Dohme; TECOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00790205.).

Introduction to Sample Size Determination and Power Analysis for Clinical Trials

The importance of sample size evaluation in clinical trials is reviewed and a general method is presented from which specific equations are derived for sample size determination or the analysis of power for a wide variety os statistical procedures. The method is discussed and illustrated in relation to the t test, tests for proportions, tests of survival time, and tests for correlations as they commonly occur in clinical trials. Most of the specific equations reduce to a simple general form for which tables are presented.

Empagliflozin and Progression of Kidney Disease in Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUND Diabetes confers an increased risk of adverse cardiovascular and renal events. In the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial, empagliflozin, a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, reduced the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes at high risk for cardiovascular events. We wanted to determine the long-term renal effects of empagliflozin, an analysis that was a prespecified component of the secondary microvascular outcome of that trial. METHODS We randomly assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and an estimated glomerular filtration rate of at least 30 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2) of body-surface area to receive either empagliflozin (at a dose of 10 mg or 25 mg) or placebo once daily. Prespecified renal outcomes included incident or worsening nephropathy (progression to macroalbuminuria, doubling of the serum creatinine level, initiation of renal-replacement therapy, or death from renal disease) and incident albuminuria. RESULTS Incident or worsening nephropathy occurred in 525 of 4124 patients (12.7%) in the empagliflozin group and in 388 of 2061 (18.8%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio in the empagliflozin group, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.53 to 0.70; P<0.001). Doubling of the serum creatinine level occurred in 70 of 4645 patients (1.5%) in the empagliflozin group and in 60 of 2323 (2.6%) in the placebo group, a significant relative risk reduction of 44%. Renal-replacement therapy was initiated in 13 of 4687 patients (0.3%) in the empagliflozin group and in 14 of 2333 patients (0.6%) in the placebo group, representing a 55% lower relative risk in the empagliflozin group. There was no significant between-group difference in the rate of incident albuminuria. The adverse-event profile of empagliflozin in patients with impaired kidney function at baseline was similar to that reported in the overall trial population. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk, empagliflozin was associated with slower progression of kidney disease and lower rates of clinically relevant renal events than was placebo when added to standard care. (Funded by the Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly and Company Diabetes Alliance; EMPA-REG OUTCOME ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01131676.).

Rituximab, B-Lymphocyte Depletion, and Preservation of Beta-Cell Function

BACKGROUND The immunopathogenesis of type 1 diabetes mellitus is associated with T-lymphocyte autoimmunity. However, there is growing evidence that B lymphocytes play a role in many T-lymphocyte-mediated diseases. It is possible to achieve selective depletion of B lymphocytes with rituximab, an anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody. This phase 2 study evaluated the role of B-lymphocyte depletion in patients with type 1 diabetes. METHODS We conducted a randomized, double-blind study in which 87 patients between 8 and 40 years of age who had newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes were assigned to receive infusions of rituximab or placebo on days 1, 8, 15, and 22 of the study. The primary outcome, assessed 1 year after the first infusion, was the geometric mean area under the curve (AUC) for the serum C-peptide level during the first 2 hours of a mixed-meal tolerance test. Secondary outcomes included safety and changes in the glycated hemoglobin level and insulin dose. RESULTS At 1 year, the mean AUC for the level of C peptide was significantly higher in the rituximab group than in the placebo group. The rituximab group also had significantly lower levels of glycated hemoglobin and required less insulin. Between 3 months and 12 months, the rate of decline in C-peptide levels in the rituximab group was significantly less than that in the placebo group. CD19+ B lymphocytes were depleted in patients in the rituximab group, but levels increased to 69% of baseline values at 12 months. More patients in the rituximab group than in the placebo group had adverse events, mostly grade 1 or grade 2, after the first infusion. The reactions appeared to be minimal with subsequent infusions. There was no increase in infections or neutropenia with rituximab. CONCLUSIONS A four-dose course of rituximab partially preserved beta-cell function over a period of 1 year in patients with type 1 diabetes. The finding that B lymphocytes contribute to the pathogenesis of type 1 diabetes may open a new pathway for exploration in the treatment of patients with this condition. (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00279305.)

Statistical Considerations in the Intent-to-Treat Principle

This paper describes some of the statistical considerations in the intent-to-treat design and analysis of clinical trials. The pivotal property of a clinical trial is the assignment of treatments to patients at random. Randomization alone, however, is not sufficient to provide an unbiased comparison of therapies. An additional requirement is that the set of patients contributing to an analysis provides an unbiased assessment of treatment effects, or that any missing data are ignorable. A sufficient condition to provide an unbiased comparison is to obtain complete data on all randomized subjects. This can be achieved by an intent-to-treat design wherein all patients are followed until death or the end of the trial, or until the outcome event is reached in a time-to-event trial, irrespective of whether the patient is still receiving or complying with the assigned treatment. The properties of this strategy are contrasted with those of an efficacy subset analysis in which patients and observable patient data are excluded from the analysis on the basis of information obtained postrandomization. I describe the potential bias that can be introduced by such postrandomization exclusions and the pursuant effects on type I error probabilities. Especially in a large study, the inflation in type I error probability can be severe, 0.50 or higher, even when the null hypothesis is true. Standard statistical methods for the analysis of censored or incomplete observations all require the assumption of missing at random to some degree, and none of these methods adjust for the potential bias introduced by post hoc subset selection. Nor is such adjustment possible unless one posits a model that relates the missing observations to other observed information for each subject-models that are inherently untestable. Further, the subset selection bias is confounded with the subset-specific treatment effect, and the two components are not identifiable without additional untestable assumptions. Methods for sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of bias in the efficacy subset analysis are described. It is generally believed that the efficacy subset analysis has greater power than the intent-to-treat analysis. However, even when the efficacy subset analysis is assumed to be unbiased, or have a true type I error probability equal to the desired level alpha, situations are described where the intent-to-treat analysis in fact has greater power than the efficacy subset analysis. The intent-to-treat design, wherein all possible patients continue to be followed, is especially powerful when an effective treatment arrests progression of disease during its administration. Thus, a patient benefits long after the patient becomes noncompliant or the treatment is terminated. In such cases, a landmark analysis using the observations from the last patient evaluation is likely to prove more powerful than life-table or longitudinal analyses. Examples are described.

Rosiglitazone-associated fractures in type 2 diabetes: an Analysis from A Diabetes Outcome Progression Trial (ADOPT).

OBJECTIVE—The purpose of this study was to examine possible factors associated with the increased risk of fractures observed with rosiglitazone in A Diabetes Outcome Progression Trial (ADOPT). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—Data from the 1,840 women and 2,511 men randomly assigned in ADOPT to rosiglitazone, metformin, or glyburide for a median of 4.0 years were examined with respect to time to first fracture, rates of occurrence, and sites of fractures. RESULTS—In men, fracture rates did not differ between treatment groups. In women, at least one fracture was reported with rosiglitazone in 60 patients (9.3% of patients, 2.74 per 100 patient-years), metformin in 30 patients (5.1%, 1.54 per 100 patient-years), and glyburide in 21 patients (3.5%, 1.29 per 100 patient-years). The cumulative incidence (95% CI) of fractures in women at 5 years was 15.1% (11.2–19.1) with rosiglitazone, 7.3% (4.4–10.1) with metformin, and 7.7% (3.7–11.7) with glyburide, representing hazard ratios (95% CI) of 1.81 (1.17–2.80) and 2.13 (1.30–3.51) for rosiglitazone compared with metformin and glyburide, respectively. The increase in fractures with rosiglitazone occurred in pre- and postmenopausal women, and fractures were seen predominantly in the lower and upper limbs. No particular risk factor underlying the increased fractures in female patients who received rosiglitazone therapy was identified. CONCLUSIONS—Further investigation into the risk factors and underlying pathophysiology for the increased fracture rate in women taking rosiglitazone is required to relate them to preclinical data and better understand the clinical implications of and possible interventions for these findings.

A Controlled Trial of Plasmapheresis Therapy in Severe Lupus Nephritis

BACKGROUND The prognosis of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus who have glomerulonephritis is poor, despite treatment with immunosuppressive therapy. Plasmapheresis therapy has been used, but there have been few controlled clinical observations of its efficacy. METHODS We carried out a randomized, controlled trial comparing a standard-therapy regimen of prednisone and cyclophosphamide (standard therapy) with a regimen of standard therapy plus plasmapheresis in 86 patients with severe lupus nephritis in 14 medical centers. The patients underwent plasmapheresis three times weekly for four weeks. Drug therapy was standardized, with strict adherence to nine detailed medical-management protocols. RESULTS Forty-six patients received standard therapy, and 40 patients received standard therapy plus plasmapheresis. The mean follow-up was 136 weeks. Six patients (13 percent) in the standard-therapy group and eight patients (20 percent) in the plasmapheresis group died. Renal failure developed in 8 patients (17 percent) in the standard-therapy group, as compared with 10 (25 percent) in the plasmapheresis group. Thirty patients (35 percent) reached stopping points--14 (30 percent) in the standard-therapy group and 16 (40 percent) in the plasmapheresis group. A similar number of patients in each group had a decrease in both the serum creatinine concentration and urinary protein excretion to approximately normal values. Patients treated with plasmapheresis had a significantly more rapid reduction of serum concentrations of antibodies against double-stranded DNA and cryoglobulins. CONCLUSIONS Treatment with plasmapheresis plus a standard regimen of prednisone and cyclophosphamide therapy does not improve the clinical outcome in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus and severe nephritis, as compared with the standard regimen alone.

Randomization in clinical trials : theory and practice

Preface. Randomization and the Clinical Trial. Issues in the Design of Clinical Trials. Randomization for Balancing Treatment Assignments. Balancing on Known Covariates. The Effects of Unobserved Covariates. Selection Bias. Randomization as a Basis for Inference. Inference for Stratified, Blocked, and Covariate-Adjusted Analyses. Randomization in Practice. Response-Adaptive Randomization. Inference for Response-Adaptive Rondomization. Response-Adaptive Randomization in Practice. Some Useful results in Large Sample Theory. Large Sample Inference for Complete and Restricted Randomization. Large sample Inference for Response-Adaptive Randomization. Author Index. Subject Index.