John O'Grady

Early indicators of prognosis in fulminant hepatic failure

The successful use of orthotopic liver transplantation in fulminant hepatic failure has created a need for early prognostic indicators to select the patients most likely to benefit at a time when liver transplantation is still feasible. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed on 588 patients with acute liver failure managed medically during 1973-1985, to identify the factors most likely to indicate a poor prognosis. In acetaminophen-induced fulminant hepatic failure, survival correlated with arterial blood pH, peak prothrombin time, and serum creatinine--a pH less than 7.30, prothrombin time greater than 100 s, and creatinine greater than 300 mumol/L indicating a poor prognosis. In patients with viral hepatitis and drug reactions three static variables [etiology (non A, non B hepatitis or drug reactions), age less than 11 and greater than 40 yr, duration of jaundice before the onset of encephalopathy greater than 7 days] and two dynamic variables (serum bilirubin greater than 300 mumol/L and prothrombin time greater than 50 s) indicated a poor prognosis. The value of these indicators in determining outcome was tested retrospectively in a further 175 patients admitted during 1986-1987, leading to the construction of models for the selection of patients for liver transplantation.

Peginterferon Alfa-2a in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis C

BACKGROUND Covalent attachment of a 40-kd branched-chain polyethylene glycol moiety to interferon alfa-2a results in a compound (peginterferon alfa-2a) that has sustained absorption, a slower rate of clearance, and a longer half-life than unmodified interferon alfa-2a. We compared the clinical effects of a regimen of peginterferon alfa-2a with those of a regimen of interferon alfa-2a in the initial treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis C. METHODS We randomly assigned 531 patients with chronic hepatitis C to receive either 180 microg of peginterferon alfa-2a subcutaneously once per week for 48 weeks (267 patients) or 6 million units of interferon alfa-2a subcutaneously three times per week for 12 weeks, followed by 3 million units three times per week for 36 weeks (264 patients). All the patients were assessed at week 72 for a sustained virologic response, defined as an undetectable level of hepatitis C virus RNA (<100 copies per milliliter). RESULTS In the peginterferon group, 223 of the 267 patients completed treatment and 206 completed follow-up. In the interferon group, 161 of the 264 patients completed treatment and 154 completed follow-up. In an intention-to-treat analysis in which patients who missed the examination at the end of treatment or follow-up were considered not to have had a response at that point, peginterferon alfa-2a was associated with a higher rate of virologic response than was interferon alfa-2a at week 48 (69 percent vs. 28 percent, P=0.001) and at week 72 (39 percent vs. 19 percent, P=0.001). Sustained normalization of serum alanine aminotransferase concentrations at week 72 was also more common in the peginterferon group than in the interferon group (45 percent vs. 25 percent, P=0.001). The two groups were similar with respect to the frequency and severity of adverse events, which were typical of those associated with interferon alfa. CONCLUSIONS In patients with chronic hepatitis C, a regimen of peginterferon alfa-2a given once weekly is more effective than a regimen of interferon alfa-2a given three times weekly.

Randomised trial of efficacy and safety of oral ganciclovir in the prevention of cytomegalovirus disease in liver-transplant recipients

BACKGROUND Cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease is a frequent cause of serious morbidity after solid-organ transplantation. The prophylactic regimens used to prevent CMV infection and disease have shown limited benefit in seronegative recipients. We studied the safety and efficacy of oral ganciclovir in the prevention of CMV disease following orthotopic liver transplantation. METHODS Between December, 1993, and April, 1995, 304 liver-transplant recipients were randomised to receive oral ganciclovir 1000 mg or matching placebo three times a day. Seronegative recipients of seronegative livers were excluded. Study drug was administered as soon as the patient was able to take medication by mouth (no later than day 10) until the 98th day after transplantation. Patients were assessed at specified times throughout the first 6 months after surgery for evidence of CMV infection, CMV disease, rejection, opportunistic infections, and possible drug toxicity. FINDINGS The Kaplan-Meier estimate of the 6-month incidence of CMV disease was 29 (18.9%) of 154 in the placebo group, compared with seven (4.8%) of 150 in the ganciclovir group (p < 0.001). In the high-risk group of seronegative recipients (R-) of seropositive livers (D+), incidence of CMV disease was 11 (44.0%) of 25 in the placebo group, three (14.8%) of 21 in the ganciclovir group (p = 0.02). Significant benefit was also observed in those receiving antibodies to lymphocytes, where the incidence of CMV disease was 12 (32.9%) of 37 in the placebo group and two (4.6%) of 44 in the ganciclovir group (p = 0.002). Oral ganciclovir reduced the incidence of CMV infection (placebo 79 [51.5%] of 154; ganciclovir 37 [24.5%] of 150; p < 0.001) and also reduced symptomatic herpes-simplex infections (Kaplan-Meier estimates: placebo 36 [23.5%] of 154; ganciclovir five [3.5%] of 150; p < 0.001). INTERPRETATION Oral ganciclovir is a safe and effective method for the prevention of CMV disease after orthotopic liver transplantation.

Hepatitis B virus reinfection after orthotopic liver transplantation: Serological and clinical implications

The implications of hepatitis B virus (HBV) reinfection after liver transplantation were studied in 29 patients followed for 1.7-15 years. Of 20 patients with HBV infection alone, nine were HBeAg and HBV DNA seronegative and 11 had evidence of HBV replication as measured by HBeAg or HBV DNA seropositivity. Nine patients had co-existing HBV and delta virus (HDV) infection. Five patients became HBsAg seronegative after transplantation (four immediately and one after an hepatitic episode). Of the 20 patients with HBV infection alone, 17 had evidence of viral replication after transplantation with markedly increased HBV DNA levels. Five patients with HDV infection had HBV DNA in serum, but in significantly lower amounts than in those with HBV infection alone. Twenty-five episodes of graft dysfunction attributed to recurrent HBV infection occurred in 19 patients (65.5%). Thirteen episodes (in 12 patients) were self-resolving acute hepatitic illnesses. Six patients had a rapidly progressive illness leading to graft loss within 6 weeks, with the distinctive histological features termed fibrosing cholestatic hepatitis (FCH). Liver function tests in these patients showed markedly abnormal serum bilirubin and prothrombin times, but only modest increases in serum transaminase levels. An additional six patients lost their graft as a consequence of HBV recurrence through various pathogenetic mechanisms including possible (but unproven) FCH, chronic active hepatitis or late-onset hepatic failure. Co-existing HDV infection appeared to confer some medium-term protection from graft loss.

Liver transplantation for malignant disease. Results in 93 consecutive patients.

Ninety-three patients with malignant disease underwent or-thotopic liver transplantation between May 1968 and April 1987 in the Cambridge/Kings College Hospital program. Of 50 patients with primary hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (19 with cirrhosis, 31 without cirrhosis, including 7 with fibrolamellar variant), 37 (74%) survived for more than 3 months, and in this group evidence of tumor recurrence was obtained in 24 (64.9%), the longest survivor being 11.8 years post-transplant, and three survived for more than 5 years. Although there is no correlation between the frequency of tumor recurrence and underlying cirrhosis, or histologie type (except fibrolamellar variant), it was observed earlier in those with moderate/poorly differentiated tumors and also when prcdnisolone and azathioprine was used for immunosupprcssion. Tumor recurred in all but two of those with peripheral or central cholangiocarcinoma (one alive at 6.1 years) with median survival times of 34 weeks and 56 weeks for the central and peripheral types, respectively. Among the unusual primary tumors, one with epithelioid haemangioendothelioma developed tumor recurrence at 2 years, one of two patients with apudoma is tumor-free at 2.2 years, and the one patient with bile-duct papillary cystadenocarcinoma is alive at 1.7 years. For the secondary hepatic malignancy group, survival times were shorter with little palliation except for two patients with carcinoid syndrome who were free of associated symptoms at 6 and 10 months. Despite the overall high frequency of tumor recurrence in most categories of hepatic malignancy, liver transplantation gave worthwhile survival with a number of patients cured and in the others considerable palliation of symptoms.

3-month and 12-month mortality after first liver transplant in adults in Europe: predictive models for outcome

BACKGROUND Mortality after liver transplantation depends on heterogeneous recipient and donor factors. Our aim was to assess risk of death and to develop models to help predict mortality after liver transplantation. METHODS We analysed data from 34,664 first adult liver transplants from the European Liver Transplant Registry to identify factors associated with mortality at 3-months (n=21,605 in training dataset) and 12-months (n=18,852 in training dataset) after transplantation. We used multivariable logistic regression models to generate mortality scores for each individual, and assessed model discrimination and calibration on an independent validation dataset (n=9489 for 3-month model and n=8313 for 12-month model). FINDINGS 2540 of 21,605 (12%) individuals in the 3-month training sample had died by 3 months. Compared with those transplanted in 2000-03, those transplanted earlier had a higher risk of death. Increased mortality at 3-months post-transplantation was associated with acute liver failure (adjusted odds ratio 1.61), donor age older than 60 years (1.16), compatible (1.22) or incompatible (2.07) donor-recipient blood group, older recipient age (1.12 per 5 years), split or reduced graft (1.96), total ischaemia time of longer than 13 h (1.38), and low United Network for Organ Sharing score (score 1: 2.43; score 2: 1.67). However, cirrhosis with hepatocellular carcinoma, alcohol cirrhosis, hepatitis C or primary biliary cirrhosis, donor age 40 years or younger, or less, hepatitis B, and larger size of transplant centre (> or = 70 transplants per year) were associated with improved early outcomes. The 3-month mortality score discriminated well between those who did and did not die in the validation sample (C statistic=0.688). We noted similar findings for 12-month mortality, although deaths were generally underestimated at this timepoint. INTERPRETATION The 3-month and 12-month mortality models can be effectively used to assess outcomes both within and between centres. Furthermore, the models provide a means of assessing the risk of post-transplantation mortality, giving clinicians important data on which to base strategic decisions about transplant policy in particular individuals or groups.

Normalised intrinsic mortality risk in liver transplantation: European Liver Transplant Registry study

BACKGROUND No model exists for liver transplantation to estimate the mortality risk in a given patient, and no standard by which to assess performance in different centres. We investigated the intrinsic mortality risk in the absence of known mortality risk factors. METHODS We identified mortality risk factors and risk ratios quantified in data from the European Liver Transplant Registry (22,089 patients at 102 centres in 18 countries) registered from 1988 to 1997. To develop a model of the intrinsic risk and the risk ratios for specific factors, univariate and multivariate analyses were done separately for the overall population, for adults, and for children younger than 15 years, and the number of deaths were estimated. We validated the model by comparing mortality in patients without risk factors with the model-adjusted mortality in patients with risk factors. FINDINGS Overall 5-year and 8-year actuarial survival was 66% (95% CI 65-66) and 61% (60-62). 65% of deaths occurred within 6 months. Retransplantation, transplantation for cancer, acute liver failure, fewer than 20 split-liver grafts per year, and a centre workload of fewer than 25 transplants per year were the main risk factors of 12 identified factors. 1-year and 5-year death rates among adults with no risk factors were similar to model estimates (15 [13-16] vs 14% [13-15], and 22 (20-24) vs 23% [21-24]). Corresponding data for paediatric transplants were 9% (7-12) compared with 11% (9-12) and 13% (10-17) compared with 14% (11-16). The reduction of mortality risk in high-volume centres was even greater in patients without risk factors (48 vs 23%, p<0.001). INTERPRETATION The normalised intrinsic mortality risk can be combined with the relative risk ratios of known risk factors to better estimate the mortality risk of a given procedure in a given patient. Centres can assess performance by removing potential bias of donor and recipient selection.

Analysis of factors predictive of mortality in alcoholic hepatitis and derivation and validation of the Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score

Introduction: Alcoholic hepatitis is associated with a high short term mortality. We aimed to identify those factors associated with mortality and define a simple score which would predict outcome in our population. Methods: We identified 241 patients with alcoholic hepatitis. Clinical and laboratory data were recorded on the day of admission (day 1) and on days 6–9. Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify variables related to outcome at 28 days and 84 days after admission. These variables were included in the Glasgow alcoholic hepatitis score (GAHS) and its ability to predict outcome assessed. The GAHS was validated in a separate dataset of 195 patients. Results: The GAHS was derived from five variables independently associated with outcome: age (p = 0.001) and, from day 1 results, serum bilirubin (p<0.001), blood urea (p = 0.019) and, from day 6–9 results, serum bilirubin (p<0.001), prothrombin time (p = 0.002), and peripheral blood white blood cell count (p = 0.001). The GAHS on day 1 had an overall accuracy of 81% when predicting 28 day outcome. In contrast, the modified discriminant function had an overall accuracy of 49%. Similar results were found using information at 6–9 days and when predicting 84 day outcome. The accuracy of the GAHS was confirmed by the validation study of 195 patients The GAHS was equally accurate irrespective of the use of the international normalised ratio or prothrombin time ratio, or if the diagnosis of alcoholic hepatitis was biopsy proven or on the basis of clinical assessment. Conclusions: Using variables associated with mortality we have derived and validated an accurate scoring system to assess outcome in alcoholic hepatitis. This score was able to identify patients at greatest risk of death throughout their admission.

Corticosteroids improve short-term survival in patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis: meta-analysis of individual patient data

Introduction A meta-analysis was performed using individual patient data from the five most recent randomised controlled trials (RCTs) which evaluated corticosteroids in severe alcoholic hepatitis (Maddrey discriminant function (DF) ≥32 or encephalopathy). This approach overcomes limitations associated with the use of literature data and improves the relevance of the study and estimates of effect size. Aims To compare 28-day survival between corticosteroid- and non-corticosteroid-treated patients and to analyse the response to treatment using the Lille model. Methods Individual patient data were obtained from five RCTs comparing corticosteroid treatment with placebo (n=3), enteral nutrition (n=1) or an antioxidant cocktail (n=1). Results 221 patients allocated to corticosteroid treatment and 197 allocated to non-corticosteroid treatment were analysed. The two groups were similar at baseline. 28-day survival was higher in corticosteroid-treated patients than in non-corticosteroid-treated patients (79.97±2.8% vs 65.7±3.4%, p=0.0005). In multivariate analysis, corticosteroids (p=0.005), DF (p=0.006), leucocytes (p=0.004), Lille score (p<0.00001) and encephalopathy (p=0.003) were independently predictive of 28-day survival. A subgroup analysis was performed according to the percentile distribution of the Lille score. Patients were classified as complete responders (Lille score ≤0.16; ≤35th percentile), partial responders (Lille score 0.16–0.56; 35th–70th percentile) and null responders (Lille ≥0.56; ≥70th percentile). 28-day survival was strongly associated with these groupings (91.1±2.7% vs 79.4±3.8% vs 53.3±5.1%, p<0.0001). Corticosteroids had a significant effect on 28-day survival in complete responders (HR 0.18, p=0.006) and in partial responders (HR 0.38, p=0.04) but not in null responders. Conclusion Analysis of individual data from five RCTs showed that corticosteroids significantly improve 28-day survival in patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis. The survival benefit is mainly observed in patients classified as responders by the Lille model.

Addressing liver disease in the UK: a blueprint for attaining excellence in health care and reducing premature mortality from lifestyle issues of excess consumption of alcohol, obesity, and viral hepatitis.

Liver disease in the UK stands out as the one glaring exception to the vast improvements made during the past 30 years in health and life expectancy for chronic disorders such as stroke, heart disease, and many cancers. Mortality rates have increased 400% since 1970, and in people younger than 65 years have risen by almost five-times. Liver disease constitutes the third commonest cause of premature death in the UK and the rate of increase of liver disease is substantially higher in the UK than other countries in western Europe. More than 1 million admissions to hospital per year are the result of alcohol-related disorders, and both the number of admissions and the increase in mortality closely parallel the rise in alcohol consumption in the UK during the past three decades. The aim of this Commission is to provide the strongest evidence base through involvement of experts from a wide cross-section of disciplines, making firm recommendations to reduce the unacceptable premature mortality and disease burden from avoidable causes and to improve the standard of care for patients with liver disease in hospital. From the substantial number of recommendations given in our Commission, we selected those that will have the greatest effect and that need urgent implementation. Although the recommendations are based mostly on data from England, they have wider application to the UK as a whole, and are in accord with the present strategy for health-care policy by the Scottish Health Boards, the Health Department of Wales, and the Department of Health and Social Services in Northern Ireland.