John Nichols

Development and Calibration of an Earthquake Fatality Function

Structures present a risk during seismic events from partial or full collapse that can cause death and injury to the occupants. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has collated data on deaths from and magnitudes of earthquakes. These data have not previously been analyzed to establish any relationships between fatality tolls or fatality rates in different earthquakes. An investigation of the fatality catalogue establishes a bounding function for the twentieth-century fatality data using the USGS assigned earthquake magnitude as the dependent variable. A simple equation was established and calibrated to relate the fatalities in earthquakes having tolls lower than the bounding function to the bounding function. This equation and the calibration data, essentially for unreinforced masonry and timber-framed buildings, provides a procedure for estimating fatality counts in future theoretical events with a specific combination of circumstances. Potential uses of the fatality function with further refinement are economic analysis of seismic mitigation alternatives for unreinforced masonry structures. Current uses of the fatality function can be for real-time estimating of fatalities in earthquakes in remote locations, and estimating fatality counts in future earthquakes for planning purposes.

The Bull Market: Political Advertising

The United States is in the midst of its quadrennial presidential election, a process that now extends so long as to be all but permanent. The campaign is also drenched in more money given by a small handful of billionaires than has been the case in the past. Since the 1970s the amount spent on political campaigns has increased dramatically in almost every election cycle. It has led to the formation of what we term the “money-and-media election complex,” which has a revenue base in the many billions of campaign dollars donated annually, and has effectively become the foundation of electoral politics in the United States. Moreover, the rate of increase in campaign spending from 2008 to 2010, and especially from 2008 to 2012, is now at an all-time high. This article can also be found at the Monthly Review website , where most recent articles are published in full. Click here to purchase a PDF version of this article at the Monthly Review website.